Crude supply, inflation risks for India if war spreads to West Asia: Economists

Chennai, Oct 8: Senior Economists are in a wait-and-watch mode as to the impact of Israel – Hamas war on the Indian economy while agreeing there may be a crude oil supply challenge if the war spreads across West Asia.

They said it is a bit early to comment on the impact as the situation has to be monitored.

“In the worst case, there is also a likelihood of the conflict spreading across West Asia and involving several nations. That may lead to further supply challenges in crude oil where supply cuts by OPEC+ (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other oil producing countries) have already led to a rise in global prices,” Suman Chowdhury, the Chief Economist and Head of Research, Acuite Ratings & Research Ltd told IANS.

Chowdhury said with the rise in geo-political conflict, the global economy and trade may face further slowdown with a resurgence of inflation risks and higher volatility in the global markets which in turn can have an adverse effect on the rupee.

“However, the direct impact of the conflict is going to be limited as Israel’s trade with India is a little over $10 billion with exports to Israel at $8.5 billion and imports at $2.3 billion in FY23,” Chowdhury said.

On his part Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, Bank of Baroda told IANS: “The economic impact will be seen through oil price first followed by currency.”

On Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) likely action, Chowdhury said it would only watch the evolving scenario and is unlikely to take any action at this point in time.

“As RBI gets more watchful, bond yields will stay high. Inflation impact will be seen on the Wholesale Price Index and not Consumer Price Index. As retail fuel prices will not be changed, higher crude prices will show on the oil marketing companies or fiscal if the government absorbs the same,” Sabnavis said.