What led to NC’s defeat in Budgam?
In the electoral history of Budgam assembly constituency right from 1962 to 2024, National Conference-NC has won this seat ten times out of eleven elections. Only once Congress party candidate Ali Mohammad Mir won from Budgam in 1972 assembly elections. As the result of by-elections has been announced the Peoples Democratic Party-PDP candidate Aga Syed Muntazir Mehdi defeated his nearest rival Aga Syed Mehmood with a margin of more than 4400 votes. In last year’s Assembly elections Chief Minister Omar Abdullah had won from Budgam with a thumping majority. He secured more than 36,000 votes and his nearest rival Aga Syed Muntazir could manage to get only 17,525 votes. The voting percentage in last year’s election was also high as compared to recent by-elections wherein only 50 % polling was registered in Budgam Assembly segment.
In Ganderbal Omar Abdullah had secured 32,727 votes in 2024 assembly elections which was around 4000 less than Budgam, but in a significant political move, he vacated the Budgam assembly seat while retaining the Ganderbal constituency. The announcement was made last year by the Pro-tem Speaker Mubarak Gul in the Jammu & Kashmir Assembly when MLAs were taking oath. As Chief Minister Omar Abdullah had successfully secured both seats – Ganderbal and Budgam – in the last year’s assembly elections, his choice to keep Ganderbal underscored its importance to his political legacy, but after one year the said decision has backfired him ? NC lost Budgam because people feel they were neglected and side-lined. This is what many NC supporters in Budgam told me. There are other important factors as well which I have explained below.
Ganderbal Assembly constituency
The Ganderbal assembly constituency has long been regarded as a stronghold for the Abdullah family. Omar Abdullah previously won election from Ganderbal in December 2008 assembly elections during his first tenure as Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir (2009-2014). Omar’s grandfather, Sheikh Mohammad Abdulllah also called Sher e Kashmir and his father Dr Farooq Abdullah have represented Ganderbal in the past. Sheikh Sahib won election from Ganderbal in 1977. Before that he was unable to participate in the election process due to his detention right from 1953 to 1975. After his death, Dr Farooq Abdullah won from Ganderbal in 1983 assembly elections. He became MLA from the same constituency in 1987 and 1996 assembly elections. In 2002 NC could not retain this seat and Omar Abdullah who was National Conference President that time lost the assembly election. Peoples Democratic Party-PDP candidate Qazi Mohammad Afzal defeated Omar Abdullah and he was gifted with a cabinet minister berth by PDP CM Mufti Mohammad Syed after forming Govt with Congress.
Why did NC lose Budgam ?
There are multiple reasons why the National Conference -NC lost the Budgam seat. Aga Ruhullah, the Lok Sabha MP from Srinagar is indeed one of the factors for NC’s loss but there are other factors as well. The people of Budgam assembly constituency have been angry over the decision of Omar Abdullah to surrender Budgam seat after he won last year’s election from Budgam and Ganderbal assembly segments. It is said that Omar Abdullah had promised to retain the seat from where he would get more votes. Budgam people gave him 36000 votes while in Ganderbal he got 32,000 but still he chose Ganderbal? For the last 1 year Budgam remained unrepresented and by-elections were not held. Aga Ruhullah who is MP from Srinagar parliamentary seat does represent Budgam district as well, but minus Budgam and Beerwah assembly segments? These two areas were carved out and clubbed with Baramulla Lok Sabha segment by the delimitation commission a few years back? Ruhullah Mehdi thus could not provide funds under MP LADs to his own people. Engineer Rashid, the Member of Parliament-MP from Baramulla who represents Budgam assembly segment, is in Tihar Jail? In spite of all these odds, CM Omar could have managed to handle this assembly constituency by frequently visiting the Budgam town and its outskirts and holding meetings with DC, SSP and other district officers, but that didn’t happen? Budgam was not too far from the airport.
