Wait begins for announcement of election schedule

Political parties are now  keenly waiting for the Election Commission of India (ECI) to announce the assembly election schedule for Jammu and Kashmir. The parties would then formally annouce their candidates and jump into the electoral fray with full strength and enthusiasm.

Assembly elections are being held this time in a completly changed political and geographical atmosphere in Jammu and Kashmir.  In 2014 when last assembly polls were held here, J&K was a full fledged state with Ladakh being its part.

The Article 370 was intact and the state was enjoying a special status and having also its own constitution and flag. After the August 5, 2019 decisions by central government,  J&K is a union territory now and Ladakh also a separate union territory. The Article 370, J&K constitution and J&K state flag are also gone.

This scenario was never imagined by the major regional political parties and their supporters,  who have been expressing their displeasure with whatever happened. If anything has not changed in J&K that is the faith of political parties and their supporters in the country’s democracy and tradition of holding free and fair elections.

This was evident also recently during the record breaking parliamentary polls in J&K, which not only witnessed huge poll percentage but results by and large on expected lines as well.

After the parliamentary elections, now the assembly polls are being held shortly. Despite feeling that J&K is not the same now politically  what  it was in 2014 assembly polls,  the parties want to contest with full might and enthusiasm.

They are doing so not only for getting the political power but also for their own survival and existence. This can become evident once the poll schedule is announced and the parties join the electoral arena in a big way.

Not only the traditional parties, who by and large were convinced by Lok Sabha poll results,  but even some other parties including the new ones, whose performance was dismal, too are gearing up for assembly elections and trying to overcome the setbacks they had received a few months back.

National Conference (NC) President Dr Farooq Abdullah has announced that his party will field candidates in all the 90 assembly constituencies in J&K. He ruled out any electoral alliance with any other party.  Dr Farooq Abdullah made these announcements during his visit to Chenab Valley. Prior to starting his election related programme, he attended a marriage function there in which he sang and danced. Its video went viral on social media.

Some criticised him and some hailed him. Reacting to the  criticism, the NC President said, “ I am happy that I can sing and dance at this age also. Whatever I do, I do it openly. I am not like those who secretly do things, which they feel will be disliked by people”. Dr Farooq Abdullah stated that he will himself contest the assembly polls but did not reveal anything about his assembly constituency.

He defended his party Vice President Omar Abdullah’s decision not to fight assembly elections as long as J&K is a union territory. A similar decision has been taken by the PDP President Mehbooba Mufti. Both the former chief ministers accused the central government of trying to make J&K assembly like a municipality since the decisions on August 5, 2019.

They also  criticised the recent amendments in the J&K Reorganisation Act 2019 in which the powers of the chief minister were reduced and that of the Lieutenant Governor strengthened. However, Omar and Mehbooba stated that they would lead the assembly election campaigns of their respective parties. Some political analysts believe that too much criticism  by Omar and Mehbooba of the centre’s decisions regarding assembly and recent amendments can affect the enthusiasm and morale of their party cadres in the elections. Both the leaders will have to walk a tight rope on the issue.

They are saying that they will not contest as it is against their stature since the powers of elected government and chief minister have been weakened. But  on the other side  they tell their other senior leaders and cadres to take part in elections with enthusiasm and full might. The critics of their statements remind them as how much powerful they were during their terms as chief ministers in past and that they were always on the mercy of their coalition partners.

According to the critics,  after the 1996 assembly polls when NC almost secured one third majority,  the state government headed by Dr Farooq Abdullah was actually run by two powerful bureaucrats.

Whether or not Dr Farooq Abdullah contests the coming assembly polls but his statement that he would fight can help in raising the morale of his party men at this time and build a tempo for NC’s  campaign in a big way. Otherwise it would have been a fight by the premier political party without a leader leading from the front in the electoral fray.

BJP has also announced to contest all the 90 assembly constituencies. The party has nominated the constituencies’ incharges also. Apni Party and People’s Conference  too have  announced to fight separately and not to form any alliance in this election.

NC leadership views that it is very much strong on the ground which was reflected by the Lok Sabha poll results when  the party won two seats in Kashmir and stood second on the third. Its only concern is the reports that parties with separatist background too may fight the assembly elections.

The leadership apprehends that if that happens NC can meet the same fate in several assembly constituencies as in Baramulla Lok Sabha constituency, where Omar Abdullah was defeated by Er Rashid. NC circles believe that fighting PDP, which is in the process of reconsolidation, is not that tough.

The NC script to counter PDP is ready and has already been used in parliamentary polls  as well. The script is that “PDP brought BJP into Jammu and Kashmir  by forming a coalition government with it after 2014 assembly elections.” Some political circles say that Omar is an expert in selling this script. According to them he successfully showed his skills in recent  parliamentary polls in south Kashmir.

But, in the process Omar was caught unawares about what was happening on the ground in his north Kashmir Baramulla constituency.  PDP in parliamentary polls got a solace by coming second on two seats. That also reflected that no new party has been able to become an alternative to PDP yet despite most senior leaders having left after 2019. The party right now is in the process of getting back some of its lost faces.

Author is senior editor, Greater Kashmir