Why Jammu new epicenter of terrorism?

Ever since the modern state of Jammu and Kashmir, which of late has been demoted to a Union Territory, came into being way back in 1948 with a special status protecting rights, it has all through been on a streak of unpredictability. The unpredictability factor has been internal - on account of political uncertainties due to strings being pulled from New Delhi, and external - because of Pakistan’s obsession with Kashmir (read Jammu and Kashmir).

The governments might have changed at the national level with a corresponding shift-in the erstwhile state and now the UT- in the colour and nomenclature of the dispensations, the ground situation has through the decades remained fragile. And unpredictable. It has all through been difficult to guess or predict the events- political as well as otherwise.

The current spurt in acts of terrorism, with a focus now on Jammu region, has added a new dimension to this state of fragility. This comes in the midst of claims by none other than Prime Minister Mr Narendra Modi and Home Minister Mr Amit Shah that terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir is taking its last breath.

The fresh terrorist attack on an army convoy in remote hilly area of Machedi, 150 kilometers from Kathua district (in Jammu region) headquarters, in which five army personnel were martyred, has opened the debate afresh, about the prevailing ground situation in the Union Territory. This is the fifth attack in a month in Jammu region. Apart from the civilian casualties, 43 soldiers have been killed in these attacks in less than three years. In the interregnum though Kashmir Valley was comparatively peaceful, the sporadic incidents of terrorist attacks in the form of targeted killing did take place.

It raises vital questions. Firstly, it is about the fragility of peace in the region and secondly Pakistan remains to be a constant source of encouraging terrorism. The only change in its strategy being that the theatre of terrorism has shifted from the north of Pir Panjal range, which separates Jammu from Kashmir Valley, to its southern areas on one side and plain and rugged terrain of Jammu on the other.

Why a shift in the confrontation zone from the Valley to Jammu? The security experts have varied theories on this aspect of Pak-sponsored terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir with a common refrain being the change of strategy by the perpetrators of terrorism. There is a political aside also to it.

Interestingly, this shift coincided with August 5, 2019 abrogation of Article 370 of the Constitution and the resultant constitutional changes of far-reaching ramifications. Whatever be the change, as the experience of past seven decades shows, it has to have a direct political impact particularly in the matter of governance model. The current Lt Governor form of government has its own fallouts - negative and positive.

The intensification of terrorist attacks, more so in Jammu, ahead of the Supreme Court mandated assembly poll deadline of September 30, has raised doubts and caused serious concerns on whether the deadline be met particularly in view of the building security scenario. However, there is the silver-lining which came in the form of assurance by none other than Prime Minister Mr Narendra Modi on holding assembly elections.

Jammu, and Kashmir are two diverse regions of the erstwhile state. Diversity in all forms- from language, ethnicity, demography, dress, eating habits, history and geography. This diversity also has an important but different meaning for the sponsors of terrorism. Unfortunately, this diversity has also been used in an unhealthy manner by the pursuers of art of politics both in New Delhi as well as in Srinagar with Jammu always, and presently as well, playing an insignificant role of a backroom boy.

A healthy unity has to be found in this diversity and not viewing the two regions separately from any angel. The challenge of terrorism was and is to the entire Jammu and Kashmir, and not Kashmir alone. The recent events have proved this. Any strategy either meeting the challenge of terrorism or the governance model, should take into account Jammu and Kashmir as one unit and not either Jammu versus Kashmir, or isolating one unit at the cost of the other.

Terrorism or separatist tendencies in Muslim dominant Kashmir were meant to create a majoritarian view on the lines of a separatist agenda. The only stumbling block in this endeavour could have been the miniscule Kashmiri Pandit, Sikhs and Dogra Hindus, who had no alternative but to leave the Valley as terrorism raised its ugly head. This is certainly not to discount the significant presence of a sizable section of the Muslims who stayed back and held the fort.

The acts of terrorism targeting Jammu region acquires a different meaning in the face of ethnic and demographic mix of the area. Any act of Pak-sponsored terrorism, as happened in Kathua, Reasi, Poonch and Rajouri districts of Jammu region in the recent past which have mixed population, has potential to create a communal situation. That precisely could be the gameplan of the handlers from across the border.

The developing situation in Jammu areas has to be viewed in the light of overall political situation in the country which is communally polarized and surcharged. A welcome balancing act has come in the form of Lok Sabha poll verdict which has increased interdependence in the functioning of the parliamentary democracy. Nevertheless, the mixed population of Jammu with proportion of dominant religious groups varying from district to district, could act as a trigger for inter-community tension in view of such terror attacks.

The spurt in terrorist attacks in Jammu region has to be seen from this political angel. All efforts of Pak-sponsored terrorism to create such a situation have to be thwarted. This has to be done on two fronts. On the security front the situation is being deftly handled by the security paraphernalia.

More important will be how the political players in the game - elections or no elections- behave and the manner in which they act. They must desist from short-term and shortsighted goals of ensuring electoral victory in Jammu and Kashmir to prove political points.

The approach has to be largehearted, futuristic and long-term. The first step in this direction is to hold assembly elections as per apex court directions and revert to statehood status. This will help defeat the nefarious designs of terrorists and separatists.

The recently held Lok Sabha elections have set a benchmark. Holding peaceful elections with higher voter percentage is a success story of the Indian democracy. This has to be replicated with greater improvement in the impending assembly elections which should be held well in time. Postponing the elections particularly on security grounds will only embolden the anti-national and separatist elements.

Increase in terrorist activities in Jammu region should be seen as an alarm bell. In all twenty-seven attacks took place since 2019. Half-a-dozen of it took place during the last over one month.

The recent attacks include:

1. Attack on an Air Force vehicle on May 4.
2. Attack on a pilgrim bus near Vaishno Devi on June 9.
3. Attack in Hiranagar, Kathua on June 11.
4. Attack on an army post in Chattargala on Bhaderwah-Pathankot Road, on J& K-Punjab border, on June 11 night.
5. Attack on an SOG vehicle at Gundoh in Doda district on June 12
6. Attack on an army convoy in Machedi, Kathua district, on July 8.

This is a trend which explains the change in strategy of the harbourers of terrorism. There is no doubt that those dealing with the challenges on the security domain not only have taken note of the change but also devised the counter-moves. More importantly, politics has to take a back stage.