Temblors in Himalayas: Alarm bells ringing in J&K as threat of earthquakes looms large

Srinagar, Nov 7: Frequent earthquakes in the Himalayas have set alarm bells ringing in mountainous Jammu and Kashmir which falls among high seismic zones.

On November 4, an earthquake of magnitude 6.4 rattled Nepal leaving over 150 people dead. Two earthquakes jolted the Himalayan country on November 6. Tremors were felt in parts of north India, including the Delhi-NCR region.

Experts have warned that a massive earthquake, exceeding a magnitude of 8.5 can hit the Himalayan region, however, they have not given any timeframe. On April 25, 2015, nearly 9000 people died in the Nepal earthquake measuring 8.1 on the Richter scale. Nepal was also rattled by a deadly earthquake in 1934, in which 8519 people had been left dead.

Being the youngest and tallest, the Himalayas, having the highest mountains in the world, are prone to earthquakes due to the formation and uplift of the mountains. With the convergence of the Indian tectonic plate with the Asian tectonic plate, the Himalayas are developing active faults due to an uplifting process known as continent-to-continent collision. This process is called continent-to-continent collision. The problem is compounded by haphazard constructions and increased human activities in fragile zones in the Himalayas.

Kashmir lies between the Great Himalayan Range to the northeast and the Pir Panjal Range to the southwest. This year J&K was rattled by many earthquakes and frequent temblors have set alarm bells ringing with experts calling for increasing preparedness levels to minimise loss of lives in case of high magnitude temblors.

J&K falls under the high seismic Zones IV and V, making it vulnerable to earthquakes. A powerful 7.6 magnitude earthquake rattled J&K on October 8, 2005, claiming 1350 lives and causing massive destruction to structures.

“We must learn lessons from earthquakes and increase our preparedness level for better disaster management. J&K is always at risk of earthquakes as it falls in high seismic zones. We cannot prevent earthquakes but just prevent loss of lives or minimise damage,” noted geologist Prof G M Bhat told Greater Kashmir.

Prof Bhat, who has carried out extensive studies on earthquakes in J&K, called for organising massive awareness campaigns about earthquakes.

“There is a need to educate people about earthquakes. We have to understand that earthquakes are unlike rain, snowfall, or windstorms and can’t be predicted. There is no warning or timeframe for earthquakes but these can strike anytime and we need to be mentally prepared for it,” he said. “We must go for traditional types of constructions which can sustain earthquakes rather than going for concrete constructions which are unsafe in high seismic zones like J&K.”

Experts are worried about the increasing tectonic activity in quake-vulnerable areas like the Pir Panjal and the Zanskar range of mountains. On April 30 this year, an earthquake of magnitude 4.1 struck J&K.

On May 8, a 3.1-magnitude earthquake jolted Kashmir with its epicentre in Baramulla district. On June 13, an earthquake of 5.4 magnitude struck Chenab Valley, leaving three persons injured and causing extensive damage to over 23 schools and dozens of residential houses. On June 18, back-to-back tremors and aftershocks jolted the Doda district. Subsequently, an earthquake of 4.4 magnitude with epicentre in Bhaderwah town jolted the area. Within six hours another tremor measuring 4.1 was felt, sending the residents into panic. There were nine aftershocks in six days in Chenab Valley.

Experts said that minor earthquakes need to be taken seriously as these are indicators of a looming major earthquake.

Prominent geoscientist Abdul Majeed Butt called for enhancing disaster management techniques.
“We should never forget the horrible memories of October 8, 2005, which caused devastation, especially in Uri. The cause was attributed to non-reinforced concrete buildings and recurring landslides. Since then we have been regularly witnessing earthquakes in J&K, Afghanistan, Nepal, and other neighbouring places,” Butt told Greater Kashmir.

Over 13,000 people died in a 7.7 magnitude earthquake in 2001 in Gujarat. A powerful earthquake of 7.8 magnitude rocked Turkey and Syria on February 6 this year, leaving around 11,000 dead while hundreds of buildings were toppled like a pack of cards.

“You cannot stop earthquakes but manage and improve disaster management techniques to minimise damages,” Butt said.

Butt, who has worked on various mining projects in Doda, said that the stability of the region geologically was highly fragile and needed consolidation.

Elaborating, he said, that plates had added up huge underground pressure which needs to vent and causes tremors.

Butt said local factors were responsible for earthquakes and other disasters.

“Induced mechanical means disturb the core strength of the earth, causing such jerks with minor changes,” he said.

Earlier this year, big cracks appeared in several houses in the mountainous Nai Basti area of Thathri in the Doda district of Chenab Valley, creating panic among the residents. The situation was similar to Joshimath, a hilly town in the north Indian state of Uttarakhand a few months ago where over 1000 houses cracked, crumbled, and caved in, rendering families homeless.

Doda has emerged as one of the most eco-fragile areas in J&K due to its unique geo-climatic conditions. It is prone to earthquakes and witnesses frequent low-intensity quakes.
Butt said that the situation was aggravating from the Mohimangat-Shopian axis across Pir Panjal and Sumcham Padder, and Padam Zanskar besides the main axis of Doda-Kulgam periphery. Uri, Bijhoma and Aharbal are on earthquake fault lines.

“Earthquakes are literally beneath us,” Butt said.

An important study by a prominent US-based seismologist Roger Bilham has warned that Kashmir is likely to be hit by an earthquake of the largest ever magnitude 9, but did not specify any timeframe.

Bilham, who carried out extensive studies in J&K has cautioned that the major quake with magnitude 9 is likely to trigger landslides that would dam the Jhelum River, which drains from Kashmir onto the other side of the Line of Control (LoC).

“That could put Kashmir under water within three months – and will also threaten disastrous flooding in Pakistan if the waters were released too quickly. The two nations should develop a cooperative plan to deal with the aftermath of a Kashmir mega-quake,” Prof Bilham has stated in the study.

He had maintained that his Global Positioning System (GPS) data readings reveal that the gradual movement of rocks in the Zanskar mountains, north of the Kashmir valley, show that earlier estimates of the maximum possible quake in the region were too low.

“In this region, the Indian plate is slowly burrowing under the Tibetan plateau. Studies on where the relative movement of the Tibetan plateau was slowest indicate where compression is building up, and a rupture is eventually likely to occur. I expected this to be in the Pir Panchal range, to the south of the Kashmir valley, but instead, it was in the Zanskar range to the north,” his study revealed. “This means that the zone likely to rupture when a quake eventually happens could be 200 km wide, rather than about 80 km, as was previously thought. The zone would encompass Kashmir valley – including the city of Srinagar, home to some 1.5 million people. If slippage occurs over a length of 300 km, as is possible, a mega-quake of magnitude 9 is the likely result. Given building codes and population in the region, that could mean a death toll of 300,000 people.”

Experts recommend that the development of buildings and settlements on unconsolidated materials, moraines and narrow valleys in the tectonically active zones should be discouraged throughout the hilly regions in the Himalayas including J&K as these were unsuitable for the purpose.

The National Centre for Seismology, under the Ministry of Earth Sciences, maintains round-the-clock monitoring of earthquake activity in and around the country, with a particular focus on the Himalayan regions, known for their high seismic potential.

The J&K government has also set up an Emergency Response Centre to start rescue and rehabilitation during natural disasters.