War Machines & Weapons on the Rise

In 2023, the global arms trade has reached an unprecedented level. Incomes and profits from the sale of weapons and military services have surged to US $632 billion, or nearly Rs 22 Lakh crore, an increase of 4.2% from the previous year, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

Today in this modern world, we have several international treaties that are supposed to reduce the effect of arms and lethal weapons, still, the world is witnessing an unstoppable arms race amid increasing geopolitical tensions, regional conflicts, and unchecked militarisation of weapons. This unwanted growth in weapons is a direct threat to future of the humanity, as even the smallest arms can spread fear, chaos, and destruction.

On the other hand, the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomous weapons systems equally is adding a dangerous new dimension to the global arms race. These new technologies can operate with minimal or no human intervention. Self-directed drones, for example, can select and engage targets without direct human oversight. it increases the risk of miscalculation or unintended escalation in conflict zones. Additionally, AI-driven cyber weapons have the potential to disrupt critical infrastructure, further destabilising regions already inundated by war and conflict. There is hardly any strong international regulation to yet control autonomous or AI-driven weapons as the majority of them are in the development stage. These advancements without any global check are challenging to existing treaties and make conflicts more unpredictable and shocking.

A World Overflowing with Weapons

From the wars in Ukraine and Gaza to escalating tensions in West and East Asia, and some parts of the African continent, conflict is driving demand for arms. The global arms industry has become a juggernaut, thriving on the instability of international politics and conflict.

According to SIPRI, nearly three-quarters of the top 100 arms companies increased their revenues in 2023. This surge is not limited to traditional powers like the United States and Europe, South Korea, Japan, and Middle Eastern nations have also emerged as weighty players. While some argue this is a response to legitimate security concerns, the proliferation of arms often aggravates the very conflicts it means to address. Smaller arms producers, particularly those in Russia and the Middle East, are ramping up production to record levels to meet the growing demands.

In one of the latest examples, the United States supplied controversial weapons such as landmines to Ukraine amid its war with Russia a month ago. Reports also suggest that cluster munitions were also supplied. This decision drew widespread criticism due to the indiscriminate harm these weapons can cause. The use of landmines has been condemned globally, yet the U.S. justified their supply to Ukraine as a measure to bolster defence capabilities and stop the advancing Russian soldiers in Ukraine’s territory. Similarly, Cluster Munitions are also banned under the Convention on Cluster Munitions by over 120 plus countries. They have a history of causing civilian casualties long after conflicts end. Several political pundits say this sets a dangerous precedent and undermines international norms against such weapons forcing many countries to rethink the international treaties.

International treaties as we all know are meant to impose order on the misuse of weapons and regulate the chaos of the arms trade. The Arms Trade Treaty (ATT), ratified by nearly 120 plus states, aims to regulate the sale of conventional weapons to reduce human suffering. Similarly, the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) attempts to prevent the spread of nuclear arms and promote disarmament. In addition, some other international treaties like the Ottawa Treaty banning landmines and the Chemical Weapons Convention, are also attempting to ban some of the indiscriminate categories of weaponry. Yet these treaties are violated many times. Some of the leading global powers like the United States, Russia, and China, have refused to ratify key international treaties. The Ottawa Treaty of banning landmines for example has not been signed by countries like the U.S., Russia, India, and Pakistan. These countries continue to manufacture and stockpile landmines.

The NPT, for example, has been unable to halt the modernisation of nuclear arsenals by existing nuclear powers, which collectively possess over 13,000 warheads. Countries like India, Pakistan, and Israel remain outside the treaty’s framework. Meanwhile, the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), which aims to prohibit all nuclear explosions, has yet to come into force due to the refusal of key nations to ratify it.

Profiting out of Conflicts

Arms production is big business, deeply entrenched in the economies of many nations. In the United States, arms revenues reached $317 billion in 2023, accounting for half of the global sales. American firms like Lockheed Martin and RTX dominate the industry, driven by domestic and international demand.

Europe remains a critical player. Companies like Germany’s Rheinmetall have increased production of ammunition and tanks, responding to the war in Ukraine and other regional conflicts. However, Europe’s reliance on complex, long-term contracts has slowed its ability to adapt to immediate shifts in demand.

