Ukrainian Advance into Russian territory

In February 2022 Russia invaded Ukraine and in almost two and a half years since the war began, all land action has been on Ukrainian territory. Hence, it came both as a surprise and an embarrassment to Russian President Vladimir Putin when on August 6 around ten thousand Ukrainian forces moved into Russian territory across around a forty Km front in the thinly defended Kursk region. Since the beginning of this operation Ukraine has been able to gain control of around a thousand square Km of Russian territory.

Russia has been forced to evacuate about a hundred thousand persons living in the area to safety as Ukrainian forces have gained control of, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, seventy-four settlements. Russia is now moving its forces into the region to stop the Ukrainian advance.

Zelensky has justified the land offensive of his army into Russian territory to drive home the lesson to the Russian leadership that its people will also have to pay a price if the war continues. Till now Ukrainian action against Russian territory has remained confined to drone and missile attacks. That has not caused any real pain to the Russian population as compared to the Ukrainian people who continue to greatly suffer because of Russia’s brutal land invasion as well as its enormous use of aerial attacks on military as well as civilian targets.

The Ukrainian army has claimed that its operation was undertaken because the Kursk region was being used as a launch pad for missile attacks against its country. Finally, Zelensky has also voiced the hope that Kursk developments may make Putin see the need for negotiations.

On his part, Putin is reported to have remarked that Zelensky wishes to improve his negotiating position as and when these take place. That said, it is unclear as yet if the Ukraine army wishes to retain the Russian territory under its control and, if it wishes to do so, it has the necessary resources. Some military observers believe that the Ukrainian action was undertaken to break the momentum of Russia’s slow but sure advance in the Donetsk region.

Russia has the resources to move forces from other regions of the country into Kursk and not permanently thin out its military presence in eastern and southern Ukraine. The Ukrainian action is therefore unlikely to change the dynamics of the war which is on-going in its territory.

Several questions arise because of the Ukrainian military action in Kursk.

While it will give some comfort to some Ukrainians that some Russians—even if they are few compared to the number of Ukrainians---are now feeling the pain of war the military action is not really significant in military terms. This is because Russia has far more Ukrainian territory under its control and its military machine is far stronger than Ukraine’s. Therefore, as Putin has correctly noted, the action’s aim is that whenever Russian-Ukrainian negotiations begin Zelensky should have a chip, however small, as a counter.

Russia has not only control over Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and parts of Zaporizhzhia but has formally amalgamated them into the Russian Federation. Ukraine supported by the overwhelming majority of countries in the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) has rejected the Russian step but Russia has not rescinded its decision. In order to remain consistent Zelensky has made known that Ukraine has no intention of permanently holding on to the Russian territory it has captured in Kursk.

It would be logical for Putin to remove the Kursk card with Zelensky’s hand. That will help him with doing away with the embarrassment he faces before his own people but also the rest of the world. More importantly, he would not want Ukraine to have this card whenever negotiations begin. There are no prospects of it now but at some time they will have to happen even if the Russia-Ukraine war has to become a ‘frozen conflict’.

The Europeans cannot be expected to forever keep pumping resources endlessly into Ukraine. Besides, if Trump wins the US presidential election that country’s approach to the conflict may undergo a significant change. In these circumstances it is likely that Russian military action in Kursk will now become vigorous and it is also probable that Russia will warn Ukraine’s Western supporters to refrain from supplying it with weapons that will encourage it to sustain its Kursk campaign. It is noteworthy though that Putin has, at least till the time I am writing these lines, made no mention of the use of strategic weapons. He has done so in the past.

The Biden administration has maintained that it had no prior knowledge of the Ukraine’s Kursk action. At the same time some US Senators have welcomed it. Till now Biden was careful in avoiding to arm Ukraine in a manner that it could inflict real damage on Russian territory. The US inclination was obviously to limit the conflict.

It chose to ‘punish’ Russia through the use of sanctions. It can be expected that it would not want dramatic changes in the Ukraine-Russia situation with the elections less than three months away. It will be interesting to note the nuances of how Trump and his now Democratic rival, Kamala Harris, address the issue in their direct debates.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to visit Poland within a week’s time. It is also expected that he will make a short trip to Kyiv. There will be no surprises if he were to once again emphasise that the path to end this conflict lies only through the paths of discussion and diplomacy.