UAE’s Mediation: Looking Through Different Prisms

The two nuclear power countries of South Asia surprised all by suddenly announcing ceasefire on borders in February this year to bring calm in their bilateral relations which had seen their lowest ebb from past few years. The joint statement of their respective DGMOs was welcomed not only by the big powers like the US down to the leaders of South Asian States but it also received a warm welcome from groups in both these countries as well as in Jammu and Kashmir.  The people along the borders took a sigh of relief by such a move. The ceasefire violations are not only about the exchange of heavy shells and mortars across borders, it also brings fatalities, insecurities, derailment of normal activities in these areas plus fear psychosis.

Several questions on seriousness in carrying forward such initiatives; on factors which forced both the states to go for such an engagement; on players in and outside who mediated this process and why so on and so forth surfaced after announcement among the policy circles across the interested players in the Indo-Pak peace process.

Recently UAE confirmed that she is mediating between the two countries to calm their borders and normalize their bilateral relations. Abu Dhabi’s ambassador to the USA Mr. Yousuf Otaiba in a virtual talk to Stanford University Hoover Institution confessed that UAE played her part ‘in bringing Kashmir escalation down and created a ceasefire, hopefully ultimately leading to restoring diplomats and getting the relationship back to a healthy level‘(Aljazeera, 15 April 2021). Since no rejection of such a confirmation was witnessed from two nations leads one to conclude that this could be a willing, tactical, and expedient choice before the leaders of the two nations. Why UAE why not any other power mediated this process? And why did India and Pakistan accept such third-party intervention? This could be due to several reasons.

There has been a shift in the behavior of Emirate for a couple of years now. Her king Prince Mohammed bin Zayed is considered an effective factor in revising its foreign policy goals to respond new realities in the Arab world and beyond. She is trying to come out from the position of junior partner to major power in the Middle East. She has now made a special position in the good books of Saudis, Egyptians, Kuwaitis, and Israelis, the players who are hell-bent to get rid of extremist elements and their supporters like Qatar, Turkey, and Iran. With the signing of Abraham Accords as brokered by the Trump Administration, UAE became a trusted player in the eyes of US and Israeli lobbies to play her part beyond the Middle East. Should we look her ‘mediation’ between two perennial rivals in South Asia as a part of extending the reach of Abraham Accords beyond the Middle East, only time will prove so, however, there are indications of softening the ground for the recognition of Israel by Pakistan.

UAE further, under Prince Mohammed bin Zayed, looks itself a recalibrated economy and political force for South Asia, especially for India and Pakistan. The way India is governed under the current regime fits many Gulf countries including UAE though ideologically poles apart: a centralized top-down-style and robust economic strength. For Pakistan, not a single factor could be sighted as the most critical in this backdrop. The relationship between the two is historical, complex, and somehow fragile over the period. The ‘Afghan factor’ plays its part for UAE looking towards South Asia especially towards Pakistan.

Why has Pakistan accepted such an offer for mediation? Realistically speaking there is no major comparison between India and Pakistani ‘capabilities’, except their more or less equal Nuclear Strength. The latter lags in many respects, but that doesn’t make her less effective in maintaining nuclear deterrence in past two decades. One cannot also ignore the Pak-Sino deep and all-weather commitment to lesser down the growing influence of India in the region. But all these options cannot be explored by any modern nation-state at the same time, this has to reflect the imprint of various outside and domestic factors/pressures in its foreign policy direction. That is why we are always seeing that Pakistan is waiting for any offer whatsoever comes from its neighbor. The media hype of, ‘done for the desire to have peace’ by its political leaders can be a response to satisfy the domestic constituency, but no nation-state can overlook the emerging structural constraints existing outside their borders. There has been a considered realization that India and Pakistan cannot afford a war and continuously on the other side they cannot keep their people hostage to ‘past baggage’. This could be reflected from the statement of its military chief who would say, “Bury the past and move forward“. On the other side, UAE has some bargaining power over Pakistan to influence her to go for such behind-the-curtain-negotiations. The loans and remittances from UAE, radical immigrants from Pakistan into UAE, and the derailed relationship of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have played their part in this process. Repayment of loans could be sought at any time, restricting visas for Pakistani immigrants, inducting more Indians against Pakistanis in UAE economy, and pressures from Saudi Arabia on Abu Dhabi to revisit ties with Pakistan, definitely played its crucial part in bending Pakistan to such negotiations. With this we cannot also overlook, intense pressures exerted on Pakistan, as earlier confessed by PM Imran Khan, to normalize diplomatic relationships with the state of Israel contributed its bit. Further, one can also find it interesting to look in that Beijing’s interest in the Gulf region bridged by CPEC lures Abu Dhabi to strengthen her ties with Pakistan.

Why India? It surprised many how could India go for third-party intervention. Third party intervention? Is it really so? And is it a third-party mediation for the resolution of the Kashmir issue? To me, that is not the case. Though the immediate outcome of mediation was a ceasefire at the borders that did not happen only for Kashmir. The calming western border at the times when India faced continued violent clashes at her Eastern side, could be a calculated and tactical move. Further negotiations might not be happening on sentimental issues; a give and take; autonomy or similar narratives, as the masses in both the countries or in Jammu and Kashmir might be expecting, but on practical out-of-box ideas and alternatives in which no big compromises are done at least from the Indian side. Pakistan seems to have changed its traditional, orthodox positioning (though internationalizing the issue at several forums up to the maximum possibility of their capacities) to lessen down it just to the restoration of statehood for Jammu and Kashmir, the promise already made by the central government in India. So one can also argue that Pakistan has legitimized the 05 August 2019 action.

The growing Indo-UAE ties under India’s policy shift “Look West” since 2014, as reflected through various past bilateral activities, could also be a great factor in persuading India to go for peace with her neighbor. UAE emerged as India’s preferred partner in the Gulf region.  Both the states are enhancing their cooperation in economy, trade, and investment, energy security especially in counter-terrorism. UAE also honored the prime minister of India with its highest civilian award, ‘Zayed Medal’. With this, the growing Israel-India ties over the period should also not be overlooked. Since UAE came boldly to open its arms for Israel, a big motivating factor for Pakistan could be seen to bring India on the negotiating table though in reciprocation for enhancing her engagements with Israel and this all to be done by a nontraditional mediator UAE this time.

The US announcement for the withdrawal of its troops from Afghanistan can be a worrying factor not only for UAE but also for India. India cannot take chances of letting the extremist elements in Afghanistan inimical to India’s interests rise and grab the post-withdrawal vacuum. Analysts see Pakistan emerging a key player in that situation owing to her role played in Taliban-US and Taliban-Afghan government negotiations. So engaging Pakistan could be a pre-emptive diplomatic action on the UAE-India side.

Author is Assistant Professor Political Science, Department of Higher Education, currently posted at HKM, Degree College Bandipora.