Omar Abdullah could have visited Humhama, Ompora, Sheikhpora at least on the way to Airport or while coming back from Jammu or Delhi? He didn’t do this. In fact many people in Budgam told me that even during Aga Ruhulla’s tenure as MLA and Minister from Budgam not much development has taken place. But as he has been very vocal for the last 3 to 4 years on Kashmir, article 370, reservation issue etc. Aga Ruhullah has gained public sympathy especially from youth. The anger against NC Govt frustrated many and in this by-election they voted in favour of PDP candidate Aga Syed Muntazir a young educated shia face of the party. I personally don’t see this as a clear mandate for PDP but this was a protest vote against Omar Abdullah?
Aga Muntazir had participated in the last assembly elections as well against Omar Abdullah but he had lost. Muntazir has his own family legacy and people voted for that as well. He is son of Aga Syed Hassan Al Mosavi Al Safvi, the President of Anjuman Sharie Shiyaan which is a respected Shia religious organisation. Aga Hassan has not been active in electoral politics for the last 48 years. He contested only once i.e. in 1977 assembly elections as Janta Party candidate from Budgam , but lost against NC's Ghulam Hassan Geelani with a margin of around 2500 votes. Aga Hassan has been part of Hurriyat Conference as well. I don’t think some other candidate other than Aga Muntazir would have been capable of giving a tough fight to NCs candidate Aga Syed Mehmood who is also a political and religious stalwart of Budgam. He is the younger brother of noted Shia scholar Aga Syed Mohammad Fazlullah who died in 2018. Because of this name Aga Mahmood’s group is also referred to as Mohammadi faction in Budgam. Aga Syed Hadi whose lectures and sermons on Islam and contemporary politics are watched across Kashmir by both Shia and Sunni people on social media happens to be nephew of Aga Mehmood. Mohammadi faction has followers not only in Budgam assembly segment but has a good support base in Srinagar, Pattan and Beerwah areas as well. In the past Aga Mehmood has represented both Pattan and Beerwah assembly constituencies. He won assembly elections in 1987 from Pattan and 1996 assembly elections from Beerwah assembly segment. In NC Govt he was a Minister as well between 1987 to1989.
Strange political development
Aga Ruhullah Mehdi who won the parliamentary election from Srinagar lok sabha seat last year on National Conference ticket has been annoyed with the party for almost 6 months now. He has criticized the party leadership for maintaining silence on Article 370, reservation issue and many other things. This has made him a hero among the youth especially. In the by-elections Aga Ruhullah didn’t campaign for NC and this caused more wedge between him and the party especially CM Omar Abdullah. What I noticed on the ground is that Aga Ruhulla’s supporters were openly campaigning for PDP’s Aga Muntazir with whom he has a very unhealthy and troubled relationship. Aga Muntazir Mehdi happens to be a cousin of Aga Ruhullah Medi. His father Aga Syed Hassan is the real brother of Aga Ruhulla’s father Age Syed Mehdi who was killed in a militant attack more than two decades back. Aga Syed Mustaffa Al Mosavi ( 1918-2022) was father of Late Aga Syed Mehdi and Aga Syed Hassan and that is the reason this group of Shia’s is also known Mustafayee faction. In spite of family frictions, the Mustafayee vote bank has remained intact this time. Otherwise in the past Aga Ruhullah was supported by Aga Mahmood especially in the 2014 assembly elections.
Conclusion
The result in Budgam is quite evident that people have not been happy with the NC led Govt. They could have voted for some other candidate as well like Jibran Dar who got more than 7000 votes as an independent candidate and worked very hard for almost 1 year in the nook and corner of Budgam assembly segment. But the people are very sharp and they know the iron cuts iron and that is why they chose to vote for Aga to defeat another Aga ? Omar Abdullah while commenting on PDPs victory in Budgam said that Aga Ruhullah helped them to win but at the same time predicted that he has committed a political suicide as according to Omar Abdullah , Aga Ruhullah lost his own bastion ? He hinted that the party will decide the future course of action against Ruhullah. I believe he might be expelled from the party as Ruhullah attacked Omar Abdullah for not fulfilling the election promises and remaining silent on Article 370, reservation issue and other things.
