Wait and watch!

Sheikh Abdul Rashid, a well-known person from Langate, in Kupwara district of North Kashmir, has been a person frequently shrouded with controversies. He is popularly known as Engineer Rashid. A post graduate diploma holder in Civil Engineering in 1990, who worked in the erstwhile state government of J&K for over a decade in the Projects Construction Corporation. Earlier he was also an important member of the Muslim United Front (MUF) which fought in an election in 1987 on Islamist agenda.

This allegedly rigged election was the turning point in the beginning of insurgency of J&K in 1990’s.  Unlike several other members of the erstwhile MUF, like Yasin Malik and M Yusuf Shah, Engineer Rashid joined politics and won two successive assembly elections in 2008 and 2014 from Langate constituency. He then formed the Jammu and Kashmir Awami Ittehad Party (AIP). After the abrogation of Articles 370 and 35A, he was imprisoned under the Unlawful Activities Prevention Act (UAPA) and sent to the Tihar Jail, where he is languishing since then.

In the recently concluded Lok Sabha elections Engineer Rashid contested from the jail for the Baramulla seat and sprung a surprise by defeating the former CM of J&K Omar Abdullah convincingly with clear majority in the 18 of the 21 assembly segments. The campaigning which was led by his two sons Abrar Rashid and Asrar Rashid for their father, got tremendous support from the residents of these areas. The BJP leadership quietly watched this election and did not make any comment though they repeatedly expressed their support to end the dynastic rule of the Abdullahs in the UT. His winning the election, however, has not made any difference regarding his imprisonment status, though he was granted bail by the NIA, to take oath.

The forthcoming assembly election and the role of the AIP party of Engineer Rashid is being closely monitored. The parties chosen candidates from the 21 constituencies out of which 18 had given victory to Engineer Rashid could make a difference on the overall outcome. Though BJP which had not contested in the Lok Sabha seats in the valley have decided to put up their candidates in these elections symbolically. They have already curtailed the powers of any elected government in the erstwhile state through a recent gazette notification that expanded the powers of the Union territory’s lieutenant governor – a Union government appointee.

The party has been trying hard to have a say in ruling the erstwhile state through the assembly also. They even tried to hold hands with PDP led by Ms Mehbooba Mufti in 2015. That government, however, did not last. With their Jammu area candidate selections getting into internal disputes, it is important for them to impede the National Conference-Indian National Congress victory. They have already tried their influence by allegedly supporting some local parties. Such parties, however, got a very poor share of votes.

Sarjan Barakati, another imprisoned religious leader, currently in Tihar jail, with charges under UAPA is not getting the same treatment as members of the AIP. The National Election Commission found flaws with his nomination papers from his constituency in Shopian district and squeezed him out of the race. This has infuriated his supporters and the famiy.

Seeing the wind blowing in the direction of AIP and the results of the recent Lok Sabha elections a new development is taking place in the valley’s politics. AIP is being joined by a number of political activists including disgruntled workers from NC and PDP, giving a signal that the party is becoming stronger. The latest of these additions is Sheikh Ashiq, former President of the Kashmir Chambers of Commerce and Industries (KCCI). This certainly is going to give more teeth to the AIP.  With PDP no longer a strong force, the NC alliance is seemingly forging ahead in the UT, but they are very likely to still fall short of getting the numbers to form a government. Whom can they look for in that situation?

In that scenario Engineer Rashid and his party, if it performs a repeat of the verdict of the Lok Sabha polls, will assume a pivotal role. Depending upon the post poll arithmetic, it could be sought after by both the opposing groups from Kashmir as well as Jammu region respectively for making up the additional numbers. In short, we may be seeing some interesting political developments post the announcement of results on 8^th October. Wait and watch!

Prof Upendra Kaul, an accomplished cardiologist, is founder Director Gauri Kaul Foundation