Trump’s Shadow: How return of Trumpism is reshaping politics far beyond America

New Delhi, May 4: The return of Donald Trump to the White House has done more than remake American politics. It has, however, also redrawn political calculations in capitals far from Washington. As Trump in his second term, has adopted aggressive policies on trade, immigration, and geopolitics, countries hitched to the US economy are witnessing the ripple effects at the ballot box. From Canada to Australia and now Singapore, national elections are beginning to reflect a shared undercurrent: global unease with Trump-era volatility is redefining domestic politics.

Just months ago, opinion polls suggested that opposition parties in Australia, Singapore, and Canada were poised to make gains, or even sweep to power. But when voters headed to the polls, the results defied expectations. Incumbents, especially those able to project stability and economic competence, prevailed. What changed in the interim? A resurgence of Trump’s high-impact, high-uncertainty leadership style has become the defining global backdrop, prompting electorates to cling to what they know.

In Australia, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese led the centre-left Labor Party to a victory, not just retaining power but expanding his parliamentary majority. The campaign, once dominated by cost-of-living concerns and fragile public services, shifted in tone as Trump’s trade wars and diplomatic confrontations re-entered global headlines. Albanese succeeded in convincing voters that in an unpredictable world, his steady hand was preferable to an untested alternative. Peter Dutton, leader of the opposition Liberal-National Coalition, not only conceded defeat but lost his own parliamentary seat.

A similar logic played out in Singapore. The People’s Action Party (PAP), the ruling force in the city-state, secured a win under new leader Lawrence Wong. While the PAP had seen declining vote shares in previous elections, it reversed the trend this time, buoyed by a campaign focused on global economic uncertainty and the promise of experienced leadership. Wong, who gained national prominence managing Singapore’s Covid-19 response, positioned himself as the leader most capable of navigating the country through external turbulence, chief among them the escalating US-China trade war rekindled by Trump.

Singapore, heavily reliant on international trade and highly sensitive to US-China relations, has every reason to worry. With tariffs rising and global supply chains increasingly fragmented, voters responded to Wong’s message of calm amid the storm. Though opposition parties like the Workers’ Party maintained their foothold, they failed to expand.

For Canada polls, The "Trump effect" played out in reverse north of the border. Rather than benefiting from ideological alignment with a powerful conservative figure in Washington, Canada’s Conservative Party suffered electoral blowback. The rhetoric and conduct of Donald Trump, deeply unpopular among Canadian voters, bolstered Prime Minister Mark Carney’s re-election and weakened the challenge from Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. In fact, Trump’s influence became a liability for Canadian conservatives. Looking ahead, the Trump effect may become a defining feature of a new political era marked by heightened nationalism, trade fragmentation, and realignment of alliances. Countries with strong export-led models, like Germany, South Korea, and Mexico, could face intensified domestic political debates over how to hedge against American unpredictability. In Asia, smaller economies such as Vietnam and Taiwan may find themselves pressured to pick sides between Washington and Beijing.

Diplomatically, Trump's America-first posture is already diminishing the US’s moral authority in international institutions, leaving a vacuum that other powers, especially China, are keen to exploit. The shift could embolden authoritarian regimes, weaken multilateral coordination on climate and global health, and deepen the transactional nature of global diplomacy. Politically, centrist and technocratic leaders may gain further ground in countries that fear economic shocks from Trump's policy swings. Ultimately, the world is entering a phase of strategic circumventing, where countries balance internal stability with external alignment. And as recent elections suggest, Trump's return has become more than a US phenomenon it is now a global political variable. How other nations are going to respond in their national elections, only time will tell.