Indus Waters Treaty: India Tilts the Balance
For the last 65 years, the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) has withstood wars, tensions, changing geopolitics and shifting relationships between India and Pakistan amid World Bank mediation.
But in recent years, the dynamics surrounding the treaty have faintly yet significantly changed, favouring India. The latest ruling by a World Bank-appointed Neutral Expert on the Kishenganga and Ratle hydroelectric projects is symbolic of this shift, giving New Delhi a strategic and diplomatic upper hand.
The treaty, signed in 1960 after nine years of negotiation under World Bank mediation, was a rare instance of Indo-Pak cooperation. It divided the six major rivers of the Indus Basin: India was granted unrestricted use of the three eastern rivers—Beas, Ravi, and Sutlej—while Pakistan received control over the three western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.
Though the agreement then was seen as generous to Pakistan, it also limited India’s ability to fully utilise its own water resources. However, with the flowing time, passing by decades, and evolving visible changes, like climate and environmental challenges, increasing population and infrastructure, shifting geopolitical and diplomatic dynamics are gradually supporting this equation in India’s favour.
On January 21, 2025, India welcomed a crucial ruling by the Neutral Expert, appointed under the treaty’s dispute resolution framework. The decision reinforced India’s long-standing argument that disputes over technical aspects of hydroelectric projects on western rivers should be resolved by a Neutral Expert rather than the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague, as Pakistan had sought.
The Ministry of External Affairs, in a press release, said, “The Neutral Expert has issued a press release on 20th January 2025 on his competence to address certain issues related to projects under the Indus Waters Treaty. India welcomes the decision given by the Neutral Expert under Paragraph 7 of Annexure F to the Indus Waters Treaty, 1960. The decision upholds and vindicates India’s stand that all seven (07) questions that were referred to the Neutral Expert, in relation to the Kishenganga and Ratle hydroelectric projects, are differences falling within his competence under the Treaty.”
“It has been India’s consistent and principled position that the Neutral Expert alone has the competence under the Treaty to decide these differences. Having upheld his own competence, which comports with India’s view, the Neutral Expert will now proceed to the next (merits) phase of his proceeding. This phase will culminate in a final decision on the merits of each of the seven differences. Being committed to preserving the sanctity and integrity of the Treaty, India will continue to participate in the Neutral Expert process so that the differences are resolved in a manner consistent with the provisions of the Treaty, which does not provide for parallel proceedings on the same set of issues. For this reason, India does not recognise or participate in the illegally constituted Court of Arbitration proceedings.”
The press release further added that the Governments of India and Pakistan also remain in touch on the matter of modification and review of the Indus Waters Treaty, under Article XII (3) of the Treaty.
The ruling marks a significant moment in the broader battle over water rights. It acknowledges that the seven issues raised concerning the Kishenganga and Ratle projects fall under the Neutral Expert’s jurisdiction. This bolsters India’s position and effectively nullifies the parallel proceedings at the PCA, which India refused to recognise.
For years, Pakistan has objected to Indian hydroelectric projects, arguing that they violate IWT provisions by obstructing water flow. While the treaty permits India to construct run-of-the-river projects on western rivers, Pakistan frequently contests their designs, especially concerning pondage capacity, spillways, and outflows. The Kishenganga and Ratle projects have been points of contention for more than ten years. Pakistan has always been raking the issue and even using the water scarcity issue as a war cry against India. Pakistan initially asked for a Neutral Expert’s intervention in 2015 but later escalated the matter to the PCA in 2016, bypassing the established dispute resolution mechanism.
India viewed this as a violation of the treaty’s framework and refused to participate in the arbitration process. The World Bank, which must remain neutral while observing the issue, was under much pressure from both sides and launched parallel proceedings, which further complicated the matter.
With the Neutral Expert now validating India’s stance, many of the political observers monitoring India-Pakistan relations say, “Islamabad’s legal and diplomatic manoeuvring has hit a roadblock.” So, the latest decision by the neutral observers that was welcomed by New Delhi weakens Pakistan’s position in future disputes as India is bent on reinforcing its ability to manage its water resources within treaty limits.
India’s Call for Treaty Modification
India has been asking for a broader revision of the Indus Water Treaty. New Delhi has sent a formal notice to Islamabad seeking a review of the treaty under Article XII(3). India has asked the need to address new environmental, demographic, and security realities. It is a strategic departure from India’s traditional approach of adhering to the treaty’s original terms.
