The Poll Preparation

Numerically, in terms of Lok Sabha seats, J&K (5), and Ladakh (1) may not look an attractive proposal for the arch rivals BJP and Congress. But the strategic position of the region and developments following August 5, 2019, have made the area difficult to overlook for the two parties. Though for different reasons.

It is in this backdrop that former Congress president Mr Rahul Gandhi’s statement regarding J&K and Ladakh assumes significance. The occasion was a meeting with party leaders from the two Union Territories summoned to elicit their views on striking alliance with I.N.D.I.A partners namely National Conference (NC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)

“J&K is the priority of the Congress. We do not go by the number of Parliamentary seats there in J&K and Ladakh. For our party J&K and Ladakh are a priority,” said Mr Gandhi. This observation holds significance in the backdrop of the response that his Bharat Joda Yatra had evoked in J&K and also the announcement of Yatra-02 form of East to West (Manipur to Maharashtra), Bharat Nyaya Yatra which he will undertake from January 14.

The series of meetings with the state and UT leaders and announcement of Mr Gandhi’s Yatra-02 reflect efforts of the party towards poll preparedness against an ever-prepared BJP.

The BJP-led dispensation at the Centre has been postponing assembly elections for nearly five years ostensibly not finding atmosphere congenial for its victory that many feel would be like affixing a stamp on the Narendra Modi government’s J&K-policy with a focus on developments related to Article 370. An electoral defeat would mean rejection of this policy. Since 2024 Lok Sabha elections are indispensable and holding simultaneous assembly poll a possibility in view of September 2024 deadline fixed by the Supreme Court, hence the significance of J&K for BJP.

The views emanating from three meetings which the Congress leaders from J&K held with central leaders in New Delhi reflect that contesting elections in coalition is a foregone conclusion.

The Congress is gearing up to wrest the three seats namely Jammu, Udhampur and Ladakh from BJP. The saffron party has its task cut out to retain these segments in the face of stiff public resentment on account of issues pertaining to rights of empowerment, employment, development, as promised at the time of August 5, 2019 Constitutional changes. The resentment is common to both the Union Territories that have the potential to derail Mr Modi’s J&K policy on the ground.

However, it will be easier said than done given the current state of affairs in the Congress particularly in J&K where the factionalism has been somehow tied down with pressure from Delhi but internal squabbles refuse to die down. The first pre-requisite for the party should be to set its house in total order.

As both the seats of Jammu region fall in the Hindu populace, including Schedule Caste dominated areas, with just a sprinkle of Muslim voters, the Congress will have to face massive Hindutava resurge that the BJP is all set to create with the inauguration of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya. It will be a formidable challenge for the Congress on how to face the resultant communal polarization.

The answer lies in formulating the right caste formulations by providing proper representation to dominant castes, giving them a feeling of participation in decision making. It is in this context that while undertaking selection of candidates, caste equations must be figured out and kept in mind. Currently there is no leader of a stature for Congress in J&K who could override the caste calculations. So, the need for caste configuration.

As against the Hindutava agenda of the BJP, in J&K in particular, should have to evolve a combination of two to three dominant castes which will make it easy for the Congress to muster the support of the minority communities particularly Muslims. This combination has more potential of getting consolidated with the I.N.D.I.A combine partners - Congress, NC and PDP coming together that would prevent division of Muslim votes both in Jammu region, for the benefit of Congress, and in Kashmir to aid the Valley centric NC and PDP.

Interestingly, these issues figured in the Congress meetings and the high command, for a change, seemed pretty seized of the ground situation. The views expressed by the J&K and Ladakh leaders should further strengthen their resolve on this front. It has to be followed to the logical end if the BJP is to be affectively checkmated. The focus should be on statehood and securing political empowerment through protection of land and employment rights on the lines of Himachal Pradesh and North-East states which will enable the party attract elements that are cut-up with the BJP.

What makes the Congress interactions more significant is the fact that the central and UTs leaderships seemed on the same page on the issue of forging alliances unlike the situation in Punjab and Delhi. Since similar feelings are emanating from the NC and PDP camps, the task of having a formidable alliance has the likelihood of becoming much easier in J&K and Ladakh than in other states and UTs.

The challenge for the Congress is to keep its house in order. This problem was compounded after the exit of Ghulam Nabi Azad.

In this connection elevation of former Pradesh Congress Chief Ghulam Ahmed Mir, first to the Congress Working Committee as its member and then making him AICC general secretary, is an effort to fill the void created by Mr Azad’s exit. Mr Mir though a seasoned campaigner lacks stature and will have to walk an extra mile if he is to fill the shoes of Mr Azad.