Who Will Win?

Yes, remember, GK readers, you read an extended write-up on this globally vital, and geopolitically significant conundrum. And the D-day, November 5, to respond to it is here. Though over 244 million Americans will be eligible to vote. It’s estimated normally 60% usually cast their franchise.

But some of you may ask why and how is a win or defeat in the US presidential poll important for us in India? While it’s indeed tough to explain here in a small article, it should suffice to say that if one looks around the world, there is not one global issue, be it the security, political, economic or even a nation’s local problem, America is concerned with it directly, indirectly or even remotely. For example, the Ukraine war or Middle East, America’s role can’t be missed. Who the next US president will be would be crucial in cessation of hostilities there. The two presidential candidates are differently inclined to what’s leading to massive human massacre occurring there. But there’s much more to this.

Therefore, a moot question hovering all over world is who of the two parties’ candidates, Indian-origin Democratic Party’s 60-year-old Kamala Harris or the 79-year-old former president, Donald Trump can make a difference? The one who was impeached twice and has over three dozen criminal cases waiting trial? Or a woman who has compassion for the suffering thousands. The one who abhorred the Muslim community and declined them entry in US?

Now that election has begun, it’s learnt that more than 75% Americans have voted already, but it would be hazardous to name the winner. Nearly, a week ago, it seemed to be puzzling even to attempt a cogent, simple retort. But now, with just a few hours to go, innumerable media, political pundits and experienced pollsters have come up with their astute riposte on who could be a possible winner. Here are some trustworthy media survey forecasts:

While Google.com reports that Kamala Harris leads in two surveys ‘there’s a tie in three others as the race tightens.’  The vice-president Kamala Harris ‘has a single-digit lead over Donald Trump,’ according to Morning Consult, a noted commercial survey agency. The ABC television / Ipsos poll puts three-point – 49%-46% lead advantage on Sunday, Nov. 5.

Another poll by the NBC News / Emerson College  shows both the candidates tied up at 49%; a Yahoo News/You Gov. survey also has a similarly tied poll figure, 47%--47%. Kamala Harris leads 49% - 47% in Economist / You Gov survey earlier. Harris is also up 51% - 47% in a Cooperative Election Study conducted by a collective of universities and YouGov that polled some 50,000 people late last month.

In addition, in The New York Time/ Sienna College / SSRS survey Reuters/ Ipsos and CBS TV, Harris leads by just one point. However, Trump was ahead 48% -- 46% in a CNBC survey of registered voters a week ago. Trump also led. 47%-45% in a Wall Street Journal. Kamala Harris has however erased Trump’ lead over Joe Biden since announcing her candidacy on July 21. While Trump’s lead has shrunk somewhat during last month, but he had gain points over Joe, according to another survey.

Be that may, there are seven US states where the critical voting lead enables win. It’s by the Electoral College votes that make all the difference. In all there are 538 total Electoral votes (Generally, in most elections in other countries, victory depends on popular majority in votes: a candidate who secures most votes is declared the winner. Not in the USA. The Electoral College votes are allocated to the 50 states of the country on the basis of a state’s population, and their number of senators (2 each, i.e.,100) and the members of the House of Representatives (438). For example, the US’s California state has a largest population; therefore, commands highest 54 electoral college votes. Smallest states like Delaware, Vermont, DC, have only three electoral votes each. In fact, in the case of Al Gore and Hillary Clinton lost their election because they could not collect from the states the required 270 electoral majority.

Thus the 2024 race for the White House, Kamala Harris continues to be inching closer to winning 270 electoral votes. Ace pollsters, Nate Silver  and Allan Lichtman’s predictions currently foresee a win for Kamala Harris though it may be too early to jump to the conclusion. Let’s wait with fingers crossed.