The Death of Iran’s President Amidst West Asia Crisis

The death of Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian on Sunday in a helicopter crash occurs at a particularly tense moment in West Asia. The incident comes just weeks after Iran launched a direct drone-and-missile attack on Israel, following a strike on its diplomatic compound in Damascus, attributed to Israel.

Last month’s Iranian assault on Israel marked its first direct attack, prompted by an Israeli airstrike on Iran’s consulate in Damascus that killed a senior commander of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC). Israel retaliated a week later, hitting targets near Isfahan in a calibrated response.

While the direct strikes have since ceased, the proxy conflict persists. Iran-backed militias, including Hamas and Hezbollah, continue their confrontations with Israeli forces. Domestically, Iran faces unrest, with the hardline leadership contending with popular dissent fuelled by the harsh impact of US-led sanctions.

Powers are overshadowed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

Despite the president's significant role, his powers are ultimately overshadowed by those of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who holds ultimate authority over Iran's domestic and foreign affairs.

The sudden death of President Raisi has disrupted the ongoing speculation regarding the succession of the 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whose health has long been a topic of intense interest.

Additionally, a crucial seat must be filled in the Assembly of Experts, the body responsible for selecting the next Supreme Leader. This assembly position, previously held by Raisi, is particularly significant as it plays a role in Iran's consequential transitions of power.

With Raisi’s death, the Iranian constitution stipulates that Vice President Mohammad Mokhbar will assume the role of interim president. New presidential elections must be held within 50 days. This development forces Iran's clerical establishment, led by Khamenei, to identify a new leader to support amid regional tensions and domestic unrest.

The new leader will have to navigate the ongoing proxy conflicts, manage relations with adversaries, and address the discontent brewing within Iran's borders.

The Iranian government today convened an emergency meeting. Vice President Mohammad Mokhber led the session on Monday morning, addressing the immediate steps required in this crisis.

According to the constitution of the Islamic Republic, in cases where the president is unable to perform his duties due to illness, death, or impeachment, the vice president assumes responsibility for running the country.

Mohammad Mokhber will now manage the nation's affairs and, together with the heads of parliament and the judiciary, oversee the organization of a new presidential election within 50 days. This process, however, requires the confirmation of the Supreme Leader, who has ultimate authority over state matters in Iran.

Who is Mohammad Mokhber

Mohammad Mokhber, currently Iran's First Vice President, is expected to be appointed as the interim president by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who holds ultimate authority in all state matters. Mokhber was elected as the first vice-president following the 2021 elections that brought Ebrahim Raisi to power.

The 68-year-old Mokhber is known for his close ties to Supreme Leader Khamenei. He will be part of a three-person council responsible for organizing a new presidential election. Mokhber's influence and alignment with the Supreme Leader have positioned him as a significant figure in Iran's political landscape.

In October, Mokhber visited Moscow, where Iran agreed to supply surface-to-surface missiles and additional drones to Russia's military. This visit highlights his role in strengthening Iran's international alliances, particularly with Russia.

In 2010, the European Union sanctioned Mokhber for his alleged involvement in "nuclear or ballistic missile activities." However, he was removed from the sanctions list two years later. Before his vice presidency, Mokhber headed Setad, an investment fund linked to the Supreme Leader. In 2013, the U.S. Treasury Department added Setad and 37 companies it oversaw to its list of sanctioned entities.

As Mokhber steps into the role of interim president, his close relationship with Khamenei and his extensive experience in both domestic and international affairs will be crucial in navigating Iran through this transitional period.

The government’s response to this crisis will be closely watched, both domestically and internationally, as it navigates the leadership vacuum and prepares for the forthcoming election, all while maintaining stability and continuity in a time of heightened regional tensions and internal dissent.

World Leaders React to Death of Iran's President and Foreign Minister

International leaders have expressed their condolences following the news of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi's death. Here are some of their statements:

Prime Minister Narendra Modi posted on X (formerly Twitter) expressing that he is "deeply saddened and shocked by the tragic demise" of President Raisi. “Deeply saddened and shocked by the tragic demise of Dr Seyed Ebrahim Raisi, President of the Islamic Republic of Iran. His contribution to strengthening the India-Iran bilateral relationship will always be remembered. My heartfelt condolences to his family and the people of Iran. India stands with Iran in the time of sorrow.”

MEA Dr S Jaishankar posted on X expressing “deeply shocked to hear of the Passing away of Iran’s President Dr Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister H Amir-Abdollahian in the helicopter crash. Recall my meetings with them most recently in January 2024.  Our condolences to their families. We stand with the people of Iran at the time of the tragedy.”

President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nayan of the United Arab Emirates conveyed that his country stands with Iran during this difficult time.

Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif described Raisi's death as a "terrible loss" and announced that Pakistan would observe a day of mourning.

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro praised President Raisi as an "unconditional friend and an extraordinary leader."

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov noted that President Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian "were known as true, reliable friends of our country." Lavrov added, "Their role in strengthening mutually beneficial Russian-Iranian cooperation and trusting partnership is invaluable," and expressed that Russia's "thoughts and hearts are with [Iran] in this sad hour."

Syrian President Bashar al-Asaad affirmed Syria's solidarity with the Islamic Republic of Iran and extended condolences to the families of the deceased and their comrades.

Ebrahim Raisi, Iran's president was a hardline cleric closely aligned with Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Born in 1960 in Mashhad, Iran's second-largest city and home to the country's holiest Shia Muslim shrine, Raisi began attending a seminary in the holy city of Qom at the age of 15. As a student, he participated in protests against the Western-backed Shah, who was ultimately overthrown in the 1979 Islamic Revolution led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Following the revolution, Raisi joined the judiciary, serving as a prosecutor in several cities while being mentored by Ayatollah Khamenei, who became Iran's president in 1981. Standing close to the pinnacle of power in the Islamic Republic, Raisi was widely expected to eventually rise to its very top.

Author is National Editor, Greater Kashmir