Asia and the Middle East are also emerging as key arms markets as said by SIPRI. South Korean and Japanese companies have recorded substantial revenue growth, fuelled by military build-ups and regional tensions as reported by the research of SIPRI. In West Asia, Israel and Turkey have seen unprecedented demand for their weaponry, particularly in response to the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine. Presently, the arms race is not confined to traditional weaponry. It has gone beyond it. Drones, cyber weapons, and autonomous systems are rapidly reshaping the battlefield and modern weapons with most armies. Nations are investing heavily in these new technologies, often bypassing traditional regulatory frameworks that worry those who are fighting to regulate these weapons.

Another current example is Turkey’s Baykar. The company has become a global leader in armed drones, which have been extensively used in Ukraine and other conflicts. These drones are known for their precision and also raise ethical and legal questions about accountability in warfare. The development of fully autonomous weapons capable of selecting and engaging targets without human intervention is even more controversial, with many calling for a pre-emptive ban.

Space militarization is another frontier. The Outer Space Treaty of 1967 prohibits placing weapons of mass destruction in space, but it does not address conventional or emerging weapons. As tensions between the U.S., China, and Russia spill into space, the lack of comprehensive regulation could have catastrophic consequences. The human cost of these deadly weapons cannot be ignored. We all have seen in the last two years how from the trenches of Ukraine to the streets of Gaza, the proliferation of weapons has done more collateral damage in cities where civilians have been living. They have suffered the most. Civilian casualties, destruction of their houses, hospitals, schools massive displacements are heart-rending shocking consequences of a world awash in arms.

In Yemen, for example, the Saudi-led coalition has used U.S.-supplied weapons, including cluster munitions, killing hundreds of civilians. In Syria, the use of chemical weapons has been documented despite the Chemical Weapons Convention’s prohibitions.

Non-State Actors

Non-state groups, from militias to terrorist organisations, often gain access to weapons through black markets, looted stockpiles, or state sponsorship. The black and dark market of illegal sales of weapons is equally flourishing. The proliferation of small arms and light weapons has fuelled conflicts in regions like Africa and the West and East Asia, where weak governance and porous borders exacerbate the problem. In Somalia, arms intended for government forces have ended up in the hands of al-Shabaab militants. Similarly, weapons supplied to Syrian rebels have often found their way to extremist groups, complicating efforts to resolve the conflict. In South Asia, we have seen the consequences in Afghanistan and now in Pakistan.

The unchecked growth of the arms industry needs to be arrested. An urgent need for stronger international cooperation and regulation is the need of the hour. Existing treaties must be reinforced and made accountable with forceful enforcement mechanisms to check the menace of these weapons including control of emerging new technologies. Diplomacy and dialogue are the first steps to control the growing race of arms manufacturing.

Equally, public awareness is necessary. Civil society organisations, from grassroots activists to global NGOs and international organisations have been instrumental in pushing for bans on landmines, cluster munitions, and other inhumane weapons but still, it needs more effort. We have seen how some of the weapons like laser guns that would blind soldiers were banned before their use or all those chemicals that once were used in World War I and II were banned. One example is the International Campaign to Ban Landmines (ICBL), which played a pivotal role in the adoption of the Ottawa Treaty by mobilising public opinion.

The world stands at a crossroads without much action to stop the arms race. In return, the modernisation of lethal weapons and war machines continues to threaten humanity leading to cycles of violence and suffering. By confronting the forces that drive the arms trade and committing ourselves to a vision of shared security and peace, the global community can chart a different course.

A cooperative campaign and action can do wonders to stop the indiscriminate proliferation of weapons for economic growth. As we all many times keep discussing the arms race is just an outcome or a symptom of deeper geopolitical and economic imbalances.

Addressing these root causes may help in curbing inequality, resource competition, and ideological divisions. It requires a strategic effort by the business tycoons, tech giants and individuals rather than the governments to support the implementation of the rules of war. It is time we all invest in conflict prevention and peacebuilding that can save nature, and human life and much-needed attention to climate change and the future of our planet. The time to act is now, before the balance tips toward destruction. The arms race is not just a battle for dominance but a test of humanity’s capacity to choose peace over profit.

Author is National Editor, Greater Kashmir