Some of the factors necessitated for modification are:
The Indus Basin of late is facing rising temperatures because of climate change, erratic weather patterns and shifting monsoon cycles that are decreasing the Himalayan glaciers. It is estimated that up to 60% of the region’s glaciers could vanish by the end of the century, impacting water flows. Erratic monsoons and increasing water demand with the increase of population in both countries are further complicating matters that are massively affecting the Indus River system, presently seen under much stress.
We all know that presently, Pakistan remains highly water-stressed, as reported by the media, with per capita water availability declining. India, too, faces mounting water shortage and management challenges, including natural disasters, which have often led to the flowing water bodies changing their path. A revised treaty could incorporate adaptive mechanisms to address these evolving challenges keeping in view the climate changes and water scarcity.
Observers also say that Pakistan is an agrarian country. Its agricultural land will face more threats with the declining water availability. Pakistan already is grappling with internal water mismanagement and outdated irrigation techniques. They have hardly adopted modern techniques and continue to depend on the old, outdated techniques and systems in a satellite-friendly and digitalised tech-friendly world. To ease out their internal political pressure, Pakistan, which needs to modernise water governance and address its systemic inefficiencies, continues to externalise the crisis by blaming India.
Meanwhile, if we compare with India, it has not only improved its water conservation and storage but also worked a lot on irrigation efficiency by adopting modern techniques, training farmers and allowing them to manage resources more effectively.
Secondly, hydroelectric power is a critical component of India’s renewable energy push. With increasing energy demands and commitments to reduce carbon emissions, harnessing water resources efficiently is a national priority. Pakistan’s objections to projects that comply with the treaty’s provisions are seen as an impediment to India’s sustainable development goals and energy needs.
Another factor is cross-border terrorism and hostilities are seen as a hindrance in maintaining a neighbourly relationship; it has massively strained diplomatic relations between India and Pakistan. India has strongly signalled that Pakistan cannot expect unconditional cooperation on water-sharing while sponsoring cross-border terrorism.
Also, India’s economic and strategic clout has grown significantly since 1960. The treaty, formulated in the early years of independence, does not reflect current power dynamics. It is more than 65 years, and New Delhi, under new geopolitical realities, sees an opportunity to assert greater control over its share of water resources and management.
While the treaty has historically been seen as a successful model of water-sharing, it was believed that the treaty has the ability to withstand the mounting challenges that might be political or climate change, but not anymore.
The biggest challenge for India remains from China
While India and Pakistan remain locked in their water-sharing dispute, China looms as a potential spoiler. China, as we all know, controls the upper reaches of the Indus, and its tributaries give it considerable leverage. China has been constructing multiple dams on the upper Indus in Tibet, which could alter water availability downstream. Furthermore, China’s close strategic ties with Pakistan could see it playing a more active role in water diplomacy, possibly using its projects as a bargaining tool in broader Indo-China tensions.
In recent years, China has also developed its own infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Pakistan and Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir, including hydroelectric developments in Gilgit-Baltistan.
India will need to remain vigilant to prevent any indirect influence of China, which might, in the long run, as a proxy, try to exert over Indus water negotiations. The political observers warn that the possibility of China leveraging its upstream advantage to counterbalance India’s growing dominance in water-sharing arrangements cannot be ruled out.
India now has an advantage where the recent Neutral Expert’s ruling marks a turning point in the way IWT disputes are handled, strengthening India’s hand in future negotiations. India is also unlikely to withdraw unilaterally from the treaty, given its reputation for honouring international agreements.
However, it perhaps will continue to press for modifications, using climate change, demographic shifts, and energy security as justifications. The question is whether Pakistan is willing to engage constructively in this process, accepting the changes, modernisation or clinging to outdated objections.
The Indus Waters Treaty, long considered a diplomatic success, is undergoing a quiet but significant transformation under stress. With the Neutral Expert affirming India’s interpretation of dispute resolution mechanisms, New Delhi has gained the upper hand in water negotiations. India is steadily but surely tilting the treaty’s implementation in its favour. The world will be watching as the next phase of the Indus water equation unfolds.
Author is National Editor,
Greater Kashmir
