The Electoral Battle

Having always been a traditional stronghold of National Conference (NC) and Congress, the Kargil district’s results for the just concluded Ladakh Autonomous Hill Development Council (LAHDC) elections were also on expected lines.

The only but important curiosity among the political circles was to see whether or not there is any change in the electoral politics of the district after the major developments of August 5, 2019.

And that whether BJP will be able to play a master stroke by defeating NC and Congress after separating Ladakh from the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir and making it a separate union territory? But this did not happen. The verdict in the recent polls indicates that there is no visible change on the ground as of now.

The scene is almost similar to what it was in 2018 LAHDC- Kargil polls when Ladakh was part of the erstwhile state of J&K and Article 370 and Article 35 A were not abrogated. At that time NC had emerged as the single largest party with 10 seats followed by Congress with eight at number two position.

No party had got the absolute majority number of 14 seats in the 30 seat council. Elections are held for 26 seats, while the rest four members are nominated by the administration.

The only difference noticed this time in the electoral arena was the absence of PDP, which had won two seats in 2018. The party did not field any candidate. Both of its councillors had joined BJP after August 5, 2019. Whatever the strategy of PDP for Kargil this time but the absence there can hit its electoral interests in J&K and both NC and Congress will try to take an advantage out of it.

This time in Kargil, NC and Congress, who had a seat sharing arrangement, have added two seats each to their tally of 2018 (NC bagged 12 and Congress 10). None among them has been again able to touch the magic majority number of 14. As already decided by the two parties they will share the political power together in the council by likely sharing the posts of four executive councillors equally. NC and Congress will having the post of chairman cum chief executive councillor in rotation for two and a half years each. BJP which had won only one seat in 2018 has bagged two seats in this election. The four members, with voting right, who are to be nominated by Ladakh administration are also likely to join BJP as had happened in 2018.

J&K BJP president Ravinder Raina is of the opinion that his party has improved its performance in Kargil.” Before 2018, our party was nowhere there. But in 2018 we won one seat but this time we bagged two. Two independent candidates supported by us also emerged victorious in just ended polls. We stood second at seven places. Our vote share percentage also increased. We will further consolidate our position in coming times in Kargil and emerge as a strong political party, “ he said.

Raina stated that the NC and Congress have been strong rivals in Kargil district. “ They fought against each other at several places in this election also and after poll results they are saying that their alliance has won,” he said.

In 2018 also, NC and Congress had shared the power in the council for some time. After 2019 Lok Sabha polls Congress withdrew the support due to some serious differences. Even after the development, NC continued to be in the power saying it had the support of few independent councillors. But BJP later claimed that it had supported NC after Congress withdrew support to it. Later, BJP also announced withdrawal of the support to NC. In a letter to a senior officer in Kargil who was also the chief executive officer of LAHDC, BJP informed him about the support withdrawal and demanded dissolution of the council and fresh polls. However, NC continued to have majority with the support of independents and completed the full term of five years in office.

The victory in Kargil polls right now can be a moral boosting for NC and Congress. But where to encash this political advantage is a big question before the two parties. Assembly polls are nowhere in sight in Jammu and Kashmir and the panchayat and urban local bodies polls too may be held after Lok Sabha polls. Going by that scenario, the NC and Congress will have to focus on Lok Sabha polls, scheduled to be held in April – May next year. Since the LAHDC polls are over now, the two parties will chalk out their strategy for Ladakh Lok Sabha constituency also. In 2019 polls BJP had emerged victorious from there. In next election, NC and Congress will try to field a joint candidate against BJP to prevent division of votes. During his recent press conference National Conference vice president Omar Abdullah claimed that all is not well for the BJP even in Leh district also.” Yes, in 2020 LAHDC-Leh polls BJP won as people were happy at that time about Ladakh getting a union territory status. But the situation has changed a lot since then. The people are unhappy now and are protesting in support of their demands. Even a prominent social leader was on hunger strike in support of the demands, “ he said.

After the Kargil poll results, the BJP leadership may also like to review its strategy for the Lok Sabha seats in Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh. The party says it is very much sure to win again the Jammu and Udhampur seats. On the hand political analysts feel that the recent bandh in Jammu against toll plaza and installation of electricity smart meters issues has affected the confidence of the party to some extent.

Kargil results have thrown new challenges for BJP’s expectations for winning the now re-designed Anantnag- Poonch Lok Sabha seat. As per reports, the central government is likely to declare the Paharis as a scheduled tribe (ST) shortly. Since large number of Pahari voters are in Anantnag- Poonch constituency, BJP is expecting to get their support to win the seat. After the Kargil poll results a question is being asked in the political circles now that will the Paharis really vote for BJP even after getting the ST status or will they vote again for other parties including NC.

NC vice president in the recent press conference had alleged that fear in BJP to lose polls is the main reason for delay in assembly polls. He asked the ECI to tell the people in Jammu and Kashmir as to why the polls are being delayed here. He claimed that after the Kargil verdict, no polls will be held in J&K in near future.” I have told my party men not to spend too much fuel on vehicles during their activities as polls will not be held in J&K in near future. Only Lok Sabha polls will be held next year which is a compulsion for BJP,” he said.

Responding to Omar’s allegations, Ravinder Raina denied that BJP is hiding behind election commission of India to delay the assembly polls “ Why should we hide behind the election commission? Why should we be afraid of contesting polls when we have the support of the people across J&K. We are a political party and very much prepared for elections. We are not election commission, which has to take a call on the timing of the polls,” he said.

Author is Senior Editor, Greater Kashmir