The complex arithmetic of seats and votes

The long-awaited elections of the Union Territory of J&K have actually come on the orders of the Supreme Court of India in their verdict of 11^th December 2023. In the same verdict the premier court had upheld the verdict of the abrogation of the article 370.

However, before the set deadline of 30^th September for the elections, the central government clipped the powers of the state legislature and handed over to the Lieutenant Governor more power including control over police, public order and appointment and transfer of officials. In addition, the state legislature won’t be able to make laws on education, marriages, taxes, property and forest, amongst others. The playing field had already been made uneven for the Kashmir region by the delimitation exercise by giving 48% seats to Jammu region which has only 44% of the population (Jammu region was given 6 more seats and Kashmir only 1 more).

The elections have begun with the fortune of a quarter of assembly seats already sealed in the ballot boxes. The remaining 66 seats out of a total of 90 will complete the voting process by the 1^st of October. Like in the parliamentary elections held earlier this year, Kashmiris came out in large numbers to cast what analysts described as a “protest vote” against the decision to scrap the region’s limited autonomy in 2019. The classical example was the victory of Engineer Rashid from North Kashmir defeating popular candidates like Omar Abdullah and even the local popular leader Sajjad Gani Lone.

The voting patterns in the UT traditionally have been going on different patterns in the valley and the Jammu region. The sentiment against abrogation of article 370 is very strong in the valley. The people there equate it with loss of identity. One of the important reasons being the way it was imposed, with the valley being virtually isolated and communications with rest of the world totally cut off. There was no consultation regarding this with any representatives of the people, who were put under house arrest.

The sentimental value of the abrogation in the Jammu area was not the same. In fact, in the period following 5^th August 2019 saw some of the Hindu dominated areas celebrating the decision. However, over the years many people are disenchanted with economic stagnation, lack of job opportunities, decisions on Darbar move, toll plazas and the new excise policy. They are often heard asking if the party has not brought meaningful changes in the last 6 years what can one expect from them. Coupled with this is the increasing trend of armed attacks in this area, which was earlier free of it. To them this nullifies the claim that “terrorism has been wiped out from the region”

Despite these diverse differences BJP is hoping to get the major share of Jammu region seats and also are making efforts in the valley. Unlike the Parliamentary elections where they did not put candidates, they are contesting in 19 seats. The combination of National Conference, traditionally a valley-based outfit and the Indian National Congress are also hoping to improve their seat share in Jammu. However so far, their efforts of reaching to the people seems to be lacklustre. On the other hand, both the Prime Minister and the Home Minister have been campaigning quite hard.

For the seats of the Kashmir valley National Conference, a well rooted party is the hot favourite, with its promises of restoring the region’s special status and the repeal of the Public Safety Act (PSA), a controversial law used for detaining people without trial. The party has also promised to seek amnesty for all political prisoners languishing in jails and also pitch for dialogue between India and Pakistan for bringing peace in the region. Omar Abdullah is their Chief Ministerial hope.

People’s Democratic Part (PDP) led by Mehbooba Mufti who was the first woman Chief Minister of the erstwhile state is going alone with her daughter Iltija being their main campaigner. The party is tipped to do well in some South Kashmir constituencies with popular candidates like Waheed ur Rehman Para of Pulwama. It would have been a more competitive combination if NC and PDP had joined hands as was planned in the Gupkar Declaration of August 2019. Their going separately can result in cutting into the votes of the NC giving an advantage to their opponents.

The arithmetic is further complicated by the entry of the groups like Jamaat-e-Islami and the Awami Ittehad Party, led by Engineer Rashid into the electoral fray. The participation of Jamaat as independent candidates is seen by many as a victory for the Indian state because this group was well known to advocate Kashmir’s merger with Pakistan or independence. The combination could be the X Factor having a significant impact on the outcome of the poll. On the other hand, Mehbooba Mufti is also of the opinion that PDP after the result is announced, will be the King Maker.

Much will therefore depend on the performance of the BJP in Jammu area, where they have contested on 43 seats. They are also banking upon granting Schedule Tribe (ST) status to the Pahadi community. Amidst growing anti-incumbency, they have been seen extending reconciliation with many independents who were not given seats and have come up as popular independents. Their mission is to come out as the single largest party and get the invitation to form the government like any other major political party.

We should, however, remember that the common objective of the voters is to seek stability and growth in all the spheres, better education and job opportunities, increase in wages, better living standards and good health. It is therefore vital to choose representatives who can address these day-to-day concerns. The question is - “Is Anybody Capable of Doing it”?

Prof Upendra Kaul, noted cardiologist, Recipient of Padmashri and DR B C