The test starts for Omar now...

Omar Abdullah is not new to either politics or the office of chief minister. Totally thinned hairline narrates the story of his journey from first becoming chief minister in 2009 for eventful five years, to taking oath of office for the second time on October 16, 2024. A decimated state demoted to two Union Territories, divested of special powers under Article 370, and with a Lt Governor overtly empowered to lord over him. This is certainly not a situation Mr Abdullah would have liked to begin his second stint as chief minister with.

The challenges for the National Conference-Congress-CPM-AAP (I.N.D.I.A) alliance or more so for Mr Abdullah, came sooner than expected. Two developments, though contrasting, taking place on or before the oath taking day could be nothing short of the coming events casting their shadows. It should worry not only him but also the entire top leadership of the National Conference and the Congress.

The more important one is the 29-member strong BJP contingent deciding to stay away from the swearing-in ceremony. The indications to this effect were available a day before when the party’s working president Mr Sat Sharma came out with a strange statement: “The newly elected MLAs of BJP will use their own discretion to attend the swearing-in ceremony……….”, he said.

Omar Abdullah, before he took oath, made all the correct noises and the effort seemed to be to create a congenial political atmosphere for smoothly running the government. There is a plethora of issues that the new government has to address and find solutions to, Mr Abdullah is perhaps fully aware of that. That is why he emerged as a more mellowed down and changed person. Whether it manifests in his future actions will be keenly observed.

However, by abstaining from the swearing-in ceremony, using discretion or otherwise, the BJP top brass seemed to have embarked on a path to spoil Mr Abdullah’s party. It is too early to draw any final conclusion but given the full-scale confrontation between the central government and Aam Aadmi Party’s (AAP) Delhi government, the BJP MLAs’ abstention should only send the alarm bells ringing. After all Jammu and Kashmir’s administrative set- up is modelled around Delhi where the Centre through its representative, Lt Governor, rules supreme. Is Jammu and Kashmir headed the Delhi way? If not, then why the BJP decision to boycott the swearing-in ceremony?

A conciliatory start towards the first elected government could have been more creditworthy for the central government, particularly when it is being credited with controlling militancy. A stable government with elected representatives reaching out to solve people’s problems is the best way towards sustaining peace.

The second development, which though should be less worrying for Mr Abdullah was certainly avoidable. It was the last-minute decision of the Congress to remain content with providing outside support despite being in a pre-poll alliance with the National Conference and other I.N.D.I.A constituents. Was it a confusion or confrontation on who among the two top leaders of Jammu and Kashmir Congress, PCC chief Mr Tariq Hamid Karra, and AICC general secretary Mr Ghulam Ahmed Mir will get the sole cabinet berth meant for the Congress which has only six MLAs in the new House?

Paradoxically this likely clash has occurred before the AICC could even undertake a review of what led to the party’s total debacle in its perceived stronghold, Jammu, where it was supposed to take the BJP head-on. More than a week has passed since the election results came but there is no indication of the party high command taking a review of the situation in Jammu and Kashmir. Leave aside fixing the responsibility. On the contrary a slugfest has started for the possible one out of the four Rajya Sabha seats that National Conference could offer to Congress. Those who suffered successive humiliating defeats in Lok Sabha and subsequently assembly elections, seemed to have placed themselves as the front-runners. This is simply because of the Congress high command’s reluctance to fix responsibility for poll debacles.

Whether to stay out of the government is a conscious decision or borne out of a fresh crisis, it does not augur well for the coalition and more so for the Congress which stood decimated in the UT. Keeping all their differences apart including framing a common minimum programme, which is bound to be ridden with varied perceptions given the differing nature of political discourse in Jammu, and Kashmir regions, Congress participation in the government would certainly have sent a positive message. It could have made the ruling coalition look more cohesive and Congress less vulnerable to the pressure of fragmented mandate.

With the surprise defeat in Haryana and having lost its stronghold Jammu, even a minor crack in the I.N.D.I.A combine could have unimaginable consequences for Congress, particularly when the opposition bloc is headed towards another electoral contest in politically important Maharashtra and Jharkhand.