What’s Next in Syria?

The collapse of decades-old Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria signals a cartwheel moment in West Asia, a region already affected by overlapping crises that has attracted the interest of nearly every powerful country from the United States to Russia, from Iran to Turkey to China.

It just took twelve days for the unexpected total collapse of Assad’s government. Armed rebels literally walked into main cities without much resistance. It has led to both hope and uncertainty.

While jubilant Syrians in exile celebrate the possibility of returning home, many still remain cautious. The previous decades of conflict and war have decimated Syria’s infrastructure, education and health system, leaving millions displaced and scattered again, questioning the feasibility of stability in Syria and a safe return. In Syria, nearly entire cities require reconstruction, and the new leadership and administration will face the enormous task of governing a fractured, war-torn nation.

The current situation in Syria and the shift of power will continue to remain under much scrutiny by the global powers and interventions of the United States and Russia. There will be challenges and opportunities for Syria and its neighbours. The global implications, more so in West Asia, will be equally reflective as the world’s major powers will reassess their strategies in the region.

Challenges

With the fall of Assad and the new administration, Syria faces the task of rebuilding a fractured state. The physical toll of over a decade of civil war is staggering: entire cities lie in ruins, and essential infrastructure like drinking water systems, hospitals, and schools has been obliterated. More than half of Syria’s population is presently displaced with millions living as refugees in neighbouring countries or in immediate camps.

The immediate political question is the nature of Syria’s new leadership. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the radical coalition that led the final push against Assad, must now pivot from extremism or insurgency to governance. Ahmed al-Sharaa the new leader of Syria has even though announced an inclusive government, yet scepticism continues.

The group’s designation as a terrorist organisation by the United States and other countries complicates its quest for international recognition. The question remains, will the radical HTS leadership and cadre take care of equality and impartiality with Syria’s diverse society that comprises Sunni and Shia Muslims, Christians, Kurds, and smaller minority groups? Will they provide a fair government that builds trust and living conditions for the minorities living in the country or those who will be returning after decades of living in exile? Can there be unity amongst the fragmented militant and armed groups? Any failure to balance these dynamics risks reigniting conflict.

Assad’s fall has already brought signs of changes and expectations across West Asia, disrupting long-standing power structures and alliances.

For example, for Iran, the loss of Assad is a severe blow to its regional ambitions. Syria has long served as a conduit for Iranian arms and support to Hezbollah, forming a critical part of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” against Israel and the West. With the collapse of this key player, Iran’s ability to project power into the region diminishes. However, key observers of the situation suggest that Iran is unlikely to retreat quietly. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s rhetoric suggests that Tehran will double down on supporting proxies elsewhere, from Iraq to Yemen, in an effort to maintain its influence despite its reduced resources, growing domestic unrest and economic sanctions by the US and the West.

For Israel, the fall of Assad’s regime may bring a temporary relief as it disrupts the Iranian supply chain to Hezbollah, however, the power vacuum in Syria could invite new dangers. Fragmented rebel factions or extremist groups will continue to remain as new threats. Israel, in addition to immediate focus on Hamas in Gaza will have to keep an extra vigil with its northern border of Syria that continues to be a flashpoint. Israeli airstrikes on Iranian and Hezbollah targets in Syria last week suggest that it may continue more attacks, which means more killings and more security apparatus for its defence.

For Turkey, analysts suggest that the priorities in Syria remain consistent which is curbing Kurdish aspirations for autonomy and managing refugee flows. Turkey’s government has already intensified operations against the few Kurdish militant groups. Turkey’s actions risk aggravating Syria’s humanitarian crisis. Over 100,000 people have been displaced in recent weeks due to renewed clashes. Turkey will likely avoid open confrontation with other powers in West Asia as the post-Assad political landscape continues to be fluid.

The implications of Assad’s fall also extend far beyond West Asia or the Middle East. Great powers with vested interests in Syria are likely to recalibrate their strategies. For Russia, Assad’s ouster represents a setback. Moscow’s intervention in the Syrian civil war in 2015 stabilised Assad’s rule in Syria and secured its own strategic interests, including military bases at Tartus and Hmeimim. These assets have allowed Russia to project power in the Mediterranean and beyond.

With Assad gone, Russia’s foothold in Syria is weakened and at risk. More so Russia’s engagement since last more than two years in Ukraine has restrained its capacity to concentrate and influence in West Asia. Russia is likely to re-strategise its influence and future course of action in West Asia. The United States and the Biden administration’s response to Assad’s fall has been cautious. Washington’s immediate priority is preventing Syria from becoming a breeding ground for extremist groups, as happened in Iraq after 2003. Calls by US leadership for an “inclusive Syrian-led political process” bust scare of a policy vacuum continues.

China’s involvement in Syria has primarily been economic, but indirect support to Russia, too, with an eye toward post-war reconstruction contracts. Beijing will likely continue its non-interventionist approach, advocating for stability to protect its Belt and Road investments in the region.

India has emphasised preserving Syria’s unity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. India also advocates a peaceful and inclusive Syrian-led political process respecting the interests and aspirations of all sections of Syrian society. India is framing its engagement through a humanitarian lens and people-centric approach. New Delhi will continue to have a measured stance of diplomatic balance in West Asia.

The path forward for Syria remains tense with immense testing times. Rebuilding the nation will demand not only billions of dollars but also sustained and coordinated international cooperation that is unlikely as the world is presently grappling with crises at multiple fronts.

Syria’s immediate priorities include restoring infrastructure, reconstructing governance systems, and resettling millions of displaced Syrians.

With millions of displacements in last few decades has brought in the complex web of land disputes back in Syria. Land Mafias have not only grabbed their homes but have profited out of it. This adds another layer of challenge domestically for rehabilitating the displaced willing to return home.

Syria’s humanitarian needs are equally pressing. Unexploded ordnance scattered across the country and the widespread destruction of healthcare facilities pose ongoing threats to safety and survival.

On the political front and a stable future depends on the ability of militant-turned-political factions such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and other stakeholders to form an inclusive and functional government.

Achieving this will require unprecedented compromises, both domestically and from regional and international actors directly involved in the country.

Syria risks further fragmentation, suffering and threatening regional stability without a political map and people-led objectives for peaceful coexistence.

For regional powers, the post-Assad era offers both lessons and opportunities. Several neighbouring countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which have recently moved to normalise relations with Syria are likely to carefully reconsider their strategies to contribute meaningfully to the country’s recovery.

Meanwhile, ongoing conflicts and crises in Yemen, Gaza, and beyond highlight the region’s challenges and need for a holistic approach to West Asia stability.

Syria’s future has high stakes. The country’s success story depends on how the emerging new leadership will navigate the transition and face the expectations of the population who has suffered for decades. For HTS, evolving from a rebel group into a legitimate governing authority in itself is crucial as their cadres will have to rule not by the gun but through their political ability to achieve the stability of the country.

Regional actors will undoubtedly continue to vie for influence, shaping not just Syria’s trajectory but also the broader dynamics of West Asia. While the road ahead is scary and daunting, a concerted global effort offers a glimmer of hope for a nation long caught up in conflict.

Author is National Editor, Greater Kashmir