Syria’s Civil War claims 300 lives, including 20 civilians

New Delhi, Dec 1: After years of relative calm, the residues of Syria’s civil war have been reignited dramatically. Rebel forces, led by the radical group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), launched a lightning offensive that has taken large parts of Aleppo from government control for the first time since 2016. This unexpected surge has created the most significant escalation in the conflict in years, toppling the fragile status quo in the northwest of the country.

Aleppo’s Fall

Several media outfits reported that the offensive was quite surprising and unfolded rapidly. Starting earlier this week, HTS and allied factions attacked from multiple directions, over Syrian army positions in Aleppo and Idlib provinces. The Syrian military, caught off guard, admitted to losing dozens of soldiers in the fierce battles. By December 01, Sunday, Aleppo’s key districts had fallen to the rebels, and the Syrian army announced a “temporary troop withdrawal” to regroup and fortify defensive lines.

This setback is a blow to the Assad regime, which had portrayed its recapture of Aleppo in 2016 as a turning point in the war. The city, once Syria’s economic hub, had been a bloody battleground for years before falling to government forces, backed heavily by Russian airpower and Iranian-backed militias. Now, Aleppo’s loss underscores the vulnerabilities that remain in Assad’s grip on power.

Russia, Assad’s staunchest ally, came to its rescue and responded on Saturday. Russian jets conducted their first strikes on Aleppo in nearly eight years, targeting rebel positions and infrastructure. Additional strikes in Idlib and Hama aimed to disrupt the rebels’ advance southward. UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported that the bombardments killed four people and injured 50 in the city of Idlib alone.

Russia’s intervention despite its ongoing conflict with Ukraine suggests that its ongoing role as the Assad government’s guarantor continues. It also raises questions about the sustainability of this support. Russia says it remains committed to propping up the Syrian regime despite its focus on Ukraine.

Political observers suggest that this shift in priorities may have contributed to the rebels sensing an opportunity to strike.

At the heart of this offensive is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a group with a complex and evolving history. Originally formed as an al-Qaeda affiliate under the name Jabhat al-Nusra, HTS rebranded itself in 2016 after breaking ties with the global jihadist network. While it remains a hardline radical group, its ambitions are now largely confined to establishing control within Syria rather than pursuing a global caliphate.

For years, HTS has been the dominant power in Idlib province, acting as both a military force and de facto government. HTS has faced several times according to the international media internal strife and allegations of human rights abuses, but it has shown little interest in reigniting a broader conflict. Analysts suggest that recent disruptions to Iran-backed militias, long a cornerstone of Assad’s ground forces, may have encouraged HTS to exploit the Syrian army’s weakened state.

The current violence and fighting highlight the reality of Syria’s conflict. Assad’s regime presently controls most of the country’s major cities, vast areas remain beyond its reach.

In addition, Kurdish forces maintain autonomy in the northeast, where U.S. troops provide support. Also, some of the remnants of the Islamic State persist in the vast Syrian desert, posing intermittent threats.

Idlib, the epicentre of the current offensive, is home to approximately four million people, many of them displaced by earlier stages of the war. The province has been governed by HTS and other rebel groups since a 2020 ceasefire brokered by Russia and Turkey. This agreement did bring a ceasefire but failed to resolve tensions or bring any relief.

The revival of the present conflict and surprise attack by rebels has regional and global implications. Iran is a key ally of Assad and has reaffirmed its support, with its foreign minister declaring solidarity with the Syrian government.

However, Tehran’s influence in the present ongoing West Asia conflict has been weakened as is true for Hezbollah, who also suffered setbacks from Israel’s recent offensive in Lebanon.

The United States blamed the current escalation on Assad’s reliance on Russia and Iran and his failure to implement UN-backed peace efforts.

While Turkey, which has supported some rebel factions, has yet to respond directly to HTS’s actions but remains a key player in shaping Idlib’s future.

The renewed fighting has already taken a heavy toll. More than 300 people, including at least 20 civilians, have been killed since the offensive began on Wednesday, according to SOHR. The streets of Aleppo are choked with families fleeing the violence, their cars piled high with belongings. Inside Idlib, makeshift hospitals struggle to cope with the influx of wounded civilians, many of them victims of airstrikes.

The humanitarian crisis in northwest Syria, already awful after years of conflict, is likely to worsen. International aid organisations warn that the displacement of tens of thousands of people will strain resources in a region that has long relied on cross-border humanitarian assistance.

As the Assad government scrambles to regroup, questions loom about the long-term implications of this offensive. Will this be a fleeting success for HTS, or does it signal the start of a broader resurgence in Syria’s civil war?

For now, Assad has vowed to retake Aleppo and defend Syria’s “territorial integrity.” His military, supported by Russian airpower, is preparing for a counteroffensive.

In Syria, even after 13 years of bloodshed and the deaths of over half a million people, Syria’s war remains unresolved. For its people, the cycle of violence, displacement, and despair shows no sign of abating.