Ukraine: As the war lingers on!

The United States and its European allies completely rejected Russia’s invasion of Ukraine which began in February 2022. They have supported Ukraine financially, diplomatically and through the supply of weapons to substantially withstand Russia’s aggression. Without their fulsome support Ukraine could not have sustained itself against the Russian onslaught. The same holds good for the future. US and European assistance are essential for Ukraine. Hence, all those who follow the Ukrainian situation, carefully monitor if sentiments in the political and strategic circles in the US and Europe for supporting Ukraine remain strong or if a fatigue is setting in. It is clear that feelings of ennui on the Russian action will inevitably lead to a dilution of US and European assistance. This may occur even if pro-Ukraine and anti-Russian rhetoric continues to be high.

An element of worry crept in Ukraine and the US and European strategic circles recently. This was because in the temporary budget approved by the US Congress and Senate on September 30 (for 45 days) to ensure the continuance of governmental activity no funds were provided to assist Ukraine. Significantly, this was despite President Joe Biden’s desire that aid to Ukraine should be an item in the budget. This was because a section of hardline Republicans refused to do so because some of their favoured programmes did not find a place in this temporary budget. The Russians were quick to seize on this omission to declare that fatigue against the aggressive policies being pursued by the Biden administration against Russia was evident among the American people. The Biden administration, the Europeans and Ukraine were eager to clarify that the omission of assistance to Ukraine did not mean a change in the allies’ basic approach on the Russian aggression. However, the very fact that despite Biden’s position, no aid to Ukraine was included, compelled him to speak to his allies to reassure them that the US will not back away from its current Ukraine policy. On October 3 he held a conference call which was attended by the leaders of Canada, Germany, UK, Italy and Japan among others. Biden stressed that there was more than US$ 5 billion in the pipeline from earlier allocations and that this would ensure that there would be no discontinuance in assistance to Ukraine. It is noteworthy that some Congress members and Senators expressed that view that bipartisan bill for US aid to Ukraine would be introduced soon to assure the world that US commitment against the Russian aggression remained as strong as before.

On its part the European Union took the unprecedented step of convening a meeting of its Foreign Ministers in Kyiv on October 2. This was the first time that EU FMs met in a country not in the Union. This show of solidarity with Ukraine was not only caused by the US temporary budget but also because of the in the Slovak Parliamentary elections the pro-Russian Robert Fico’s party emerged as the leading party. He has been asked to form the government. It remains to be seen how far he can move away from the EU position on Russia for he will have to head a coalition government. However, the fact that in an EU country there is substantial pro-Russian sentiment cannot but be a factor of concern to the principal EU countries which are opposed to Russia. Ukraine has shrugged off the temporary US budget. Its Foreign Minister said that this was an incident and does not reflect US policy. However, despite these brave words and the warm welcome accorded to Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the US last month, Ukraine would be worried. This is because in the normal course even the fringe Republicans should not have stopped aid to Ukraine even in a temporary budget. Besides, while former President Donald Trump continues to remain entangled in civil and criminal cases his popularity with his base remains intact. Unless an unanticipated development occurs, it is likely that he will win the Republican nomination for the Presidency next year and will be Joe Biden’s rival in the election in November. The electoral process with the primaries will now begin and Ukraine will be on the electorate’s mind though, as usual, domestic economic factors will be more important. Certainly, for US foreign policy and strategic establishment the Russian invasion cannot be countenanced but will this sentiment continue to sway the electorate in appreciable measure. That is what not only the Ukrainian leadership but Europe will also want to know.

The war itself has become one of attrition. If Ukraine continues to get the support it has at present it can hold the line but it is unlikely to push back Russian forces. At the same time, it does not seem possible that Russia will be able to make major territorial gains. Thus, the Ukrainian war is in danger of becoming a chronic conflict. This will give an opportunity to the US and Europe to calibrate the bleeding of Russia but it will have to be kept at a level that does not pose an existential crisis either to Russia or the Putin government. At least that is what the Biden administration will seek to accomplish.

The Russians too, with Chinese assistance, are playing the diplomatic and economic game to ensure that they retain some goodwill in the Global South and countries that matter to it. That was on display at the New Delhi summit in September. This notwithstanding Russia will increase pressure on Ukraine in winter and that will be a period of test for Ukrainian supporters to continue to put their money where their mouth is.