Tuesday’s Twin Tests: Political tempers rise

Srinagar, Nov 6: The by-elections in Budgam and Nagrota assembly constituencies scheduled next week on Tuesday have brought old loyalties and new ambitions into sharp focus, offering a glimpse into the evolving political dynamics of Jammu and Kashmir.

While Budgam remains the traditional bastion of the National Conference (NC), the party faces unexpected internal unease this time.

In Nagrota, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is banking on legacy politics to retain a seat long associated with the late Devender Singh Rana.

In Budgam, 20 candidates filed nomination papers, of which seventeen were accepted and three rejected.

Those cleared to contest from political parties include Parvej Ahmad Mir of the Republican Party of India (A), Aga Syed Mahmood Al-Mousavi of the NC, Deeba Khan of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Aga Syed Muntazir Mehdi of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Aga Syed Mohsin Mosvi of the BJP, Mukhtar Ahmad Dar of the Apni Party, Manzoor Ahmad Ganie of the Rashtriya Lok Dal, Shabir Ahmad Ganie of the National Loktantrik Party, Muhammad Shafi Shah of the Sampoorna Bharat Kranti Party, Farooq Ahmad of the J&K National Panthers Party (Bhim), and independent candidates Nazir Ahmad Khan, Muntazir Mohiuddin, Muhammad Sameer Bhat, Muhammad Maqbool Bhat, Jibran Firdous Dar, Aditi Sharma, and Mushtaq Ahmad Bhat.

The crowded field, cutting across political and ideological lines, sets the stage for a multi-cornered contest in the heart of central Kashmir.

However, the campaign in Budgam has been overshadowed by an unexpected development within the NC.

Party’s Srinagar MP and former MLA Budgam, Aga Syed Ruhullah, has publicly refused to campaign for the NC candidate, Aga Syed Mahmood Al-Mousavi.

His absence is significant.

Ruhullah commands a strong personal following in Budgam and adjoining areas, and his decision not to take part in the campaign has reportedly created unease within NC’s local ranks.

In the 2024 assembly election, Omar Abdullah won Budgam with 36,010 votes, securing 54.52 percent of the total polled votes.

PDP’s Aga Muntazir Mehdi was the runner-up with 17,525 votes (26.53 percent).

The result reaffirmed NC’s strong organisational base in the constituency, where voter loyalty has remained largely stable over the years.

The PDP hopes to benefit from the divisions within the NC.

The BJP, represented by Aga Syed Mohsin Mosvi, seeks to maintain symbolic visibility in the Valley’s political scene.

Smaller parties like the AAP, Apni Party, and others may not have the numbers to alter the outcome, but could influence the margin by splitting urban and youth votes.

In the 2024 Legislative Assembly polls, voter turnout in Budgam was 52.68 percent, moderate but consistent with the district’s pattern of cautious participation.

This time, the scale of turnout and the extent of internal NC cohesion are likely to decide the margin rather than the winner.

In Nagrota, 13 nominations were filed and 10 accepted, making the contest equally vibrant but differently poised.

The accepted candidates are Joginder Singh of AAP, Shamim Begum of NC, Qari Zaheer Abbas Bhatti of All India Forward Bloc, Devyani Rana of BJP, Bodh Raj of Apni Party, Harsh Dev Singh of J&K National Panthers Party (India), and Naresh Kumar Chib of J&K National Panthers Party (Bhim), and independent candidates Gulzar Hussain, Anil Sharma, and Shah Muhammad.

The BJP has fielded Devyani Rana, daughter of the late Devender Singh Rana, whose political influence in the constituency transcended party lines.

Devender Rana had earlier represented Nagrota as both an NC and BJP candidate, securing 48,113 votes in the last assembly election, far ahead of the NC’s Joginder Singh, who secured 17,641 votes.

His death created a vacuum that the BJP hopes to fill through a mix of sympathy and organisational strength.

NC candidate Shamim Begum has sought to counter that legacy by focusing on inclusivity and the restoration of statehood, themes that resonate strongly across Jammu’s mixed constituencies.

The presence of J&K Panthers Party leader Harsh Dev Singh adds another layer of competition, while smaller parties and independents could influence margins in close booths.

Nagrota’s demography, comprising a large section of Rajputs and Gujjars, makes it one of Jammu’s most socially complex constituencies.

The BJP continues to enjoy a strong foothold among Rajput voters, but its ability to retain the seat without Rana’s personal appeal remains the key question.

Both bypolls, though limited in immediate numerical impact, carry a larger symbolic weight.

Budgam will test the NC’s ability to maintain unity and discipline at its home turf, while Nagrota will measure the BJP’s capacity to sustain its dominance through legacy rather than personality.

For the NC, holding Budgam comfortably and making a credible showing in Nagrota would reaffirm its cross-regional relevance.

For the BJP, a strong result in Nagrota would confirm that its base in Jammu remains unshaken.

As campaigning intensifies, Budgam and Nagrota stand as reminders that even bypolls can reveal deeper truths about loyalty, dissent, and the reshaping of political identity in J&K.