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Trumped again

Trump’s presidency demonstrates a newfound global fascination with polarising, extreme-right strongmen who reject constitutionality and institutional checks
10:51 PM Jan 30, 2025 IST | Ahmad Rizwan
trumped again
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With Donald Trump back in the White House, the world is all keyed up for what looks certain to be the disruptive four years. A glimpse of this was provided by Trump on the first day itself when he signed more than 80 executive orders. These included declaring a national emergency at the US border with Mexico, withdrawing from the Paris Agreement and the World Health Organisation (WHO), and ending birthright citizenship. He canceled Biden-era sanctions on far-right Israeli groups and individuals accused of violence against Palestinians in the West Bank.

Biden’s order earlier had frozen US assets and barred Americans from dealing with Israelis covered by his order. Trump ordered all State Department “politics, programs, personnel and operations” to be made in line with an America First foreign policy, which puts America and its interests first. One of the orders commuted the sentences and granted full pardons to hundreds of individuals convicted or still being prosecuted for their roles in the Jan. 6, 2021, attacks on the US Capitol as Congress convened to certify Biden’s victory over Trump in the 2020 election. What is more, except for Israel and Egypt, Trump halted US aid including for Ukraine and Africa pending reviews of “efficiencies and consistency” with administration aims.

Going forward, things are expected to become more unpredictable. Trump’s ideas about China, West Asia and for that matter about the Russia-Ukraine war are way different from his predecessors. In his last term he had started a trade war with China by drastically raising tariffs on China’s exports. This term he plans to do so with almost the entire world. Also, under his previous presidency, the US by and large abandoned advocacy of democracy and human rights and made relationships with other countries by and large transactional in nature. This largely detracted from the US moral authority. So much so, the country found itself hardly in a position to lecture other states on the conduct of their internal affairs.

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However, immediately it will be interesting to see how Trump deals with the Israeli-Palestine conflict. He is considered a fierce supporter of Israel. In his last term he recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and moved the US embassy there. However, his current term started on a good note. A day ahead of his inauguration, the Israel-Hamas ceasefire took effect which has since been holding. He has appallingly floated the idea that Jordan and Egypt take more Palestinians and “clean out” Gaza.

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The run up to Trump’s takeover was also marked by the fall of Bashar-al-Assad and Israel’s seizure of the buffer zone in the country. Now the new government wants Israel to vacate the zone. It remains to be seen whether Trump forces Israel to withdraw the zone or lets it keep it. Then there is the weakened Hezbollah, an apparently weakened Iran, and Sunni Sheikhdoms who between them make for a complex geopolitical arena. For now, however, the region is likely to see an uneasy calm. Hopefully the Israel-Hamas ceasefire will last and the long rebuilding effort will begin.

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On the other hand, Trump’s approach to the Ukraine war is unlike that of his predecessor Joe Biden. On the stump, he promised to end the war and as president he has already started a discourse for a negotiated settlement, with Vladimir Putin also showing readiness for engagement. Putin even echoed Trump’s claim that conflict in Ukraine could have been avoided had the latter been in power in 2022. But whether the negotiations will eventually succeed can be anybody’s guess. Both sides have irreconcilable positions on the war, which is fundamentally rooted in Russia’s legitimate fear of being encircled by the west with the NATO military bases reaching its doorstep. Many of the Eastern European countries that were once members of the USSR-led Warsaw Pact have become a part of NATO, heightening Russia’s insecurity. And for a negotiated solution, Trump will have to agree to NATO withdrawal and Russia-friendly government in Ukraine, or at least the one deemed to be neutral. The catch is that it is not just about Trump but also about Europe that has invested heavily in bolstering Ukraine’s defenses against Russia over the past three years. Will Europe fall in line considering that an emboldened Russia is likely to make the continent vulnerable to Russian influence, if not threat.

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That said, Trump’s return to power isn’t just about his impact on the current geopolitics, it is also about what this means as a moment in history: It demonstrates a newfound fascination with polarizing, extreme-right strongmen around the world who reject constitutionality and institutional checks and balances. It shows a certain withdrawal from the idea of democracy and human rights in the US and increasingly elsewhere also. In his last term in power, Trump not only rode roughshod over American democracy but also encouraged other strongmen around the world to do the same. He might do this again.

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