Unspoken Demographic Shift

For decades, Kashmir has been viewed as a region where the family remains central to cultural identity, social cohesion, and economic stability. However, data emerging from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) — in which I had the opportunity to contribute as a Research Officer, directly involved in field data Monitoring, verification, and household quality evaluation — has painted a surprisingly different picture. It is a picture that demands urgent attention from policymakers, community leaders, healthcare professionals, and society at large.

As someone who has worked across both urban and rural districts of Kashmir, I expected rural fertility to be significantly higher than urban fertility — especially in remote mountainous belts with traditional values. Yet, I was struck by how little difference remains. According to NFHS-5, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) stands at 1.2 in urban areas and 1.5 in rural areas, a sharp decline from NFHS-4’s figures of 1.4 and 2.0 respectively. More alarmingly, Kashmir’s overall fertility rate has dropped to just 1.4 — well below the replacement level of 2.1.

This silent demographic shift is not merely a statistical trend — it is a profound transformation in our society’s mindset about marriage, family, and the future.

What’s causing the Decline?

There are several causes of concern; however, the most significant ones that I identified during my survey are outlined below.

Delayed Marriages and the Pursuit of Stability

Recent global studies conducted by eminent scientists, experts, and researchers reveal that one of the most significant factors contributing to declining fertility rates is the increasing delay in marriage. This global pattern is also evident in Kashmir, where a growing number of young individuals are postponing marriage, often until their late 30s or even 40s, due to changing social, economic, and personal priorities. For instance, Kashmiri society now places strong emphasis on securing government employment, attaining higher education, and achieving financial stability before marriage. These expectations, deeply rooted across all genders, have significantly influenced social behavior and contributed to the growing trend of delayed marriages in the region. While pursuing stability is commendable, we must remember the Prophetic guidance:“O young people! Whoever among you is able to marry, should marry...”— (Sahih al-Bukhari, 5066)

Marriage is not just a personal milestone but a spiritual foundation and a safeguard for society. Unfortunately, many remain unaware that female fertility declines sharply after the age of 30, reducing chances of conception and increasing the risk of complications.

Matchmaking and the Perfection Trap

My field experience during NFHS also revealed a disturbing social pattern — the “checklist culture” in matchmaking. Families often delay marriages while looking for the “ideal” partner: financially secure, highly educated, well-settled, and good-looking. These inflated expectations are especially damaging for women, who end up waiting longer or remaining unmarried.

This pursuit of perfection contradicts Islamic values. The Qur’an reminds us:

“The most noble of you in the sight of Allah is the most righteous among you.”— (Qur’an 49:13) Unfortunately, cultural pride and social superiority — based on caste, class, or family background — often override qualities like piety and character.

Fear of Childbirth and Medicalization

NFHS data revealed a sharp rise in cesarean deliveries across public and private sectors, many lacking medical necessity. Elective C-sections are increasingly chosen due to fear of labor pain, societal expectations, or hospital convenience, reflecting a concerning shift in maternal healthcare practices. We must learn that Islam encourages embracing childbirth as a noble form of struggle:

“Paradise lies at the feet of your mother.”— (Sunan an-Nasa’i, 3104)

Medical advances are important, but unnecessary interventions undermine maternal health and reflect a societal discomfort with natural processes.

Stigma around Large Families

There was a time when having many children was seen as a sign of prosperity and divine blessing. Today, families with more than two children often face subtle ridicule or judgment. This is deeply concerning, as it reflects a shift away from basic teachings.The Prophet ﷺ said:“Marry the loving and fertile, for I will boast of your great numbers before the nations.”— (Sunan Abu Dawood, 2050)

Children are a source of Rizq (sustenance), not a burden. But modern consumerist ideals have caused many to associate more children with poverty and backwardness.

Cultural Westernization and Digital Influence

Although the impact of global social media has introduced ideals of freedom, minimalism, and individualism among today’s youth, especially young women. While these values can empower and inspire independence, the uncritical imitation of Western lifestyles has altered traditional perceptions of marriage, motherhood, and family to a great extent. The growing preference for child-free living, luxury experiences, and career-first choices—though personally valid—can collectively contribute to demographic decline if adopted widely without balance or cultural adaptation in society like Kashmir.

This Is More Than a Demographic Issue: This crisis extends far beyond declining birth rates. It prompts serious questions: Who will care for Kashmir’s aging population? How will the economy sustain itself with a shrinking workforce? What becomes of our cultural and religious traditions if fewer families uphold them? In a conflict-sensitive region like Kashmir, population decline threatens resilience, economic independence, and social unity.

Islam advocates moderation, not extremes. While responsible family planning based on health and financial means is permissible, avoiding marriage or parenthood out of fear or material concerns is discouraged, as it contradicts the faith’s emphasis on balance, trust, and community continuity.“Do not kill your children for fear of poverty. We provide for them and for you...”— (Qur’an 17:31). So let us not abandon our Prophetic tradition of building strong families, rooted in faith, responsibility, and love.

What Needs to Be Done?

First and foremost is to educate families about the biological and social consequences of delaying marriage and childbirth. Implement strict regulations on C-sections to ensure ethical, informed maternal care in hospitals. Promote Islamic values in matchmaking, prioritizing piety and character over wealth or looks. Address taboos surrounding large families and encourage healthy childbearing. Foster community dialogues among scholars, medical professionals, women leaders, and educators to rebuild a collective, balanced vision for family life and societal well-being in Kashmir.

Tailpiece:

The declining fertility rate in Kashmir is more than a demographic statistic; it mirrors our changing priorities, values, and collective identity. If left unaddressed at this stage, this trend could lead to a future marked by fewer families, fewer children, and a fragile social fabric. It is the time for honest reflection and purposeful action from all of us. We must restore balance between modern aspirations and timeless wisdom, between personal freedom and social responsibility, and between individual choice and the continuity of our community’s legacy.To quote “When a person dies, their deeds come to an end except for three: a continuous charity, knowledge that benefits, or a righteous child who prays for them.”— (Sahih Muslim, 1631)

Kashmir’s strength has always been its people. Let us protect that strength before it fades silently.

Dr Peer Muzamil Zahoor is a Consultant with a specialization in Public Health. He served as a Research Officer Health, NFHS under the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India