Winter of Discontent

Winter is not just a season in Jammu and Kashmir, it defines its geopolitics both  internally and externally.  This season has  been very critical to its internal problems  over the past 35 years and it  has not come out of that  cycle yet. This time when 2024 will eclipse into  2025, the winter has thrown new set of challenges if surmounted by the stakeholders can turn into much sought after opportunities. This is something beyond the quest for peace.

Peace is a cornerstone to all that J&K wishes for itself and the country wants in this territory  as  whatever happens here impacts minds across the country. The challenges so far were due to the militancy; how to guide the region towards normalcy and cut down on the inner conflict. The history has shown that winter has been the source of inner conflict which became basis for the external forces to exploit the situation. There are umpteenth number of examples  when winter gave birth to bigger conflicts – mayhem of all sorts – for the rest of the year. It should have changed.

But as of today, Jammu and Kashmir is in a struggling mode. This struggle may lead to a leap into future; of certainty and stability, or it can make it to sink in yet another whirlpool of uncertainties. The biggest crisis at the moment is who is the port of call for the people. The population  is  in a fix, whose door should they be knocking  in the winter when water and power shortages have become severe and there is hardly anything  to inspire hope in them.

Here, it needs to be noted and understood, the whole expanse of the problems and the addresses that could resolve their day-to-day problems changed with the abrogation of Article 370 and the dismissal of the state – it is imprudent to call it division of the state into two union territories as the whole concept of state is now under transformation. The Article 370 was done away with the promise of ushering in a new Kashmir in which everything would be addressed in a perfect manner, and creation of UT of the erstwhile state  of Jammu and Kashmir was seen as a means of achieving the same. The promise was for new J&K not the state of Jammu and Kashmir. At least for the Centre, the statehood was not part of the exercise that fitted into its larger  efforts for restoration of peace. It should have been understood from the day one.

The winter 2024-2025 has begun. Things are freezing. There is an apprehension that these may land into deep freeze  if not addressed in time.  It is the first winter in years when people are unsure whom to give a shout out for addressing their issues. The  days of basking in the glory of huge mandate for the National Conference government are getting replaced by impatience. The people want results. In this age of social media, patience comes at a premium.

Newer challenges and situations have surfaced  in addition to all those in the past. Pakistan uses this season to strategize its moves on Kashmir. It has not given up on this obsession despite murky situation gripping the whole of the neighbouring country – frequent terror attacks on its civilians and soldiers, sectarian clashes and ever declining economy. The situation in Pakistan occupied Jammu and Kashmir where , a full-fledged rebellion against Pakistani establishment is brewing and may burst anytime. It is not a fake narrative as some sections may claim; the fact is that Pakistani commentators and media have acknowledged that fault lines are widening  and could disrupt the whole relationship between the mainland Pakistan and the territories under its occupation.

Last Sunday, December 8, Pakistan sponsored POJK government had to repeal  its controversial Peaceful Assembly and {Public Order Ordinance, 2024, which imposed  a seven-year jail term for peaceful protestors. Pakistani newspaper, The News International in its December 8 Editorial commented: “The government’s response has been inadequate, a misstep reminiscent of the unrest in May this year, when protests over inflated electricity bills and taxes spiralled out of control. Then, a delayed response cost lives and inflicted injuries …”

This helps in drawing comparison   which strengthens our narrative on Pakistan  and brutalities it has launched on the people in POJK; but that doesn’t  desist Pakistan  from exporting terrorism into Jammu and Kashmir nor it  helps Delhi in resolving issues within this UT. The population here is grappling with severe water and electricity shortage, and the temperatures are quite harsh. Should the government that had been running the state of affairs since 2018, and particularly so after it was given a lower pedestal of UT on 31st October 2019, wash off its hands from the crisis simply because an elected government has come up to share the turf, though there is hardly anything in its kitty to do - neither powers nor money .

In a zone where psyche of conflict has traversed  generations, such shortages inflame passions. This winter, there are two narratives crisscrossing each other that the elected government is not fulfilling its promise of providing 24x7 electricity, and that the Centre is not helping the government in overcoming this crisis. The people are aware of this reality, but that doesn’t stop them from raising the issue. Kashmir is already seeing it as a winter of  discontent, while BJP is pinning down the government on these issues  with the sole objective of showing it in the poor light. There is a clear attempt to  say that the government is good for nothing, and since BJP is  a dominant political force in Jammu region, it is invoking its age-old thesis of Kashmiri Muslim-centric parties discriminating against the Hindu dominated region. That’s politics.

Back in the Valley, non-NC parties are seeking to drive another narrative, leave aside the promise of the restoration of Article 370 or statehood, the government has failed in doing the bare minimum of providing electricity to people. The electricity in Kashmir winters has several elements involved in it –  as a basic necessity in the freezing temperatures, absence of which is not only physical darkness but political dark times as well. This works to the advantage of those interests who blame Centre for pushing the population to dark times. This is the signal of the winter discontent. It is more serious than the external threats as it creates a space for the conflict to make its presence felt.

Time to understand consequences of such perceptions – for the the elected government,  Raj Bhawan and Delhi. It is time for all three to come to the rescue of J&K to make this winter to herald us into a new spring.