The Change of Rules

What India was experiencing, its existential threat in Punjab and Kashmir in closing decades of the previous century, Pakistan is facing the same in its peripheral state of Balochistan, currently. The latest Jaffar express train hijack has become a turning point for its future trajectory. It is widely claimed by Pakistani Establishment that it would be now ‘Rules of the game change ’, in view of loss of lives and embarrassment to the establishment in Pakistan.

No nation-state can survive only as a security state. The state has to stay engaged in external diplomacy all the time and remain watchful of internal negotiations with political dispensations. The globalization and information technologies have made states open to public and international scrutiny. Misinformation, disinformation and state information have to go through different methods and levels of information, if an individual wants to verify it.

Let us examine ‘the old game plan’, now perceived redundant. Pakistan, since 1958, has remained a security state; its internal policies have been fashioned as anti-India centric, on Kashmir sentiment. The 1965 war proved its debacle in 1971, and 1990s insurgency plan in Kashmir has been the ruin of its social fabric and emergence of sect ridden violent society. In the wake of rigged elections, the ruling political elite are in no command to govern the federation. There is mounting insurgency in Balochistan and law and order problem in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Pakistan establishment blames India, while its think-tanks perceive it; India’s ‘repay turn of 1990s’. Easily they put finger toward Indian intelligence agencies, forgetting it would lead to further complications, rather than easing out of its political crisis.

The fact is that people of Balochistan are not only disappointed with the state of Pakistan, but are angry with it. Despite full of resources, it is the least developed, thinly populated and comprises 44 percent area of Pakistan. Since the signing of the Instrument of Accession to Pakistan by State of Kalat, represented by Yar Khan with Government of Pakistan, the Yar Khan family and other clans opposed it. They were asking for the 1876 status of independent Balochistan. The Balochies, since 1950 till date, have been fighting for their rights. Pakistan, despite use of power, has not been able to crush the movement, resulting in massive loss of human life, and huge number of missing persons.

The political scenario changed when Soviet Union entered Afghanistan in the closing decades of the previous century. Afghanistan became the theatre of war for international big powers. Its ownership by U.S was managed through Pakistan, especially by its Establishment to create religious-political nexus of strategic assets. USSR became its direct target. With U.S and China, both in the lap of Pakistan, Pakistan found its moment of arrival to bleed India in Kashmir. The separate micro mechanism, covertly played by Pakistan, was to oblige China by giving its soil for CPAC project and to use American money and armaments to compel India to negotiate on Kashmir. China’s and U.S interests were common, so long as Soviet Union was to withdraw from Afghanistan and international terrorism was to be curbed.

But covertly, both America and China played their own games that had impact on regional politics also. Pakistan establishment flourished in its power and assets, which led to the decline of political culture; an already weak and vulnerable federation became slackened. Religious frenzy, militant outfits and mushrooming of different cults replaced democratic representative culture. With India’s assertion in Kashmir, Pakistan’s hidden game plan did not remain practical and not even concealed. It has surfaced in multiple complex forms. Anti-India policies proved its nemesis. Its nation building project lost its trajectory with weak financial strength and disconnected civil politics with power. The faulty notion of good Taliban and bad Taliban has boomeranged. It now perceives both as bad Taliban, which has made Pakistan violence riddled. The empowerment of the establishment, with immediate gains in resources and power, destabilized its political culture, weakened judiciary and put curbs on media and expressions. The security paradigm and political distrust remain paramount, subsuming the importance of civic culture and institution building.

The National Action Plan of 2014 was to correct the imbalances of development and look into the grievances of political leaders of Balochistan, especially about the huge list of missing persons. The NAP implementation in full measure was vetoed by the Pak Establishment, in view of Gwadar port and China’s CPAC project. This had brought Chinese presence in the region, which is a perpetual frustration to the locals, who are firm adherents of the faith. America and other powers know it that only religious persuasion can create further wedge, thwarting Chinese interests. So no wonder, these religious outfits get silent support from international agencies. Since 2015, the acts of terrorism and attacks on army installments have increased to an unimaginable level. According to the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) 2025 report, Pakistan has now become the second-most terrorism-affected country in the world. The federation seems to be crumbling in view of legitimacy of political parties, in their ability to connect with public concerns. The foreign funds or public finances have only gone to a few; the vast majority, divided in cults, remains poor and unemployed. This has created chaos of poverty and a section of elite cults, who remain isolated and divided on CPAC project. The writ of the government does not work on peripheral regions.

The Jaffar express tragedy has made power establishment to think of NAP-2 with changed rules of the game. Although the blue print of this plan has not come to public, what is being mumbled is that it means change of regime in Afghanistan and further division of Taliban inside and outside Afghanistan, so that their internal power struggle remains dependent on Pakistan. It might also lead to the strategic strikes inside Afghanistan. Pakistan may seek international approval for it. West perceives Haqqani network in new role. In view of hard line clerics in power in Afghanistan, who are against women rights and modern education, the alternate wing of Taliban is being empowered. Another feature of the change of rule is perhaps to consider late Akbar Bugti’s fifteen point agenda, which was to correct the imbalances and give more share to Balochistan in its resources.

There is no doubt that the old traditional tribal leadership is now being replaced by the new educated middle class leadership, who are internationally exposed and have better understanding of freedom and governance. The rule change game could give Pakistan a space for new ownership to balance big powers in the realms of resource capturing in Balochistan. Pakistan might get trapped again into the vicious circles of dynamics of big powers, previously America against Soviet Union, now China against America, a more complex game for Pakistan. For what? Just to remain engaged in anti-India centric, a purpose of Pakistani establishment to rationalize its hegemony. Pakistan’s escape from miseries is not in anti-India centric policies. Anti-India policies and Kashmir bleeding have ruined it since 1965, without any respite. Financially a wreck and socially broken, it has lost meaning and content for its nation-building project.

If India and Pakistan become friends, it shall augur a new glorious chapter for our peaceful progressive journey of our mutual pride. Pakistan has to think about its ‘Rules change game’ and to look beyond its immediate gain to bleed India. India will watch its paradigm shift, very seriously. It shall be good for our leadership to avail the opportunity that will make big power rivalries meaningless in the region and allow both the countries to strive for a better future. Erasing bad past and visualizing brighter life chances for our future generations is our common interest. It needs statesmanship, which is required from both the sides. If establishment in Pakistan realizes it and India takes it, time is ready to bestow the grace on our leaders.

Prof. Ashok Kaul, Emeritus Professor of Sociology, Banaras Hindu University