Inside Maldives: Between Politics and Geopolitics
Among South Asian nations, none is quite as singular as the Maldives, a scatter of coral jewels adrift in the Indian Ocean. Though small in size, it looms large on the geopolitical map, its strategic location drawing the gaze of global powers. The archipelago’s fragmented geography has long challenged movement within, yet it remains one of the region’s most scrutinised places. Malé, the bustling capital, is more than a political hub; it is a focal point in the shifting tides of Indian Ocean geopolitics and geoeconomics. Beneath the surface of strategic maneuvering, Maldivian society wrestles with its own set of anxieties: deepening political divides, economic uncertainty, demographic strains, and the ever-present threat of climate change. To truly understand the Maldives, one must look beyond the chessboard of great powers and delve into the country’s internal complexities.
In the recent past, when the presidential elections took place in 2023, analysts jumped to conclude that it was a referendum call on ‘India’s presence’ in the country. The Maldivian voters had more complex issues to vote for or against, apart from the misplaced Mohamed Muizzu’s “India out” call. His rise to power was shaped by internal party fractures, governance fatigue, and economic concerns. All he did was to milk sentiment with the well-crafted sovereignty narrative, and “India out” was just the rallying cry. The actual anger stemmed from the deeper frustrations about transparency, debt, and perceptions of elite capture. Neither did his win push India out, nor did his promise of getting former president Abdullah Yameen out of prison come true. Instead, India’s clear stand on issues and wise diplomatic outreach led to the celebration of 6 decades of friendship and Prime Minister Narender Modi visiting the country in July 2025 and signing some significant agreements.
It isn’t the geopolitical posturing during elections that shapes the political behaviour of Maldevians; rather, old patterns of personalised leadership, familial networks, and ideological hybridism continue to shape it. The split between President Solih and former President Nasheed weakened the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), creating a vacuum that helped the Progressive Alliance to creep in. The rise of conservative religious forces who dived deep to shape and weaponise the public opinion on sovereignty and foreign policy, which helped Presidential candidate Mohammad Muizzu reap the electoral benefits.
Beyond the theaters of geopolitical jostling and tightly packed skyline lies a country witnessing a shift which stems from the concerns of rapid urbanisation, housing shortages, population pressures and youth unemployment. Tourism drives the engine of the economy but deepens inequalities, and away from the glare of overcrowded resorts, people struggle to meet their daily basic needs. Maldevians not only compete with each other but with expatriate workforces and external investors. It is natural when such a sentiment walks up the ladder of diplomacy, shaping how the narrative of sovereignty, foreign investments, and debt restructuring and sustainability is framed. This upward trend has become so intertwined that basic issues that drive politics become secondary.
The leadership has failed to put up a comprehensive economic model, given its absence of intra-country mobility, most of the country suffers from vulnerable connectivity, maritime barriers, a very small proportion of the land fit for agriculture, and hence importing food items and basic necessity items. Tourism-backed economy, debt-ridden and import dependence make it highly exposed to external shocks. Pandemic years revealed this vulnerability, and the whole country came to a standstill. The structural weaknesses remain as the leadership pitches for more powers and massive cuts in freedoms, a legacy of one-party dominance for decades. In the absence of space for free public discourse, Islamists thrive and shape the narrative. The inherent weaknesses of the economy remain despite India extending its new lines of credit, currency support, budget assistance, and project financing. Chinese loans under BRI created long-term obligations, and the country bets heavily on ‘diversification’ with Gulf countries, the US and other countries. The reality is that no single partner can address the ‘Maldives economic dilemma’. Hence, there is a visible shift in Male’s strategic thinking that reflects its desire to diversify both debt sources and security cooperation. Although for a crowded ocean country, it isn’t a luxury but a survival imperative.
In its foreign policy structure, the Maldives has practised a distinctive style of small-state diplomacy. It alternates between hedging, balancing, and bandwagoning. India has been the closest partner and a non-negligible big economy that has always had extended generous concessions towards this island country. China has, over time, made some significant inroads and marked its presence significantly. Maldives may oscillate but can’t disengage from India given the geographical necessity and pro-India sentiment in the country, and also cultural proximity with India. President Muizzu’s early moves, requesting the withdrawal of Indian military personnel, fell flat in just 2 years. The essence of Malé’s strategic calculus is to expand choices, avoid overdependence, and manage external powers without being consumed by them.
The climate crisis poses an existential question to the leadership of the Maldives, which faces more unforgiving challenges than high politics. The country is situated in the midst of a storm of climate collapse. The sea levels are rising, coastlines eroding, and corals bleaching at a threatening speed. The tidal surges, storms looming, and saltwater intrusions will have a critical bearing on the engine of the economy: tourism. The advocacy for climate justice is anchored in a lived reality. India has been persuading the leadership to shift to renewable energy, solar desalination, and resilient infrastructure, but the scale of the crisis requires a broader consensus. The Maldives has to think strategically in order to avoid a climate catastrophe, and the solutions don’t lie in geopolitical rebalancing alone. It has to partner with like-minded nations like India and cut its anti-India rhetoric, and not cede space to Islamists. The Maldives will need climate financing that matches the magnitude of its challenge, not symbolic pledges. No foreign policy can be sustainable if it does not account for the climate emergency.
The Maldives-India story does not originate like any straw in the wind; both countries share cultural and historical links. India remains the quickest responder in crisis, a critical line of lending and most notably the biggest source of tourism, hence injecting life into the engine of the economy of the Maldives. From one-party dominance to a multiparty system, Maldivians saw an opening for a stream of freedoms. A pro-India sentiment organically evolved out of people’s choices and love for India. This sentiment borders on democratic socialisation, political pluralism, decentralisation, and economic transparency, threatening entrenched interests like opposition parties, business elites, and Islamist groups who put all their weight behind India-Out sloganeering. President Muizzu exploited public anxieties about sovereignty and Islam, and India became collateral damage in this political contest. This episode, like earlier ones, reveals the resilience of the relationship; both countries realise the importance of the mutual relationship and have avoided any volatile headwinds. The frictions will likely recur, given the Maldives’ political volatility and the wider Indian Ocean contest. Replacing India entirely is neither practical nor beneficial. For India, the path forward lies in confidence, patient engagement, and dialogue with all political actors, rather than reactive policy moves.
It is for the Maldives to decide how far it can hold centrality in the restless ocean amid its internal political fractionalism, fragility of its economy, and endangered environment when all its strategic bets take precedence. For the larger South Asian region, it is more than an island nation and is a bellwether of the Indian Ocean’s future. The biggest challenge is thus for the leadership to prudently navigate the competing pressures. The country has to walk through competing interests without alienating indispensable partners.
The author is a Researcher in South Asian geopolitics.
