Trump 2.0: India-US Relations
As Donald Trump is going to take office on January 20th following his decisive victory in the US presidential elections, the question arises: how will the India-US relationship evolve under his second presidency? Most geopolitical analysts think that Trump's return to power is unlikely to usher in any substantial shift in this relationship. Because, the fundamentals of this relationship remain very robust with bipartisan support in the US on strengthening strategic ties with New Delhi. Furthermore, supporting India’s continued rise and leadership role in this region is a part of Washington’s long-term grand strategy to counter China in the Indo-Pacific.
India’s strategic role in the US grand strategy
Washington has long seen India as a key element in its Indo-Pacific strategy. Trump's first term in office resulted in some unprecedented developments in US strategic thinking and foreign policy, with his administration officially designating China as a ‘strategic rival'. In fact, it was Trump who adopted the term "Indo-Pacific" in early 2017, replacing the narrower "Asia-Pacific" framework, placing this region as his central strategic focus. This strategic framework underlined strong bilateral and regional cooperation with India. This framework was subsequently picked up by many countries of the world, and they subsequently began to formulate their strategies for this region under this guiding framework. Successive US administrations, regardless of party affiliation, have emphasized, repeatedly, strengthening strategic ties with India. The recent US Indo-Pacific strategy under Biden expressly refers to India as “a like-minded partner and leader in South Asia and the Indian Ocean” … “a driving force of the Quad and other regional fora, and an engine for regional growth and development, underlining the US long-term commitment to assisting India's continued rise.
One of the Trump's most notable contributions to Indo-Pacific security was the revitalization of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), a strategic, informal regional grouping comprising the United States, India, Japan, and Australia. The Quad is a unique strategic framework rooted in the geopolitical realities of the 21st century. It encompasses both security and non-security dimensions, albeit both strategic in nature, aimed at countering China's expanding influence and ensuring a free, open, and rules-based Indo-Pacific. Trump's leadership revitalized this strategic platform, which had previously languished. The various strategic initiatives in the India-US relationship paved the way for their continued expansion throughout the Biden administration.
Key strategic achievements under Trump
During Trump's presidency, India and the US engaged in unprecedented levels of defense and security cooperation. Several milestones were accomplished during his tenure. Trump oversaw the signing of the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) in 2018, which enabled secure communication interoperability between the defense forces of the two countries. In 2019, the extension of the GSOMIA agreement's Industrial Security Annex was executed, allowing Indian private defense companies and their US counterparts to exchange classified information, paving the way for the Indian private sector to become instrumental in the defense cooperation between the two countries. Following this, in 2020, the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) was signed, allowing the two countries to share geospatial intelligence. BECA has significant ramifications for India's maritime and border security, as it improves Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities.
Furthermore, India received Strategic Trade Authorization-1 (STA-1) status under Trump, making it one of just a few US strategic partners able to access advanced defense technologies. This greatly reduced the licensing procedures for India's acquisition of crucial defense technologies. India's defense trade with the US reached historic heights, with important acquisitions including Apache helicopters, MH-60R Seahawk maritime helicopters, and the deal for advanced surveillance drones. Trump's approach was also in greater alignment with India's regional security objectives in South Asia. When India repealed Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir in 2019, Trump remained silent, indicating tacit support for New Delhi’s domestic policies. Furthermore, Trump cut down military aid to Pakistan, which also aligned with India's regional security interests. In fact, there was greater regional security cooperation between the two countries even in South Asia during his term, let alone the Indo-Pacific region, where there was already significant strategic convergence. The ‘westward divergence principle,’ often used in this relationship, was absent to a large extent. Additionally, Trump's Indo-Pacific strategy and his strong rhetoric and trade wars against China paved the way for greater engagement with India. His administration constantly referred to India as a consequential partner in the region and this partnership as the defining partnership of the 21st century.
Pragmatic Transactionalism
Critics frequently describe Trump as transactional, isolationist, and impulsive. In fact, every foreign policy engagement between countries is based on transactionalism. Following India’s deal to purchase the S-400 missile defense system from Russia, Trump did not impose sanctions on India despite the stringent US law (CAATSA) in operation, which requires sanctions on nations that conduct significant defense transactions with Russia, Iran, or North Korea. This reflects his pragmatic and non-impulsive approach to global engagements. Not sanctioning India was a calculated move to avoid derailing its strategic ties with India and to underline the strategic significance of this relationship for the US in the Indo-Pacific region. Even a NATO ally, Turkey, was sanctioned, but not India, which underscores how much he valued this relationship.
Similarly, Trump's contentious decision to negotiate a peace agreement with the Taliban in Afghanistan demonstrated his 'strategic isolationist approach' to America’s shifting strategic priorities. By reducing US involvement in Afghanistan, Trump freed up resources and attention to focus on the Indo-Pacific, where China poses a greater geopolitical challenge and seeks to displace the American-led global order.
Republican Approach: A better fit for India
Historically, Republican administrations have been more favorable to India than their Democratic counterparts. Trump's non-interventionist stance on India's internal affairs contrasts with Democratic presidents, who occasionally use human rights and democratic standards to exert pressure on India. For example, during his presidency, Trump didn’t focus on India's internal issues and instead directed attention towards strengthening its partnership with New Delhi. Trump's realistic approach towards his engagement with India can be understood from the fact that during his February 2020 visit to Delhi, violent communal riots broke out in the city, claiming dozens of lives and injuring hundreds. Despite the gravity of the situation, President Trump chose not to comment on the violence or the underlying issues related to the Citizenship Amendment Act. This silence was interpreted by many experts as his strategic ignorance to avoid straining relations with India. This highlights his diplomatic maturity, strategic foresight, and the importance Trump attached to this consequential relationship. In contrast, Biden has tried to strain the U.S.-India relationship by focusing on non-strategic issues and overlooking the long term strategic interests of both the countries.
Challenges Ahead: Trade and Immigration
While Trump's first presidency significantly enhanced India-US strategic ties, some challenges remain inevitable. Mostly trade and immigration concerns were contentious during his first term, as seen by the suspension of India's Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) status. Immigration rules, particularly those involving H-1B visas, caused some friction. However, such challenges are always there in close bilateral relationships and requires careful navigation and management. These divergences are unlikely to jeopardize the overall bilateral relationship.
Conclusion
Donald Trump's return to the White House is expected to strengthen India-US strategic engagement, especially in the Indo-Pacific region. While trade and immigration issues may come up, the relationship's foundation is solid, driven by shared strategic interests and a long-term US grand strategic vision. As Trump takes office, the India-US cooperation is likely to strengthen and expand, with both countries continuing to work together to strengthen this relationship, preserve regional stability, and support a free and open Indo-Pacific.
Imran Khurshid, Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Kashmir, specializes in Indo-Pacific studies and South Asian security issues.
