The Tariff Tremor: How US-China trade war is shaking the world and touching your life

New Delhi, April 09: As the United States enforces a sweeping 104% tariff on Chinese imports today, the long-standing economic tensions between the two superpowers will boil over into a full-blown trade war. Far from being a distant diplomatic spat, this clash threatens to impact the global economy, disrupt supply chains, raise prices for ordinary consumers like you and me, and reshape the economic order from New York to New Delhi.

This means a new chapter in the global economic conflict is knocking at your doors, as the United States imposes a 104% tariff on all Chinese imports starting April 9. This move, confirmed by White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, signals the most aggressive action yet in the long-running trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

The Trump administration just yesterday in a press briefing reiterated clearly that there will be no delays, no extensions, and no exemptions. This is a firm stance intended to reassert American dominance in global trade and curb what it sees as China’s unfair economic practices.

Leavitt said that President Trump expects these tariffs to go into effect as scheduled and sees no reason to soften his approach, arguing that retaliation from China was a mistake that only justified the U.S.'s hardline response.

Trade wars may sound like abstract tit-for-tat between governments, but ordinary people deeply feel their consequences. It is like when two elephants fight, the grass below gets trampled.

For a common person to understand tariff war in simple terms is a trade war that begins when countries impose taxes, called tariffs, on each other’s goods, making them more expensive to import.

While this is meant to protect local industries and punish the opposing country, the fact remains that the added cost is always passed down to consumers. That means if you are an American, Chinese or even Indian, the price of electronics, smartphones, toys, clothing, or even home appliances could soon rise sharply.

If China is taxed, the Chinese firms will increase the rates. The axe is going to fall on the consumers. Many of these goods are either made in China or depend on Chinese parts.

For example, a large share of Apple’s products are assembled in China, and the tariff shock has already caused Apple’s market value to decline significantly. The market shares of Apple and other tech companies are shaky.

If tariffs double the cost of imports, consumers could end up paying hundreds more for the same phone or laptop. When we look towards the Chinese side, Chinese consumers will also face higher prices for American goods like soybeans, medicines, and petroleum due to China's retaliatory tariffs.

China and the U.S. together account for roughly 43% of the world’s GDP. Any economic slowdown in these two giants will send shockwaves through the international market.

Stock markets have already started trembling in the US, Europe, Asia and even China. In China, the Shanghai Composite and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped significantly following Trump’s announcement.

In the U.S., all major indices, including the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq, closed lower as investors absorbed the news. A prolonged trade conflict could slow down global trade, dampen business confidence, and cause multinational companies to pull back on investments.

This trade dispute has roots going back years. The U.S. has long accused China of playing unfairly, using state subsidies to support industries, stealing intellectual property, and manipulating its currency to give its exports an advantage.

In the last eight years, we have seen in the successive American administrations of both Trump and Biden that they have added layers of tariffs to Chinese imports. Though these tariffs initially aimed to narrow the trade deficit, currently standing at nearly $295 billion, they have had limited success.

China has adjusted by routing goods through Southeast Asia, assembling them in countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia, and then exporting them to the U.S. from there. Now, even those countries may face tariffs, as the U.S. attempts to plug every backdoor that allows Chinese goods into its market.

While this trade war seems like a two-way fight, its effects are global, and one country that stands to both gain and lose is India.

India will have to walk a tightrope, on a razor's edge that is visible as they are maintaining a strategic patience and hardly commenting on it.

Many analysts and economists suggest and believe that the trade disruptions between the U.S. and China will create opportunities for India to position itself as an alternative manufacturing hub.

Multinational companies looking to reduce their dependence on China may see India as a stable, large-market destination with a growing workforce. This will definitely lead to increased foreign investment, job creation, and export growth for Indian industries, especially in electronics, textiles, and pharmaceuticals.

However, there are also risks. India depends heavily on China for imports of raw materials, including components used in its smartphone, automobile, and solar industries. Tariff hikes and supply disruptions could increase input costs and create inflationary pressure in India.

Moreover, a global slowdown triggered by a prolonged U.S.-China conflict could hurt India’s export sectors and dampen economic growth. In short, while India has a window of opportunity, it must act strategically to benefit without being caught in the crossfire.

Here is a caveat, which needs strategic thinking. India also needs to consider the geopolitical context not to be seen capitalising on Beijing's setbacks.

India and China are not just economic competitors; they are strategic rivals locked in a tense border dispute along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), most recently flaring up in the deadly 2020 Galwan Valley clash. It took five years to reset the relationship. Though the borders have remained silent and peaceful, trust between the two nations remains fragile.

If India were to aggressively seize the economic vacuum left by China, Beijing may interpret it as opportunistic and retaliatory, potentially reigniting tensions along the borders.

China has gained quite an access in our neighbourhood countries like Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh. One needs to checkmate strategically any thinking on their part using these friendly countries against India using their hybrid tactics, ranging from cyber intrusions to aggressive infrastructure expansion in disputed areas leading to low-intensity pressure along the border to remind India of the costs of aligning too closely with the United States or the West against it.

Any uptick in border incidents along the Line of Control or heightened diplomatic and sub-conventional friction will lead to our distraction, which usually is China’s way of indirectly influencing what in diplomatic parlance is called “salami slicing “, increasing their presence in the Indian Ocean and creating pressure.

So, in no case should India be seen replacing China immediately in global supply chains or aligning instantly with U.S. trade and security interests.

Therefore, while India has much to gain economically from the global recalibration of trade away from China, it must tread carefully and on its own pace, terms and conditions that will require balancing opportunity like a rope dancer with strategic patience and diplomacy leveraging the moment without triggering the geopolitical traps that come with it.

The third front that India needs to be cautious is with Bangladesh. The recent visit of Bangladesh Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus to China followed by his comments on India’s north east states calling them landlocked needs to be taken seriously. We have seen that these states are already doing great business with Bangladesh, both legal and illegal. The pouring in of smuggled Chinese goods into India through the porous borders of the northeast will definitely be a worry for India.

At the heart of this trade war between the US and China lies more than just economics. It is a contest for global influence and future technological dominance.

China is a key supplier of critical raw materials like lithium, copper, and rare earth metals that are needed and are essential for electric vehicles, military equipment, and green technologies.

Media reports suggest that it has already restricted exports of gallium and germanium, materials used in radar and thermal imaging and could extend these limits further. On the other hand, the U.S. is expanding its blockade on the export of high-tech microchips to China, aiming to stall its progress in fields like artificial intelligence and quantum computing, as reported by the international media.

The battle has moved beyond simple goods into the realm of innovation and national security. China has repeatedly said that it will “fight to the end,” viewing these aggressive tariffs as coercion rather than negotiation. As both sides dig in, the global economy watches anxiously.

Economists are repeatedly warning that a prolonged trade war could lead to lower growth, rising prices, job losses, and reduced global cooperation.

For the average person, this means the cost of living may rise while job security becomes less certain. From the groceries in your basket to the phone in your pocket, the US-China trade war may soon touch parts of your life in ways you did not expect.