Trying to find a balance

Turmoil and instability have been a hallmark of various coalition governments in Nepal which is evident from the fact that Himalayan Kingdom has witnessed 16 change-of-guard in 13 years thereby hitting the interests of the common people besides pushing the country into deep financial crisis and debt liabilities, especially a huge loans advanced by China.

Foreign policy experts say that major factors responsible for the collapse of coalation of Prachanda-Oli, duo, included power struggle, style of functioning of prime minister, policy differences, and coalition dynamics which may lead to a more stable dispensation comprising of Nepali Congress, Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) and Janata Samajwadi party.

Yet another coalition of Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) (78 MPs), Nepali Congress (89 Mps), and Janata Samajwadi Party (7MPs) will be headed by former prime minister, K.P.S.Oli which preceded withdrawal of the support to current PM, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Prachanda, a diehard loyalist of China’, on July 3, 2024 thereby reducing it into minority. The Janata Samajwadi party led by Ashok Rai having 7 PMs also withdrew the support and recalled three ministers from Prachanda government. The total strength of Nepali Congress (89 MPs), Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) (78 MPs) and Janata Samajwadi party comes to be 164 whereas the new coalition needs a strength of 138 MPs in the house of 275.

Challenges before new government

Amidst the toppling game, a midnight power sharing agreement between two former prime ministers, viz. Sher Bahadur Deuba, Nepali Congress and K.P.S.Oli, Chairman of Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) was signed on July 5, 2024 leading to a sudden change of regime in Nepal. New coalition government of Oli and Deuba is bound to face multiple challenges which will be key to success otherwise its fallout could be midterm polls. Political observers feel that fragile nature of the new government comprising of the communists (Pro China) and Nepali Congress (Pro India) and Samajwadi Party of Terai areas bordering Bihar makes a formidable combustion though opposing ideologies could pose a major challenge to keep coalition partners in unison and amalgamated.

Second, Oli and Deuba will be under compulsion to keep equi-distance with two regional powers viz. India and China which have got geo-political and strategic interests in the affairs of Nepal.

Third, Oli’s previous stint as PM was marked by his extreme anti India action of redrawing the map which had shown Indian territories including Lipulekh, Limpiyadhura and Kalapani as part of Nepal. It had exasperated India which rejected this misadventure thereby terming it as baseless besides being an attempt to spoil the ties. Now, as dominant partner in the coalition, the onus of checking this tendency will rest on Deuba to prevail upon Oli to come out of Anti-India mentality and protect age-old relations between two nations.

Fourth, communists regimes led by Prachanda and currently Oli gave clear indications about their commitment to China which will expect new government to go ahead with Belt and Road (BRI) initiative though it has been kept in abeyance despite the signing of Memorandum Of Understanding between by Prachanda with Beijing on May 12, 2017. The former PM, Prachanda had reiterated Nepal’s commitment to expedite BRI during his September, 2023 visit to Beijing. At present, it will be an uphill task for Oli to stick to his predecessors’ resolve to toe China’s line about BRI as Nepali congress is totally opposed to China hence chances of any progress seem to be remote.

Fifth,it will be a test of the new government to deal with India’s Agnipath scheme which is one of the major irritants so far. India had launched the Agneepath scheme on June 15, 2022 which was extended to Nepal also but it is still in limbo in Himalayan Kingdom owing to certain reservations. Field reports suggest that there are unemployed youth who may be keen to join the army as Agniveers but two previous governments had dragged its feet and the 3rd one may not be different. The Indian army had planned to recruit 40,000 Agniveers in 2022 and former army chief Manoj Pande had made it clear to withdraw the vacancies if the decision was not filled by the government but nothing has been done so far and there is every chance of rejection by the communists' government.

Sixth, Nepal's border issues with India, including disputes over territories require a multifaceted approach. The new government might adopt a new strategy which includes engaging in high-level bilateral talks with Indian counterparts to discuss and resolve border disputes amicably. Strengthening the Nepal-India Joint Boundary Commission to expedite the resolution of boundary issues through technical and diplomatic means may yield positive results. Increasing security and surveillance along disputed border areas to prevent illegal activities and unauthorized incursions may be of utmost importance to both countries.

Seventh, China has entrapped Nepal like Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh etc into its  “Debt Policy” and advanced a huge loan of Nepali Rs 1,500,000,000 to Rs 2,400,750,000 which may take centuries to repay. Finally, an action plan must be formulated to build and improve the infrastructures in border areas to enhance accessibility and assert presence in disputed regions. By adopting these strategies, the new government in Nepal can address the challenges posed by the Agnipath scheme and the ongoing border issues with India in a balanced and effective manner.

Analysts feel that by withdrawing support from Prachanda and joining hands with the Nepali Congress, Oli is aiming at  establishing a more stable and cohesive government, leveraging a new alliance to secure his leadership and navigate the complex political landscape of Nepal. But the survival of the coalition will depend solely on mutual trust of partners and implementation of balanced diplomatic strategy and refrain from offending two regional giants which had been lacking in the past.

(Writer is political analyst having six year stint in foreign posting in Nepal during transition of the Democracy)