Kashmir's apple, walnuts battle Trump's trade war

Srinagar, Apr 3: As the Donald Trump administration has announced an additional 27 percent import duties on Indian goods, citing New Delhi's high tariffs on American products, apple and walnut growers in Kashmir are increasingly anxious.

Many fear the Indian government may lower import duties on these fruits to negotiate favourable terms with the US, potentially devastating Kashmir's horticulture industry.

Kashmir is a major apple producer and contributes 92 percent of India's total walnut production. Reduced import duties would make Washington apples and American walnuts significantly cheaper in the Indian market, undercutting local producers.

"This isn't just business—it's our heritage, our identity," says Bashir Ahmad Basheer, president of the Kashmir Valley Fruit Growers Cum Dealers Union (KVFGU).

"The potential influx of cheaper Washington apples will devastate our markets and crush small growers who have no alternative income."

Last month, Basheer's organisation, representing growers across 13 distinct regions including the production powerhouses of Srinagar, Sopore, and Baramulla, sent an impassioned letter to Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The five-page appeal detailed how Kashmir's prized horticultural sector—contributing 92 percent of India's walnut production and a significant share of its apples—stands at a precarious crossroads.

The letter highlighted a cascading series of crises that have already tested the resilience of Kashmir's orchard owners: political turbulence that disrupted harvest seasons, the catastrophic floods of September 2014 that washed away entire orchards, and increasingly erratic weather patterns linked to climate change that have damaged fruit quality and yield.

"We've endured nature's fury and political upheaval with remarkable resilience," Basheer noted in his letter, "but this trade policy shift could deliver the knockout blow to an already struggling industry."

The KVFGU's demands are specific and urgent: not only should India resist American pressure to lower import duties, but it should actually increase them to 100 percent on Washington apples to protect domestic production. Without such measures, Basheer warns that "the backbone of Kashmir's economy could snap irreparably."

Market dynamics already show troubling signs. At Srinagar's Parimpora fruit market, where transactions worth crores occur daily during peak season, wholesale prices for local apples have declined nearly 15 percent since rumors of potential tariff reductions began circulating.

"Buyers are holding back, anticipating cheaper imports," explains Ghulam Mohammad Bhat, a third-generation apple trader. "They're telling growers to accept lower prices now or risk getting even less when American apples flood the market."

The walnut sector faces parallel challenges. Despite Kashmiri walnuts' superior nutritional profile and distinctive flavor, they're increasingly overshadowed by cheaper, more visually appealing imports.

"Our walnut trees, some centuries old, grow naturally with minimal chemical intervention. The towering 30-meter giants produce nuts with significantly higher oil content and medicinal properties not found in imported varieties," said Ghulam Muhammad Khan, a grower.

This natural advantage, however, has become a market disadvantage. Bahadur Khan, who heads the Kashmir Dry Fruit Association, points out the bitter irony: "Our organic, naturally grown walnuts are losing to California's hybrid varieties that look prettier but lack the same nutritional value. If tariffs are adjusted downward, we'll be completely priced out."

These developments come against the backdrop of Modi and Trump's February joint statement, which referenced plans to "negotiate the first tranche of a mutually beneficial, multi-sectoral Bilateral Trade Agreement by fall of 2025." Kashmir's growers fear their interests will be sacrificed on the altar of larger geopolitical considerations.