Trump's victory likely to bring global diplomatic shift

New Delhi, Nov 8: As the early dust settles from the 2024 US presidential election, world leaders have extended their congratulatory messages to Donald Trump, albeit with a notable delay from certain quarters. However, Narender Modi was amongst the early leaders congratulating and speaking on the phone directly with Donald Trump.  Among late congratulatory messages were messages from Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, signalling potential diplomatic recalibrations on the global stage.

The India Factor: A Strengthening Partnership

One bright spot in Trump’s foreign policy could be his relationship with India, the world’s largest democracy and a pivotal ally in counterbalancing China. However, India recently is trying to reset its relationship with China and the US continues to remain anxious with increasing India’s oil trade with Russia and Iran.

Within hours of Trump’s victory, Prime Minister Narendra Modi publicly congratulated him, signalling his eagerness to continue their strong rapport. During his previous term, Trump and Modi celebrated their personal friendship and shared a vision for stronger economic and defence ties, including arms sales and enhanced cooperation in counterterrorism.

India’s strategic position as a counterweight to China aligns with Trump’s objectives, and Modi’s government may find Trump’s pro-business rhetoric particularly appealing. However, Trump's emphasis on protecting U.S. jobs may clash with Modi’s efforts to deepen trade ties if policies limiting outsourcing resurface. For India, maintaining a productive relationship with Trump while balancing complex domestic and regional pressures, including its ties with Russia, will be a delicate endeavour.

Putin's Congratulatory Message and the Possibility of Ukraine Peace Talks

Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking at an event in Sochi, delivered a congratulatory message to Trump that includes more than diplomatic niceties. His statement, delayed by nearly 24 hours compared to other global leaders, carried a weight of expectation for renewed dialogue between the U.S. and Russia. Putin remarked on Trump's "courageous" response during an attempted assassination in July, an incident that seemed to leave a lasting impression on the Russian leader.

Putin’s praise extended beyond personal admiration, touching upon Trump's campaign rhetoric about ending the war in Ukraine. “What was said [by Trump] about the desire to restore relations with Russia, to help end the Ukrainian crisis—this, at least, deserves attention,” Putin noted as said by BBC. He emphasised his willingness to engage in discussions with Trump, hinting at a fresh attempt to mend ties that had curdled under previous U.S. administrations.

However, in Moscow, there is a sense of cautious optimism. Kremlin officials are eyeing the prospect of renewed talks with Washington as a strategic opportunity to push for an end to the conflict in Ukraine on terms favourable to Russia. The hope is that Trump, with his declared intent to end the war "in 24 hours" during his campaign, might provide a more favourable negotiating partner than his predecessors.

The previous efforts at rapprochement during Trump’s first term faltered amid domestic controversies and accusations of Russian interference in U.S. politics. However, with a fresh mandate, the Kremlin appears ready to reset the relationship, betting on Trump’s unorthodox approach to diplomacy to broker a deal in Ukraine. Analysts suggest that the path to negotiations will likely involve complex bargaining, with sanctions relief and NATO’s role in Eastern Europe being key points of contention.

Xi Jinping's Cautious Optimism and the U.S.-China Relations

Chinese President Xi Jinping extended his congratulations to Trump on Thursday, urging for improved bilateral relations in what he described as a "new era" of U.S.-China dynamics. His message, delivered through state media, called for strengthening dialogue, managing differences, and expanding mutually beneficial cooperation. Xi’s calculated response highlights the critical juncture at which U.S.-China relations currently stand, as both powers navigate economic, technological, and geopolitical tensions.

The Global Times, a state-affiliated Chinese media outlet, described the 2024 U.S. election as a pivotal event that would reshape international politics. A survey conducted by the Global Times Institute highlighted that a significant majority of respondents from both the U.S. and China expressed deep concern over the state of bilateral relations. Over 70% of American respondents were aware of the escalating economic measures such as tariffs and sanctions between the two nations, while similar levels of concern were echoed by the Chinese public.

Xi's remarks reflect an understanding that the next phase of U.S.-China relations may be crucial. Trump's previous administration was marked by heightened trade tensions, technological dissociation, and a confrontational stance on issues such as Taiwan and the South China Sea. However, the Chinese leadership appears ready to explore avenues for stabilising ties, particularly in areas of mutual interest like climate change and global economic recovery.

Both leaders seem prepared to test the waters for potential cooperation, although with a keen awareness of the complexities involved.

For Putin, the focus will likely be on leveraging Trump's willingness to negotiate directly to secure a settlement in Ukraine that aligns with Russian interests. The Kremlin hopes to use any U.S. overtures as a pathway to ease sanctions and gain strategic concessions from the West. However, the question remains whether Trump can navigate domestic and international opposition to such a move, especially from NATO allies.

Xi, on the other hand, is likely to approach Trump’s second term with a blend of caution and strategic engagement. The Chinese leadership will be looking to ease the economic fallout from ongoing trade disputes and find common ground on global issues where cooperation might be possible, such as pandemic response and climate initiatives.

The initial signals from both Moscow and Beijing suggest that Trump’s re-election has reopened doors for dialogue that had been largely closed during the Biden administration. However, whether these offers will translate into substantive policy shifts or simply serve as diplomatic posturing remains to be seen.

What is clear is that the international community will be closely watching the next steps, as the potential for direct talks between Trump and Putin could mark a pivotal turn in efforts to resolve the conflict in Ukraine and reshape the broader geopolitical landscape.