Truce attempts fail to end war

NOW in its third year, the Russian-Ukraine war continues unabated. Even today, as this article is being typed, nearly three dozen Ukrainian people, including many children in hospitals, have been reported killed. This very sad incident has evoked a monumental global reprehension against Russia.

It may be recalled that when Russia attacked Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Moscow then declared that ‘it was starting a military operation to support the Russian-backed breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, whose paramilitary forces had been fighting Ukraine in the Donbas conflict in 2014…’ But the Russian July 8 gruesome and ghastly missile attack on a Ukraine’s children hospital killing over 31peole is an inhuman and highly reprehensible.

Meanwhile, the reasons why Russia launched numerous all-out armed assaults against a tiny Ukraine are at variance with Russian contentions. The fact is that Ukraine became a battleground in 2014 when Russia attacked and occupied Crimea from Ukraine, a small state once a part of the former Soviet Union. The main reason of Russia’s attack against Ukraine was believed to be Moscow’s ‘dubious claims of protecting ethnic Russians, and the Russian language-speaking Ukrainian population’s prosecution.’

This nearly 28-month-long ongoing war has also been termed to be merely territorial by modern day security experts; but political pundits liken it to the biblical the David vs. Goliath match. Therefore, now the 250,000-man Ukrainian army against a massively equipped 900,000-strong Russian force appears to be a poor match.

However, the continuously mounting war fatalities, currently estimated as 15,000 so far, amply speak volumes of this grossly unequal war between a confident, defiant Russian President Vladimir Putin, against a sly guileless, ‘terrified-looking’, yet an energetic Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky. Around three weeks after the hostilities commenced, America’s prominent newspaper, The New York Times, commented on March 13, 2022, that Moscow’s aggression against Ukraine that President Putin “is a 19th century figure in a 21st century world…which is somehow more confounding to the modern mind. But today there’s a sense in which being a 19th century man means Putin extremely of the moment – a characteristic figure for our era, not an unfrozen caveman confused by a world that’s passed him by.’’

Meanwhile, it’s a sad commentary on the world community that though this horrific armed clash has claimed hundreds of thousands of lives since it began on February 24, 2022, none of the world’s humanitarian or human rights organizations or a welfare body has come forward to negotiate or help reach a compromise among the warring parties. Though during the early stages of war, the Brazilian President, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, tried to broker peace, but with little success. Later, China came up with a 12-point cease-fire agreement. The Polish President, Alexandar Stub, along with Chinese President Xi Jinping jointly drafted a war cessation plan, but no solid formula emerged, because China wanted the negotiators to distance from the U. S.

On June 16, a two-day international intervention by more than 80 countries in the Swiss Alpine resort was called but China and Brazil declined to attend; the United States was represented by Vice-President Kamala Harris, who could attend the conference just for one day only. At the end of the meeting, a joint statement was signed ‘on the shared principles like promoting prisoner exchange and nuclear safety.’

Besides, the meeting also suggested that ‘further engagement of the representatives of all the parties was necessary ‘to proceed a vague formulation underscoring the lack of common ground on the biggest question hanging over the gathering: when, and how, should Ukraine and Russia seek to negotiate peace. It was contended that it may then be possible to arrive at some agreed complot during the second meeting. It was also hoped that when India, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey and other nations join the negotiations, some workable, viable solution might be found to explore a jointly-brokered peace plan and bring about the much-needed truce to end this nearly 900-day-old horrific war. ‘To end the war’, as The New York Times recently put it, ‘diplomatic backing could strengthen Ukraine’s hand in eventual peace talks. But developments on the battlefield would be sure to shape any settlement.’

Paradoxically, Russia, on the other hand, is reported to have ruled out peace in fighting, as Brazil President Lula who has been working intensely to end the war. Lula has also opined: ‘Unless Ukraine agrees to the terms set by Moscow for a potential truce deal…Russia won’t allow Ukraine to rearm under the garb of cease-fire,’ and ‘nothing will happen until Ukraine and Russia want to,’ but weakened the west’s support,’ and further added that ‘nothing will happen until the west keeps ‘encouraging the war by arming Ukraine.’

Meanwhile, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky is reported to have said, he would continue his diplomatic push in order to prepare for a second round when peace talks could be presented to Russia. He said Ukraine was already in talks with countries that had indicated interest in hosting such a meeting.

It’s. however, important to keep in mind the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry’s statement that while searching a theory to conclude the war, it should be kept in mind that there’s ‘no legal, political or moral reason why Ukraine should give up even a centimeter of its land. Any mediation efforts to restore peace must be based on respect for this nation’s sovereignty and full restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity.

It will, therefore, be important for the negotiators to know that Ukraine’s total war casualties, as per estimates by the US Intelligence were between 189,500 and 232,000 in February 2022. The recent most estimated fatalities are around 500,000 +. Ukraine’s territorial loss is said to be about 62,000 square miles or around 27 per cent of its overall area.

Finally, be that as it may, while it has truly been an excruciating experience for the whole world to sit and helplessly witness the horrendous stalemate where hundreds of unarmed people die day in and day out. After the numerous world wars of the past, the Russo-Ukrainian war is the most tragic event to happen. And the greatest tragedy of it is that the world community has let it continue and do precious little and watch it continue even after nearly 900 days, and heavy death toll.

M. R. Dua, former professor-head, journalism department, Indian Institute of Mass Communication (IIMC), New Delhi, and an ex-faculty Journalism, California State University, US.