Will DPAP impact Congress performance in Udhampur, Jammu elections?

Jammu, Mar 30: Though two regions of Jammu and Kashmir always imbue a different character and flavour as far as electoral politics is concerned yet parliamentary elections-2024 are going to add a zing to this distinctiveness.

Undoubtedly, this has a direct connection to the sea-change in political scenario and equations, post August 5, 2019 developments in J&K, which also witnessed emergence of new key players.

Split, merger, home-coming have always been so intrinsic to the political landscape and J&K is no exception to this rule. In the past, it happened. Post 2019 saw amplification of this process. Future too holds many new permutations and combinations, one is convinced.

Yet 2024, which for all purposes, will bring epoch-making political moments for J&K in the wake of much awaited assembly elections by or before September 30, has already brought in interesting matrices in the run-up to parliamentary elections.

Amusing aspect is- the same matrix (emergence of two new key players) is being viewed differently in two regions of Kashmir and Jammu. Players are old, tried and tested – yet in a new Avatar! Their role may be one yet its impact will be entirely different in two regions.

While for Kashmir, too many cooks are spoiling the ‘political broth’ – at least well-established mainstream (mainly regional) parties certainly hold this grudge against Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP) and J&K Apni Party.

Presence of three new regional competitors (although Jammu and Kashmir People’s Conference in its new competitive mould has already completed over a decade) has made the situation murkier, mainly for established regional mainstream parties i.e., J&K National Conference (NC) and J&K Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

This has emerged as an additional threat for the main stakeholder NC, besides post delimitation - the changed demographic, geographic profiles of constituencies, which it won in 2019 – mainly Anantnag-Rajouri Lok Sabha seat. The cushion of I.N.D.I. Alliance had at least brought two other potential threats (Congress and PDP) to its side, (at least till the time PDP does not express its explicit desire to join the fray).

Scenario, though not of PDP’s liking as it was feeling slighted due to, what its leadership had described, “arrogance of NC”, had put the latter (NC) in a somewhat comfortable position with no fear of vote division. Yet three key players, too, have their specific pockets of influence in the constituencies, which NC considers as its unchallenged strongholds (more so, in absence of PDP and Congress). Culprit is – “....same block” theory.

Further, the changed scenario and fragmentation of constituencies too may go to the advantage of anyone – this is all in the realm of speculation.

It is this state of perplexity that has engaged NC and other stakeholders (except J&K People’s Conference) in a ‘wait-n-watch’ game before announcing their nominees. Even J&K People’s Conference has only announced its candidate (Sajad Lone) for Baramulla seat. Will new key players also forge an alliance to avoid division of votes or pull some other card to outwit political detractors? Confusion persists for players as well as voters, who too are keen to know- who winks first?

However, for Jammu, the same phenomenon is proving to be “the more the merrier”, if not for anyone else, certainly for Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Scenario is so distinct here as, in contrast to Kashmir, Jammu is still a traditional stronghold of national and not regional mainstream parties, as per the trends, more so in parliamentary polls. It has stuck to either Congress or BJP, without springing any surprise, at least in the past two decades or so.

NC and PDP, undoubtedly, have strong pockets of influence in two parliamentary constituencies of Jammu region yet their ‘hand’ is tied – reason same I.N.D.I. Alliance. They are not contesting to give an open field to Congress against BJP to ensure there’s no division of votes.

One important factor is – be it NC or PDP, they mainly share the vote-bank of Congress. To the disadvantage of Congress, even new key players, particularly DPAP and J&K Apni Party, too hold sway in the same pockets, which former (Congress) considers as part of its bastion. It is not unusual also because newbies are being mentored by “old-hands” of Congress, NC and PDP.  While DPAP’s entry in Udhampur parliamentary election has already frayed nerves in Congress, suspense will end about the Jammu parliamentary seat as well in the next couple of days. So far, DPAP and J&K Apni Party have not come clear vis-a-vis their intent to be in the fray in Jammu constituency as well.

For Congress, the matter of trepidation will be that if they (or anyone of them) decide to contest, it will help ‘lotus’ at the expense of ‘hand.’

Though on the face of it, Congress leaders claim that the party’s performance will not be impacted by either DPAP or others (read J&K Apni Party also) yet their vitriolic statements against ‘newbies’ convey something else.

If anyone is still unable to comprehend, just recall statements of Congress leaders addressing “newbies” as “A”, “B” and “C” parties of BJP. Nervousness is palpable also when speculations are rife about emergence of “third-front.”

Yes, DPAP will impact the performance of Congress – this oblique confirmation came directly from one of its most straight-forward leaders Chowdhary Lal Singh, who has just not returned home but also bagged nomination for Udhampur LS seat. Though his statement was a dig at his senior former colleague Ghulam Nabi Azad yet it unwittingly conveyed an obvious fact also.

“Former Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad, himself, is not contesting from Udhampur because of fear of losing. DPAP has fielded G M Saroori not to win but to cut votes,” Lal Singh had stated, while speaking to the media.

Are there still any doubts?