Tariffs and Triumph: India’s Habit of Growing Under Pressure

History may not repeat itself, but in India’s case, it often rhymes. Over the past seven decades, India has faced numerous existential and structural crises. Military confrontations, economic sanctions, global pressure, and domestic shortfalls. Experience suggests India was never weakened by these episodes. In reverse, India has consistently emerged stronger, more self-reliant, and better positioned for the future. Each crisis has served as a forging of resilience, reform, and renewal. This ability to convert adversity into opportunity is not mere rhetoric, it is backed by a pattern of historical evidence and hardworking, thinking, Godfearing civilisation. There is some inbuilt DNA of the population to resurface stronger.

For example, the 1962 war with China was a shock to India’s post-independence confidence. India, at that time, was ill-prepared, under-armed, and politically miscalculated. The then-debacle in the Himalayas exposed critical gaps in military readiness and national defence planning. But the aftermath marked a turning point. India embarked on a comprehensive reorganisation of its armed forces, began investing in border infrastructure, and launched a long-term process of military modernisation. The seeds of India’s present-day defence strength were sown in that moment of national humiliation. By the time the 1965 war with Pakistan erupted, India was much better prepared. The 1965 war demonstrated India’s increased strategic competence, better military skills to fight and defend not only our borders, but also to push the enemy away. Just six years later, in 1971, India decisively defeated Pakistan in a two-front war that led to the creation of Bangladesh. It was not just a military triumph, but a geopolitical assertion. At that time, Pakistan received much substantial support from the United States and China. India stood firm, aided in part by its Treaty of Peace, Friendship, and Cooperation with the Soviet Union. The war elevated India’s standing in global affairs and marked its emergence as a regional power capable of shaping outcomes. These wars did more than redraw borders; they reshaped India’s defence doctrine. Defence production began to shift from dependency to self-sufficiency. India’s defence research organisations like DRDO gained momentum, and new industrial complexes were built to support indigenous production.

Another defining moment came in 1998, when India conducted a series of underground nuclear tests at Pokhran. Even then, the international response was punishing, led by the United States, a host of Western countries imposed economic and technological sanctions. India was pushed to the diplomatic periphery and faced short-term economic strain. At that time India was not that strong what India is today. Still, rather than retreating, India doubled down on strategic autonomy. The sanctions triggered domestic innovation in critical sectors, especially nuclear energy, defence research, and space technology. Indigenous missile systems like Agni and Prithvi saw rapid development. Within a few years, India had not only weathered the storm but emerged with greater strategic clarity and self-reliance. The tests also forced the world to reckon with India’s reality as a nuclear power.

Over time, many of the very countries that sanctioned India began courting it as a responsible stakeholder in global security. The same is the story of India facing economic crises. In the most difficult times, India grew stronger and rewired its financial DNA. In 1991, India faced a severe balance-of-payments crisis. With barely enough foreign reserves to cover three weeks of imports, the country had to airlift gold to stave off default and debt. India, in this difficult situation, was not morally down but used the moment to unleash bold liberalisation reforms under then-finance minister Manmohan Singh. Tariffs were slashed, the rupee was devalued, the licensing regime was dismantled, and foreign investment was welcomed. What began as a desperate bailout turned into a foundational shift in India’s economic philosophy. The rest is a picture in front of us. In the next three decades, those reforms powered India’s rise as one of the fastest-growing  economies in the world, lifted millions out of poverty, and built a globally competitive private sector. The world recognises India today as one of the most successful and self-sufficient economies.

Now, fast forward to the present. India launched Operation Sindhoor on May 10 in response to the Pahalgam terror attack. India, within hours, was again able to rewrite history. India showcased a powerful demonstration of military precision, intelligence capabilities, and, crucially, the effectiveness of its indigenous defence systems. For the first time, India deployed AI-enabled targeting and surveillance drones, autonomous but man-controlled ground vehicles, and advanced communication jammers, all developed and produced within India.

These technologies were not just proof of concept; they delivered real-time battlefield advantage. In three months since the operation, India’s defence sector has seen a renewed push. Procurement orders have shifted decisively toward domestic manufacturers. HAL, BEL, and private players like Bharat Forge and L&T have reported spikes in demand for next-generation systems. The Ministry of Defence has unveiled new tenders specifically for AI-integrated systems and unmanned and manned platforms, encouraging private start-ups and MSMEs to participate. This is not a one-off. It signals a structural transition: from being one of the world’s largest arms importers to becoming a defence manufacturing hub. India’s indigenous weapons ecosystem is no longer aspirational, it is operational. This growth is again one of India’s stories of emergence in crisis.

Now, with Donald Trump, whom the country trusted, comes another test of a different nature. US President Donald Trump has unpredictably renewed, weaponised and imposed steep tariffs on Indian goods, including pharmaceuticals, textiles, and electronics. While disruptive in the short run, these measures should not be seen as a blockade but as an invitation to recalibrate. India has historically responded to economic coercion not with retreat but reform. The Trump tariffs must be treated the same way. India again needs to look inwards. Instead of over-relying on access to Western markets, India should double down on local manufacturing, strengthen supply chains, and diversify export destinations. Countries like Vietnam, Mexico, South Africa, and Brazil, also caught in Washington’s trade dragnet, present fertile ground for new economic alliances. At the same time, India’s robust domestic market, its thriving digital economy, and its youthful workforce give it a unique edge. Schemes like Production-Linked Incentives (PLI) must be aggressively expanded. Public procurement should prioritise ‘Make in India’ goods. If India can maintain policy stability and ease of doing business, it can become a global manufacturing alternative, not just to China, but to a politically volatile United States.

Swadeshi 2.0 – More Than a Slogan

There is now a compelling case to revisit the idea of “Swadeshi” not as an isolationist cry, but as a modern economic framework. Swadeshi 2.0 is about building self-sufficiency in critical sectors: semiconductors, EVs, green hydrogen, medical devices, and defence platforms. It means owning the value chain from research to final product. Crises like Trump’s tariff war can catalyse this vision. Much as the 1991 reforms unshackled Indian enterprise, today’s challenge can trigger the next wave of structural change, toward technology-led, export-driven, quality-controlled, innovation-fuelled growth. The arc of India’s history makes one thing clear: the country does not buckle under pressure. It transforms. India has shown a remarkable ability to not just bounce back, but leap forward. These are not accidents.

They reflect a deep-seated cultural resilience, a maturing political statecraft, and an increasingly confident industrial base. Today, India is the world’s fourth or fifth-largest economy. It is the fastest-growing major economy. It has the third-largest military by personnel, the fourth-largest air force, and one of the most ambitious space programs. And it is increasingly recognised as a credible geopolitical voice, whether in the Indo-Pacific, at G20 summits, or in climate negotiations.  India must do what it has always done best: rethink, reform, and rise. The Trump tariffs should be treated not as a punishment, but as an opportunity to accelerate self-reliance, deepen regional trade partnerships, and reduce strategic vulnerabilities. If India embraces this challenge with clarity and courage, the next few years could witness another structural leap, just as in 1991 and 1998. The lesson of history is not that India survives crises, it grows through them, as we all know this standing in the past was not gifted, it was earned, crisis by crisis.

Surinder Singh Oberoi, National Editor Greater Kashmir