Trump: Vague warnings in purple prose!

In a little over six weeks Donald Trump will once again become the holder of the most powerful global office--that of President of the United States. He held it between January 2016 and January 2021. Those four years were a tumultuous time for his country and for the world. He broke from precedent, including, on how a President should conduct himself. One manifestation of that was his habit of tweeting early in the morning, often causing confusion and consternation because what he tweeted was often not in conformity with US official stances and policies on foreign and domestic affairs. The chaotic and even irrational way he handled the Covid 19 crisis with tragic consequences for a country with such advanced health facilities was also emblematic of how he dealt with issues. What the world is wondering now is what is in store after he becomes the US President on January 20, 2025.

An indication that he is not unlikely to change his blustering ways was his comment demanding that the hostages be released by the time he takes office. He did not name Hamas but it was obvious that it was the group that was his target. Taking to the social media Trump posted on December 2 “If the hostages are not released prior to January 20, 2025, the date that I proudly assume Office as President of the United States, there will be ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East, and for those in charge who perpetrated these atrocities against Humanity. Those responsible will be hit harder than anybody has been hit in the long and storied History of the United States of America. RELEASE THE HOSTAGES NOW!”

More than 44000 Palestinians have died in the Israeli response till now to the Hamas’s terrible and unacceptable terrorist attack on Israel on October 7 last year. After this Palestinian death toll will the group whose many leaders have been killed by Israel be really frightened by this Trumpian warning? And, if this threat is to Iran then will its rulers be cowed into submission by it? Has no one briefed Trump on the theologies and history of Shia Islam? And, finally should a President-elect issue vague warnings in purple prose? This is specially applicable to one who negotiated a deal to end the ‘forever war’ in Afghanistan with the Taliban after warning the group and its supporters of dire consequences only to finally enter into an agreement with them to withdraw all US forces from the graveyard of empires.

While Trump’s threat on the hostages was security related, Trump also made a currency related threat to the BRICS countries. Taking to the social media Trump wrote on November 30: “The idea that the BRICS Countries are trying to move away from the Dollar while we stand by and watch is OVER”. He went on to also write: “We require a commitment from these countries that they will neither create a new Brics currency nor back any other currency to replace the mighty US dollar or they will face 100% tariffs and should expect to say goodbye to selling into the wonderful US economy.

They can go find another sucker.” Yes, many countries feel that the idea of another reserve currency should be examined but realistically the chances of such a move fructifying in the foreseeable future is remote. In such a situation is it necessary for a US President-elect to issue such a warning accompanied by a threat of the imposition of 100% tariffs? In any event can the US impose such high tariffs when it imports consumer goods from some of the BRICS countries, especially China? Will that not have a devastating impact on the poorer Americans?

These two examples indicate that Trump in his second term will exhibit the same characteristics which marked his first. This would only contribute to creating confusion when what the world needs from the world’s pre-eminent power is predictability and an attention to taking all countries along to address the existential crises which confront humanity. That it unlikely during Trump’s term.

Trump’s appointments for the offices of the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, and the National Security Advisor, Michael Waltz, show that he is likely to adopt a tough policy on China. He is aware that China poses the greatest threat to US pre-eminence. It has continued to make rapid strides and through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and other international forays it is wooing many countries into a closer embrace with it.

China is displaying predictability and consistency in its international approaches. On the other hand many countries will now be worried that Trump’s bombastic statements are part of his ‘art of the deal’ and will not be translated into practice. Hence, even if he is appointing persons with track records of being ‘hard’ on China he will have to take actions against China that show that he his comments are not merely hot air.

There can be little doubt that the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) and other concerned Indian ministries and agencies would be making assessments regarding Trump’s impact on Indian interests. Interacting with members of Chamber of Commerce and Industry on December 5, External Affairs Minister gave a peep on how India is looking at Trump 2.0.

He said “We’ve always had a positive political relationship with Trump, and I would say that Trump has also had a positive political view of India”. He went on to add that unlike some other countries India did not consider Trump 2.0 as a challenge because “We are in a much more advantageous position to translate 2.0 into a deeper relationship.” Only time will tell if Jaishankar’s optimism is justified in view of Trump’s mercurial nature.