What does Assad's fall mean to the West Asian conflict?

Green has replaced the red in the Syrian national flag, rebels have taken over with minimum or no resistance, and Bashar al-Assad has fled Syria, and his military force is nowhere. How Syria's new face will shape the West Asian peace process and conflicts remains a question. Syria's reconstruction, healing and avoiding re-relapsing into the conflict are instrumental and must be the top priority.

Bashar al Asad resulted from the overwhelmingness of Pan-Arabism and Baathism in the region. Assad succeeded his father, Hafiz al Asad, who was one of the hugest proponents of Arab nationalism and Baathism. Baathism is an offshoot of Pan-Arabism, which is a political ideology that encouraged the enlightenment of the Arabs, regardless of their religion, and the renaissance of their culture. Anti-imperialism and anti-colonialism, Baathism is based on secular politics and the socialist economy.

Syria is a plural society that draws its history from diverse backgrounds, with Islam being recent. Prominent buildings of Damascus still refresh Syria's architectural heritage from the Ottoman period; it is the burial place of famous Muslims, such as members of the household of the Prophet of Islam and the Companions. Its Christian era is visible through its magnificent churches, etc. The modern journey of the country began with the French Mandate over it. The Sykes-Picot agreement between France and Britain gave the Ottoman Syria and Lebanon to France.

The Mandate ended in 1948, but the power remained in the hands of the same ruling class with interference from foreign powers. Even after the independence, the rich-poor divide was widening, and urban-rural cleavage deepened. Pan-Arabism was a breath of fresh air that reclaimed the Arabness of the Arabs across the Arabi-speaking world. The mandate system had pigeonholed Arabness into Syrian, Iraqi, Jordanian, Egyptian, etc. A strong sentiment of solidarity in Arab nationalism is a reason for the similarity of the colour pallets in the national flags of these countries.

Additionally, Pan-Arabism firmly stands for Palestinian liberation and Syria, among other Arab members, felt additional intimacy towards the Palestinian cause as Palestine has remained part of a geographical region called Bilad al-Sham, and for Palestine and Lebanon, Syria felt like a big brother- Pax-Syriana.

Syria's determination to support Arab nationalism made it unify with Egypt as the United Arab Republic. Parallel to the establishment of the modern nation-state of Syria was also the time when Zionists were occupying Palestinian land, which was Arab land, in neighbouring Syria. The determination naturally placed Syria in antagonism with Israel, fuelled by ideological and geographical ideas. Hence, the result was various actual wars and a continued state of war with Israel.

Syrian military came to prominence with Baathism and ended democratic experimentation with various coups. In 1963, the Baathist Coup led by Hafiz al-Assad transformed Syria towards a party state with totalitarian domination. The Baathist regime, however, provided political stability and ruled Syria with an Iron fist. The political stability gave Syria some time for nation-building and state-building.

Bashar al Assad succeeded his father in 2000 in a changed geopolitics of the region; Arab Socialists had lost the Soviet patronage, and the United States had not established but communicated its hegemony in the post-Cold War period, with a magnanimous resurgence of Islamism after the Islamic Revolution of Iran and emergence of Mujahideen in Afghanistan. Now, the world was not divided along the lines of socialism and liberal democracy, but the new binary was terror, as the US had announced the War on Terror. International actors were rallying around Washington to be on the right side of history, and those who were not were sent back to the Stone Age, like Afghanistan and Iraq.

Transferring world order and changing priorities constantly built tension among the populace almost worldwide. People living with inadequate rights in the age of social media caused unrest in West Asia, too. Dissent was in the open, and people were making their rulers accountable. The dictators were falling one after another: Tunisia, Egypt, Libya. The Western media called the transnational uprising the Arab Spring.

On the domestic level. The anxiety built up as a result of economic injustice, the absence of basic amenities, the ideological and moral bankruptcy of the regimes, political suppression and widespread corruption. Syrian people, too, occupied public spaces in dissent after protests emerged in the southern city of Dera. The demonstrations soon converted into a horrific civil war between the government and the rebel forces, competing to take control of cities and towns.

The Syrian civil war attracted foreign powers, as the country has a strategic place in the region and changing geopolitics in Syria can impact the security of several regimes. Various actors started backing and arming the rebel groups, and the US was seen on the same page with Al-Qaida. Similarly, the Assad regime sought support and survived several years of instability.

The picture of a new Syria needs to be more apparent; the takeover has come with the puzzle that the opposition is not homogenous and divided along ideological lines.