Ukraine: Towards a peace plan

International media reports indicate that the Trump administration is in the midst of a major push to end the Ukraine war. According to these reports a peace plan has been prepared which is being actively discussed by US mediators with the Russian and the Ukrainian leaderships. The plan is said to have 28 points. The US website Axios has listed these points. Among them are:

--Russia will not invade neighbouring countries and NATO will not expand further. Specifically, both Ukraine and NATO will give legal commitments that Ukraine’s membership of NATO is ruled out.

--Ukraine’s security will be ‘confirmed’ through security guarantees.

--Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea will henceforth be taken as Russian territory although on a de-facto basis. Ukrainian forces will withdraw from those areas of Donetsk and Luhansk that they control but the Russian army will not enter these areas. Kherson and Zaporizhzhia’s territories will remain as they are currently controlled and this situation will not be altered. (Russia has formally annexed these areas into its territories. Of the four Donetsk and Luhansk which have very sizeable Russian speaking populations are of special importance to President Putin).

--Ukraine will limit its armed forces to six hundred thousand personnel.

--Ukraine will be permitted to apply for and join the European Union. While this process is taking place it will implement EU rules on the treatment of minorities.

--The reconstruction of Ukraine will take place with funds from the US, including those that are part of Russia’s funds frozen by US, and Europe. The World Bank will also work on a financial package for Ukraine. The US will have a major economic and commercial partnership with Ukraine.

--Sanctions against Russia will be lifted and it will once again join the G7 group making it G8.

--Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days of an agreement being reached.

The other parts of the plan relate to the measures for mediation between Ukraine and Russia, what would happen if either of these countries break these agreements and that the European powers will not station troops or military aircraft in Ukraine. In addition, there are parts dealing with how both countries will teach tolerance to their school children.

It will be recalled that Trump had boasted during the election campaign that Russia would not have dared to attack Ukraine had he been President. He had also claimed that he would halt the war within a day of assuming office. More than ten months have gone by since he did so but neither the US nor any other power has got close to stopping the war.

The major European powers face a great dilemma. They realise that Russia has broken the principle of sovereignty which is the cornerstone of the European order. They also know that there is no way in which they can compel Russia to withdraw from the areas it controls. However, even a de-facto recognition of Russian territorial gains goes against the European order which these powers put in place after the Second World War and which has maintained peace in a continent which was continuously ravaged by war till then.

Any assessment of the chances of Trump’s peace plan is fraught with the danger of going wrong but it is the job of an analyst to take such intellectual risks. Hence, an assessment is attempted below.

These 28 points are naturally subject to change but the essential requirement of all sides making compromises to end the Ukraine is obvious. No country makes compromises unless it is compelled to do so. That compulsion arises when continuing fighting becomes a hopeless exercise; worse by not accepting a compromise a side risks losing all. Has that stage been reached in the contending powers, Ukraine and Russia, and their supporters?

Clearly, Trump wants the war to a close. To this end he is putting great pressure on Ukraine to accept the reality of territorial loss and focus on rebuilding. He has obviously also indicated to Ukrainian President Zelensky who is facing political difficulties that he will have to go in for elections. The Russians do not want him to continue and would see in a Ukrainian election an opportunity for Zelensky’s political demise. But they will have no alternative to his continuance if he wins the election.

The question is if Zelensky and the Ukrainian people are willing to give up about 20% of their territory? They know that Russia has the upper hand in the war and if Trump carries out his threat of stopping all aid, they will not be in a position to carry on effectively with the war. This is likely to make them drink the poisoned chalice of compromise.

The Europeans also know that without US assistance and support they will not be able to help Ukraine maintain its current military positions. Hence, they may have no choice but to compromise.

That leaves Putin. He knows that he cannot gain more territory if he rejects this plan outrightly. That would incur Trump’s wrath and result in his continuing US support to Ukraine and tighter sanctions. The problem is that Putin wants to reduce Ukraine to a satellite state status. However, its membership of the EU will prevent that. Will he take risks and continue the war? it is difficult to assess this point because he is a quintessential risk taker but it is likely that he will accept the plan after a period of time. In all this China’s advice will be crucial.

As for Trump, the plan shows that he is not one to stick to principles but acts on the instincts of a real estate businessperson. For such a person the reality of possessing land from which a party cannot be ejected is above all else.