Modi’s Third Term: A Balancing Act

Since Narendra Modi secured a historic third term as Prime Minister. becoming only the second Indian leader after Jawaharlal Nehru to do so, India’s political and diplomatic landscape has seen a deep shift marked by both, expansion of foreign policy and growing domestic challenges. Three visible developments have emerged on the national and international stage so far on his third term ruling.

A Bolder Foreign Policy

In the realm of foreign policy, Modi has emerged as a more assertive and ambitious leader, particularly since his re-election. Almost immediately after securing his third term, Modi intensified diplomatic engagements, focusing on expanding the country’s influence on the global stage. This has involved both traditional state visits (track one diplomacy) and more nuanced, behind-the-scenes interactions (track two diplomacy).

The Minister of External Affairs under Modi’s direction, has been busy cultivating relationships with key global players. The latest one is Chile, seen close to China but ready to support India to be on the high table of the United Nations Security Council. Last month resetting the relationship with the Maldives. It is not only the External Affairs Minister, but other state and cabinet ministers like Rajnath Singh are also visiting different countries to build bridges, business, and trust with the respective world leaders.

The Prime Minister’s recent visits to Moscow and Kyiv, for instance, highlight his willingness to step into the role of mediator in the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. This development is particularly significant, as it reflects India’s evolving role from a regional power to a potential global mediator—a position that neither the United States nor Russia would have seriously considered for India just a few years ago.

Modi’s diplomatic engagements have not been limited to conflict resolution. He has also overseen the signing of numerous trade, cultural, and defence agreements with various countries, enhancing India’s economic and strategic partnerships. Yet, this ambitious foreign policy agenda also raises questions about whether Modi can sustain such an expansive role without overextending the country’s resources and diplomatic capital. Will India be able to regain the confidence and trust of the SAARC countries?

Consolidating Power in the Rajya Sabha

Throughout Modi’s earlier terms, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government encountered a major challenge in the Rajya Sabha, the upper house of Parliament. The BJP has now secured 96 seats, boosting the NDA’s total strength in the Upper House to 112 members.

The opposition holds 85 seats, with a few seats still vacant. Achieving a clear majority in the Rajya Sabha would enable the ruling NDA to lessen its dependence on regional parties. Lacking a majority there, the government frequently encountered resistance, with opposition parties blocking key legislation. This frustration is now a thing of the past. With the BJP-led NDA finally securing a majority in the Rajya Sabha, the government can now pass bills with far less opposition.

This majority represents not just a numerical victory but a strategic one, allowing the BJP and its allies to align both houses of Parliament with its broader ideological vision. However, this legislative strength also places a burden on the government to deliver on its promises, as expectations among its supporters have risen accordingly. But will allies allow this to happen needs to be waited and watched.

The Weight of Coalition Politics

While Modi’s foreign policy strides have drawn international attention, his gain in the Rajya Sabha is another step forward, however, his domestic challenges have been equally, if not more noticeable.

The BJP’s loss of a majority in the recent general election in Lok Sabha, though it returned to power with the support of allies in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), marks a departure from Modi’s previous electoral dominance. For the first time in 23 years, (National and Gujarat State rule) Modi has been forced to navigate the wavering waters of coalition politics at the national level, a task made more difficult by the divergent interests within the NDA.

This new political reality has led to a series of policy reversals and compromises that have somewhat questioned the government’s image of unyielding resolve. One notable example is the swift withdrawal of an advertisement for lateral entry into the civil service, which was cancelled just days after it was issued.

The decision came after criticism from opposition parties and NDA allies, who argued that these positions were being created to install BJP-favoured bureaucrats. The government’s backtracking on this issue highlights the growing influence of coalition partners and the opposition, who are increasingly able to exert pressure on the administration.

This is not an isolated case. Within weeks of assuming office for the third term, the Modi government has had to reverse or reconsider several decisions, including a draft broadcasting services bill and a controversial bill concerning the properties of Waqf, an Islamic charity. These reversals, while politically useful, expose the limitations of a government that can no longer act with the same degree of unilateral authority that it once enjoyed in its previous ten years of rule even, though then also NDA was existing but BJP called the shots.

The shift from outright majority to coalition governance has changed the nature of Modi’s administration. While the BJP remains the dominant force within the NDA, it now faces the challenge of keeping its allies satisfied—often at the cost of diluting its own agenda. This has led to a series of political compromises, and internal bickering within the BJP and its sister and support organisations that have raised questions about the government’s ability to deliver on its BJP manifesto promises.

For instance, the cancellation of the lateral entry advertisement was met with approval by BJP allies like Chirag Paswan, who had expressed concerns about the plan. This situation highlights the delicate balancing act that Modi must perform to keep his coalition intact. Each concession made to an ally represents a potential weakening of the government’s position, as it emboldens both the opposition and other coalition partners to push for their own demands.

These policy reversals have provided ample fodder for the opposition, particularly Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge, who has been quick to label them as “U-turns.” Kharge has pointed to the recent announcement of the Unified Pension Scheme as yet another example of the government’s shifting policies. The new pension scheme, which guarantees a minimum pension of Rs 10,000 per month, replaces the National Pension System (NPS) and marks a significant departure from the government’s earlier stance on pension reforms.

Testing Times Ahead

As Modi’s government grapples with these challenges, the coming months will be crucial. Several key state elections are on the horizon, including in Jammu & Kashmir, Haryana, in September followed by Maharashtra. These elections will serve as a litmus test for the BJP’s ability to maintain its political dominance, both within the NDA and across the country.

In the past decade, Modi’s government has shown a willingness to take bold, sometimes difficult, policy decisions—from the demonetization of high-value currency notes in 2016 to the abrogation of Article 370 in Jammu & Kashmir. However, the current political landscape, with its reduced parliamentary majority and reliance on coalition partners, makes it increasingly difficult to pursue such transformative policies.

The road ahead for Modi’s third term is fraught with both opportunities and challenges. Internationally, his bold foreign policy moves have the potential to elevate India’s standing as a global power. Domestically, however, the government must navigate the complexities of coalition politics, manage the expectations of its allies, and respond to an emboldened opposition.

As India prepares for a series of state elections that will set the stage for the next national contest, the Modi government’s ability to adapt to these new realities will be crucial. Success will require a careful balance between maintaining the BJP’s core agenda and accommodating the diverse interests of its coalition partners. In this delicate balancing act, Narendra Modi’s leadership will be tested as never before.

 Surinder Singh Oberoi,

National Editor Greater Kashmir