Why J&K’s fertility rate is falling

Srinagar, Jan 1: While the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Jammu and Kashmir is a concerning 1.4 by NFHS-5, signalling an imminent population decline, the difference in TFR between rural and urban areas tells a deeper story. This gap sheds light on the composite reasons contributing to the decline in the number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime.

TFR, a complex demographic indicator influenced by multiple factors, currently stands at 1.5 in rural areas and 1.2 in urban areas in J&K.

Lack of Support

A senior demographer working in J&K attributed the low TFR to rapid urbanisation and thinning family incomes.

More couples are moving to urban areas in search of employment, leaving behind extended families who could have provided crucial childcare support.

This trend creates “nuclear islands with thin populations.”

“A solo-living, supportless, working couple cannot fancy a big family. It comes at a cost,” the expert said.

Unemployment

The demographer also pointed to J&K's “scary” unemployment situation as a significant factor.

“An unemployment rate of 30 percent is deceptive. We must account for underemployment to understand where we truly stand in terms of income,” he said.

The demographer elaborated that many postgraduates were working as peons, and while they might be counted as employed, their earnings were inadequate to support larger families.

“In this scenario, families are reluctant to forego the income of either parent and prefer to limit the number of children they have. Often, couples now prefer to have just one child,” he said.

Government Policy and Family Size

Senior Specialist at the Population Foundation of India, Martand Kaushik criticised the government policies that implicitly dictate family size.

“Somewhere, things have gone awry in trying to enforce an ‘ideal family size,’” he said.

Kaushik said that policies often disincentivise families with more than two children by withholding benefits like childcare leave, scholarships, and even maternity leave in some cases.

The data shows J&K’s contraceptive prevalence rate among married women aged 15-49 is 60 percent, further influencing family planning.

Late Marriages and Dropping Fertility

According to the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, women in J&K marry at an average age of 26 – the highest in India, compared to the national average of 22.1 years.

This delay significantly reduces the reproductive window.

Noted gynaecologist, Prof Shahnaz Taing emphasised the importance of having children before the age of 28, explaining that the quality and number of eggs decline thereafter.

“In Kashmir, marriages often happen in the late 20s or early 30s, further limiting the chances of multiple children,” she said.

Dr Shahnaz said that there are issues like PCOS, which affects a good number of women.

She said PCOS was not good news for fertility and the number of women having PCOS was increasing due to lifestyle changes in society.

“Overall, PCOS is higher in rice-eating societies,” she said.

Evolving Roles of Women

Noted gyneacologist Prof Farhat Jabeen linked late marriages to financial, societal, and personal factors.

“More women are entering the workforce, particularly in the private sector, where there is often no provision for paid maternity leave. Women lose income, and sometimes even their jobs, with the birth of a child,” she said.

The changing family structure, especially in urban areas, exacerbates the issue.

“There is often a lack of family backup to take care of children when the mother is at work,” Jabeen said.

Prof Taing noted that parents now prefer their daughters to be financially secure and employed before marriage, which further delays the process.

“Completing education, finding a job, finding a match, marrying, and planning a family – all of this takes away crucial time,” she said.