Time for people's verdict

After 10 long years, the September 18 polling is marking the beginning of the people's verdict in  the  Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections. Later, polling will be held on September 25 for second phase and on October 1 for the third and final phase of the  polls.

In view of the drastic changes since August 5, 2019, this election gained extraordinary importance. So,  the verdict  to be given by the people will  be equally more important. Usually parties contest the polls  for getting political power. While doing so they make some promises with the masses and also refer to their achievements in the past. Right now every major political party is saying that a vote for it is also a vote for the vindication of its stand on August 5, 2019 decisions of the Central Government.

On August 5, 2019, the Articles 370 and 35-A were abrogated and the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir bifurcated into two union territories. ( Ladakh was made a separate union territory). Thereafter a  number of laws were  made and orders issued, which evoked criticism among the political circles here.

BJP says the August 5, 2019 decisions marked  the start of a  new Jammu and Kashmir, which is free from terrorism, separatism, corruption and dynastic rule of three families ( Abdullahs, Muftis and Gandhis). The party leaders view that a new era of peace and development  has begun and discrimination against various sections of people and regions has ended.  BJP is seeking votes on its decisions and vision of "Naya Kashmir" with an assurance to supporters that the Articles 370 and 35- A are gone for ever and will never come back.

Two major parties in Kashmir, National Conference (NC) and PDP, which are fighting against each other also, say vote to them is a vote against Central Government's decisions on August 5, 2019 and rejection of BJP's polices about J&K. NC in its manifesto among other things has also talked about restoration of greater autonomy, Articles 370 and 35-A, and statehood to Jammu and Kashmir, besides getting back the powers of the chief minister and the assembly. However, the party's critics allege that all its promises regarding restoration of autonomy have proved hollow and the latest promises too can meet the same fate.

NC's pre-poll alliance partner, Congress in its manifesto and its campaigning is laying stress on the restoration of statehood. The party has come under severe criticism by the BJP for its alliance with NC, which advocates autonomy, Article 370 and 35-A. However, Congress has hit back saying that BJP has no moral right to target it since the saffron party was part of NDA government  with NC at centre in past and later formed coalition government with the PDP after the 2014 assembly polls.

PDP in its manifesto besides other things has advocated solution of Kashmir issue within Indian constitution and restoration of Article 370 and 35- A.

Other parties, Apni Party, People's Conference,  Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP) and Awami Ittihad Party (AIP) have also released their manifestoes and urged the people to vote for them.  Senior leaders of political parties, their candidates and independents remained busy in hectic campaigning in south Kashmir constituencies and in those constituencies in Jammu, going to polls in the first phase. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah addressed BJP's election rallies in Jammu region.

This time the BJP leaders say that their party will open its account in Kashmir  and also form its own government. They say if they need the support of like minded parties or individuals  in Kashmir in government formation they will go for it.  However, they rule out any coalition with NC and PDP.

The BJP leaders also rule out the  NC-Congress alliance coming to power in J&K and claim that formation of such a government will prove disastrous on all fronts. BJP is trying to neutralise the increasing influence of Congress in Jammu and also making efforts to address resentment among some sections of the party over the distribution of mandates. If resentment issue is not effectively addressed in time it can damage the interests of BJP in Jammu. This problem is also existing in other parties including NC, PDP and Congress in Kashmir.

While NC and PDP were in the process of  addressing the problem of resentment over mandates, some new challenges emerged before them. The first challenge is the contesting of election by the ex-members of banned Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI). And the second challenge the campaigning  for his party candidates by  Member Parliament and Chief of AIP Er Rashid after his release from jail on interim bail.

The massive defeat of NC Vice President Omar Abdullah by Er Rashid in Baramulla parliamentary constituency  some months back has caused fear in the minds of NC, PDP and Congress leaders about more such surprise and dramatic defeats by AIP to their parties in assembly polls. The Baramulla MP after his release has been hitting left, right and centre and hardly sparing anybody. He particularly targeted former chief ministers Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti.

Rashid said his victory in Lok Sabha polls was a rejection of the decisions of government of India on August 5, 2019 by the people of Kashmir. He says he is seeking votes for his party to strengthen the voice against these decisions.

NC and PDP too launched a full scale political onslaught against Rashid. PC President Sajad Gani Lone also hit out at him.

NC leadership view that the Rashid factor has lost its steam now and it is not going to affect their party anymore. According to them, when he contested parliamentary polls from Baramulla and won, he was in the jail at that time and there was a "sympathy wave" for him. "Now he is out of jail on interim bail and showing his real colours. People understand everything," the NC leaders said. NC leadership is very much optimistic about the support of its party's deep rooted cadre base and view that this support will help their smooth sailing in elections.

Some political observers feel that more division of votes due to mushrooming of contesting parties and candidates may affect NC also but it can cause more damage to PDP. According to them in past the PDP used to get good number of floating votes and such votes may get divided this time.