What 2025 holds for J&K?

What to make of Jammu and Kashmir at the end of 2024? Perhaps there are some easy answers, and we relish  the political turning points during the year when the voters across Jammu and Kashmir, especially in the Valley, departing from their traditional apathy toward the polling booths, showed their tremendous faith in the power of ballot; the pressing  of buttons on the electronic machines. It broadcast message across the world that the people in Kashmir knew how to shape their destiny. This  will go down in the history of J&K as the most crucial year  which inspired hope but more than that unprecedented challenge  for the UT government to survive and steady course of its narratives against heavy odds placed before it.

The  elections  delivered a verdict which many had not expected. National Conference jumped in celebration as it saw the vote counting conferring a majority to it,  and inflicting shock to the major opponent BJP that lost its second attempt to win even a single seat in the Valley; that could not be overcome by the rapturous celebrations  in winning a huge majority in the Hindu dominated region of Jammu.  But there was something in the mandate that was deliberately ignored for their ideological differences and commitment to their constituents; that BJP and National Conference should join hands to fulfil the dream of the voters for smooth functioning of the government so that delivery system operates  as per its promised schedule.

That would have been the ideal situation. It would not have been a question of betrayal of the respective mandates  but a pragmatic approach both in the interest of all the communities, regions and sub regions of the erstwhile state, now a Union territory. Yes, there was a contest over the narratives on Article 370  and its abrogation. These differences were huge  and had touched the psyche of Kashmiris and the rest of the nation in two different, rather mutually hostile interpretations. An impression has been imprinted on the majority community across the nation that this particular constitutional provision has played a sinister role in keeping J&K apart from the rest of the country.

In Kashmir, the majority community of the Valley and certain sections in Jammu region believe otherwise; their identity has been trampled upon and living without the constitutional guarantees was like breathing in an artificially created purifier in their clean, fresh and one of the best air of their land. Practically, they wanted their land and right to jobs protected, as much of the Article 370 already stood hollowed out. They also believed that  Article 370  offered an additional cover to Article 35A, their main concern. The abrogation has brought about a number of positive changes in optics and atmospherics which even locals know would not have been possible in their status of the gone by era. The call of the day is to be pragmatically realistic.

Sometimes all ideologies should emerge above the political commitments to foster national interest. That fits into the BJP’s basic principle, “ nation first, party next and self last.” No political ideology is superior to the national interest. And  this idea can be beautified and glorified  only when the regional and national parties find ways to work together in the true spirit of upholding the people’s trust.

There was a hope that the Centre would  honour its promise of restoring statehood to J&K. Four essential parameters have been fulfilled: (a) The Centre got special delimitation exercise done in this territory (b) revision of special electoral rolls (c) Election  Commission of India conducted the most successful elections  (d) an elected government has taken over the reins of the state of affairs. The restoration of the state should have been the natural sequel. But it was not to be. The Omar Abdullah government is grappling with different definitions of its powers in  absence of the statehood.

The whole thing rests on the wishes of the Centre, and as the situation is today, BJP-run center is hesitant in doing so. In a way, the Centre has spelled out the deadline in prospective terms – the day J&K will be fully terror-free  the UT will qualify for the statehood. Since law and order and security apparatus are with the Centre and its representative Lieutenant Governor exercises these powders, so it has  to reach that goal post. And until the goalpost is reached, the Centre will continue to wait, and watch the situation, and once it achieves the goal only then it may consider restoring the statehood. That is what the definition of  appropriate  time is, one may accept it or not.

This wait and watch mode is essential too, as the Centre has to weigh all the risks and awards. The semblance of normalcy in J&K is Delhi’s baby, the responsibility of nurturing and bringing it up has been given to the Government in J&K without giving a full control of all affairs. Delhi wants this baby of peace to grow on its terms. Ideally, it should be helping the government to make it happen, but the fact remains that it hasn’t changed its view  about NC.

The options before the Centre are obvious: it will keep the elected government under watch, monitor each and everything that it does. It will pay equal or may be little more attention to what the opposition parties, particularly BJP says about the J&K government and its performance. That is the way Centre works. With 29 MLAs and highest percentage of votes in the polls, the BJP has taken upon itself the responsibility – it  has started targeting 60-odd day old government for the resolution it passed in the Assembly calling for the restoration of the special status with constitutional guarantees  calling it  anti-national  which paves way for the resurrection of the secessionist forces.

This resolution in its contours and content is rich in symbolism and poor in its worth on the ground. In fact, it has been interpreted as a roadblock in restoration of the statehood. The BJP’s narrators have integrated the resolution on  statehood, and the status in the national-security risk category. The party is also demanding answers from the government on public delivery system  without allowing it a honeymoon period. It is a selective  political amnesia.

The National Conference government in J&K is entering 2025 with this narration by its political opponent BJP. The 2025 will decide what all the government can deliver and how. It cannot walk without the help of the Centre. The BJP-run Centre will watch its interests. So that makes it mandatory that the whole thing should be fine-tuned in a way that Centre feels obligated to do what all it is expected to  do  in J&K. If the credibility of the NC government, in fact that of the party as a whole, is at stake, Centre  too will have to live up to its reputation of treating J&K the way it deserves after what it has given to the nation – a narrative of its integration with the idea of India. National Conference would do a great service to itself and the people of J&K as a whole to champion the cause of  all voters reinforcing Kashmir’s place in the core of the Indian nationhood. The message has to be resounding and Himalayas will echo it across to  silence all the skeptics.