Unexpected mandate for NC in Kashmir   

When the J&K assembly election results were announced on October 8^th it was an unexpected mandate for the National Conference-NC. This author has been analysing the elections very closely & I never ever imagined that the NC would get 42 seats?  I was presuming they would get 30 to 32 seats, Congress 10 to 12 seats, PDP 4 to 6 seats, plus 3 to 4 seats might go to  Independents. About BJP I was predicting that they would get between 20 to 25 seats? One thing I was sure of was that the National Conference would form a Government with Congress but with the support of PDP. Nobody had imagined NC would win so many seats and Congress would be wiped out from Jammu plains?  Had NC not done pre poll alliance with Congress, they would have won few more seats like Central Shalteng (erstwhile Batamaloo) where Irfan Shah a senior NC leader was asked to pave a way for Tariq Karra JKPCC Chief. Similarly in Kreeri Wagoora (erstwhile Sangrama) NC paved way for Irfan Hafiz Lone of Congress and from Dooru seat also NC didn’t field its candidate.

Huge victory in Sopore  

Even the NC candidates who won with a huge margin especially in Sopore, Uri, Zadibal, Poonch Haveli would not have imagined that they would get so many votes? I had predicted that the NC candidate from Chadoora Ali Mohammad Dar  would win with a margin of 15000 to 20,000 votes and this would be the highest margin in the valley. My prediction about Chadoora was correct as Dar won with a margin of more than 17000 votes, but I would never ever think that many candidates of NC would win elections with a much higher margin.

I was also sure about Sakina Yatoo’s massive winning margin from Damhal Hanjipora, but I would hardly imagine that a not much known  face of NC like Irshad Rasool Kar would win the elections with a margin of almost 27000 votes from Sopore? Although Irshad Kar actually comes from a noted Congress family, this man was not much known as a politician. Sopore always boycotted elections but this time the voting percentage was better.

Uri, Sumbal, Zadibal

Dr Sajad Shafi of NC would also hardly imagine that he would get almost 40,000 votes (54 % ) from Uri against his rival candidate Taj Mohiuddin who had support of APNI Party President Altaf Bukhari as well. If we talk about Sumbal Sonawari assembly constituency the delimitation commission chiselled this assembly segment  in such a way that NC's Hilal Akbar Lone’s own village Naidkhai and several adjoining villages were clubbed with Bandipora assembly segment, but still Hilal managed to win the elections with a huge margin of 13,744 votes.

Tanvir Sadiq a close confidant of Omar Abdullah was also not sure he would defeat a veteran Shia leader Abid Hussain Ansari with a margin of more than 16000 votes from Zadibal Srinagar.  The polling percentage in Zadibal  was only 24% in  2014. It was expected to cross  45 to 50 % this time, but that didn’t happen. The voting percentage was only 30 % and Tanvir Sadiq still managed to get 22,189 votes and Abid Hussain Ansari got only 6016 votes. The winning margin was 16,173 votes which is the highest in Srinagar district

Jammu, Kashmir divide

The massive vote from Kashmir valley in favour of NC is not a mandate for the party or its candidates but this is a mandate against BJP and its policies.  People were frustrated in the last 5 years and wanted to vent their anger. They chose ballots and voted smartly in favour of a single party. On the other hand the districts of Udhampur, Jammu, Kathua and Samba with majority Hindu population have given a clear cut mandate to BJP with 29 seats in their kitty. I feel this divide on religious lines would be disastrous for Jammu & Kashmir in the long run. Although Kashmiris gave good votes to Sikh candidates in Tral and Baramulla which didn't get noticed at all. It is imperative to ensure Kashmir, Jammu wedge doesn't further bifurcate state on communal lines in the years to come.

Conclusion

As independent candidates like Pyare Lal Sharma from Inderwal Kishtwar district  and Dr Rameshwar Singh from Banni Kathua district plan to join the National Conference, they are now being labelled as traitors by BJP supporters. In one tweet they are referred to as Jaichand. This is the time Omar Abdullah acted like a true leader. Although he won’t be a strong Chief Minister as J&K continues to be a UT and may be he will have to protest on roads as well. He has a challenging task to get statehood restored and a more challenging task would be to carry people of Jammu along. I would suggest the CM office be stationed at Jammu in winters even though there is no official Darbar Move. Along with Kashmir valley, the  CM & his Cabinet Ministers must keep visiting Jammu and look into the grievances of the people at their doorsteps. Dialogue between Kashmir and Jammu must be held at regular intervals involving Civil Society.  Omar Abdullah has to exhibit true leadership which isn’t about a title or a designation but it is all about impact & influence.

Dr Raja Muzaffar Bhat is an Acumen Fellow. He is Chairman / Founder J&K RTI Movement