The world after the Gaza ceasefire

The Arab world seemed to have rushed to sign US President Donald Trump’s ceasefire agreement in an attempt to halt the Israeli assault on Gaza and possibly alleviate its own sense of shame. However, before committing to the truce, they could have secured a promise from the American President for the establishment of a Palestinian state, potentially curtailing Israel’s expansionist ambitions in the region. This is particularly pressing given the current circumstances, as emphasized by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s statements in parliament about retaining the Golan Heights while in the presence of the US President.

The genocide of the Palestinians may have temporarily subsided, and there is a vague hope of alleviating enforced starvation. However, the prospects for establishing a Palestinian state and achieving self-determination remain unclear in Trump’s twenty-point plan.

Historically, whether it was the Oslo Accords or the Camp David Summit, Israel has ignored these agreements in the face of international pressure. It has deliberately stifled the statehood of Palestine, preventing it from regaining autonomy. By maintaining control over the region, Israel has inflicted severe oppression and violence, resulting in the deaths of thousands, all without accountability from the international community.

Trump has been a staunch ally of Israel, supporting the country when it faced isolation and disapproval from much of the world, especially amid efforts to arrest Netanyahu. As one observer stated, “America never wants to see a weak Israel in the Middle East.”

Israel has historically served as America’s strategic asset in the region, allowing the US to manipulate Arab nations for its own interests, securing petrodollars and military bases. Instead of relying on fellow Muslim countries, many monarchs rely on the US and maintain control over their subjects.

While the West promotes democracy, it simultaneously supports these monarchies. The Arab Spring sought change but was quickly suppressed, as the establishment of democracy in the region threatens American interests.

During the recent UN General Assembly, when some countries announced the recognition of a Palestinian state, Trump quickly gathered leaders of influential Muslim nations to discuss the Gaza ceasefire.

On one hand, the potential unity among Muslim countries, which appeared inevitable following the Israeli attack on Qatar, was deliberately thwarted. On the other hand, the two major Arab nations involved in the Abraham Accords—who had signalled their intention to withdraw from the agreement due to intense public backlash—were urged to strengthen their ties with Israel once again. Here, the United States, prioritising Israel’s interests, pushed the Arabs back into a climate of mistrust that had persisted before the China-brokered agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

The United States has consistently aimed to keep Arab nations at odds with Iran, promoting a Shiite-Sunni divide that fosters scepticism about each other’s intentions among sects. Western media have further amplified this divide to maintain their control over the narrative.

How did eight Muslim countries agree to the demand that Hamas disarm after dismantling several armed Palestinian organisations without adequate guarantees? Will the armies of these countries intervene to protect the people in the event of Israeli aggression against the Palestinians? Has it been guaranteed that Israel will cease its acts of violence? On the second day of the ceasefire, Israel killed a dozen Palestinians, yet not a single statement has emerged from these eight countries.

In the past, imperialist powers created colonies in various countries; today, however, they have merged wealthy Arab countries with their own interests, effectively turning Palestine into a colony. This situation resembles a massive international colonial project that has involved Muslims as unwitting participants.

Hamas had the potential to evolve into a Palestinian army, but why have the Muslim countries not embraced this idea? Is it because they have acquiesced to Israel’s dominance in the region by calling for a ceasefire? The question of how Palestinians will defend their lives remains uncertain.

However, there is a glimmer of hope.

If the ceasefire holds, it could lead to the downfall of Netanyahu’s government—a scenario he would undoubtedly want to avoid. Recent signs indicate that the US is dissatisfied with Netanyahu’s war-perpetuating policies and believes its influence over Arab countries is waning. These countries may be considering leaning towards Russia and China for support.

As diplomatic expert Rashid Suleiman notes, “Israel cannot be isolated, but we could very well say goodbye to Netanyahu, which now seems likely.”

The inclusion of Pakistan in the new US diplomatic efforts regarding Gaza is also significant; it suggests that the US is re-engaging in South Asia and West Asia with the same enthusiasm it displayed before leaving Afghanistan a few years ago. Pakistan’s involvement is crucial for securing the Bagram base, especially in light of recent clashes along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. Additionally, the quest for mineral deposits in Central Asia is becoming more attainable via Afghanistan, as Russia has closed all routes on its side. Should Russia’s influence in Ukraine grow, access to this region might become increasingly limited.

Donald Trump, through his personal connections, has made significant efforts to persuade Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine. However, Putin appears to believe he has already gained control over half of the country. As the conflict continues, he could potentially seize more territory and further weaken the economies of NATO countries.

Western governments have been pressuring the United States for a ceasefire in Gaza, attempting to shift focus away from Gaza and redirect attention towards Ukraine. The military support, both in terms of weapons and funding, that was previously designated for Israel is now being redirected to Ukraine in hopes of inflicting a defeat on Putin. For his part, Putin views support from China, Iran, and North Korea as an opportunity to bolster his military capabilities with the ambition of overcoming Western dominance.

The truce in Gaza has been interpreted by some as a victory for those involved, instilling confidence among them that they can prevail over Moscow.

Several motives may lie behind the Gaza ceasefire.

Some Muslim countries believe they have fulfilled their moral obligation by intervening to stop what they perceive as genocide, despite accusations of betraying the Palestinians. These nations could have pursued diplomatic relations with Israel independently of a ceasefire, as many Muslim countries have made defence agreements with Israel amid the ongoing violence.

Hamas and the Palestinian people find themselves with limited options. The resilience this nation has shown in the face of genocide, starvation, and displacement is extraordinary. Despite immense suffering, they remain courageous and determined, even as they have lost innocent lives and children in their struggle to draw attention to their plight.

Meanwhile, the Western world faces scrutiny from its own citizens, who have taken to the streets carrying Palestinian flags in solidarity.

It seems unlikely that Russia will agree to a ceasefire as it aims to witness the decline of the Western economy.

Unlike American support, Israel’s image has been significantly damaged, and it has lost much of the sympathy it had after the Second World War. America’s major initiatives have been overshadowed by Israel’s policies, which many view as genocide. As a result, Trump may need to make these initiatives a law to secure multiple election victories to see them through.

The Western world finds itself in a dilemma, trying to devise secret strategies to break Trump’s diplomatic monopoly, who leaves no chance to ridicule them on a world stage, much like he would with certain Muslim monarchs.

Nayeema Ahmad Mahjoor,

Author and Senior Journalist