Super Tuesday Showdown

With the completion of all seven phases of the Lok Sabha polls, which stretched for around two months and faced several challenges such as adverse weather conditions, storms, heatwaves, and coinciding with children’s examinations, all eyes are now on the outcome – results. The results emerging from this election will shape India’s future political trajectory.

As the nation awaits the results on June 4, 2024, the political stakes are higher than ever. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) aim for a historic third consecutive term. At the same time, the opposition, led by the Congress and Samajwadi Party (SP) alliance, seeks to challenge the ruling party’s dominance. With Uttar Pradesh playing a critical role and the stock market closely watching the outcome, the results will significantly impact India’s forthcoming political and economic landscape.

This eagerly anticipated event will culminate on Super Tuesday, June 4. The counting of votes will begin at 8 AM, with initial trends expected to emerge by noon. However, a clearer picture will only be available by late afternoon.

In the 2019 elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and its allies achieved a sweeping victory with 353 of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of the parliament. This time, the BJP has set an ambitious target of securing 400 seats. Despite various poll predictions from informal sources like Satta Bazar to professional analysts, media houses, and political parties, the entire world, along with the stock market, is keenly watching the results of the largest democratic election.

Prime Minister Modi, after completing an exhaustive campaign cycle that included over 200 rallies and thousands of kilometres of travel across the country, took a 45-hour retreat for meditation at the Vivekananda Rock Memorial in Kanyakumari from May 30 to June 1. This retreat, coming ahead of the election results, holds significant spiritual and symbolic importance for his followers. Modi’s visit to Kanyakumari, where Swami Vivekananda once meditated and envisioned a developed India, highlights Modi’s commitment to Swami Vivekanand’s vision of a “Viksit Bharat ‘’ (Developed India).

The BJP, heavily relying on Modi’s popularity, seeks to achieve a super-majority in the Lok Sabha. Modi’s appeal remains strong; he is more popular than any other leader globally. However, this election campaign saw a shift from focusing on economic growth and infrastructure to issues like caste, religion, and constitutional changes, particularly as the opposition highlighted concerns over the BJP’s perceived “Hindutva” agenda and potential “constitutional amendments.”

The opposition, particularly the Congress and its allies within the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), remains hopeful that the BJP and its alliance will not reach their “400 Par” goal. The opposition’s campaign emphasized constitutional integrity and social justice, countering the BJP’s dominance with concerns about preserving India’s diverse cultural and religious fabric.

The polls saw nearly 1 billion eligible voters with a 62-64% turnout. Administering such a vast election is a remarkable achievement, requiring a coordinated effort of administrators, police, and paramilitary forces to ensure a fair and free election process across more than 1 million polling stations, some of which are extremely remote.

If Modi and the BJP secure, as expected, another term, it will mark Modi’s third consecutive term as Prime Minister, setting a record. The BJP’s dominance over the past 10 years as rulers has been notable, but this election also underscores the potential for regional parties and coalitions to challenge the ruling party’s stronghold, particularly in southern states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala, where the BJP has struggled against regional competitors.

The focus after June 4 will shift towards the selection of cabinet ministers and addressing the diverse needs of its population, balancing economic development with social justice, and navigating the complexities of India’s multifaceted society. The results of June 4 will not only determine the immediate political scenario but also set the tone for future electoral strategies and governance models in the world’s largest democracy.

Uttar Pradesh - Battleground

Uttar Pradesh (UP), with a population of approximately 26 crore, is India’s most populous state. The state’s immense political significance is highlighted by its 80 MPs in the 543-member Lok Sabha, making it critical for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s bid for a third consecutive term.

Often stated, “the way to Delhi is through UP,” the state’s political sway is evident as eight of India’s former prime ministers have represented it. Modi, who chose Varanasi as his constituency in 2014, aims to retain his seat this year. The BJP secured 71 seats in 2014 and 62 in 2019 in UP, with leaders ambitiously targeting over 70 seats in 2024. Modi has campaigned vigorously across UP but faces a significant challenge from the Congress and Samajwadi Party (SP) alliance. While both sides have made bold claims, analysts note that recent elections in UP have favoured the BJP but with competition. As election results are awaited, UP’s performance will be closely watched, as it could determine the national election outcome, reinforcing the state’s role as the pivotal battleground in Indian politics.

Stock Market and Lok Sabha Election 2024

The stock market has also been highly reactive during the election season, with investors anticipating policy continuity under the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Despite initial volatility and concerns over voter turnout, analysts maintain a positive outlook, expecting market gains post-election. The market will soon shift its focus to the Union Budget, where economic policies on taxation, consumption, and savings will be scrutinised.

The Indian stock market entered the Lok Sabha election 2024 expecting that the incumbent government, led by the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), would remain in power. This anticipation of policy continuity has already been factored into the market. Various opinion polls have projected the NDA to win between 315 and 329 seats, while the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) is projected to win between 93 and 156 seats, indicating a low likelihood of the opposition returning to power.

Analysts attribute investor confidence to improvements in macroeconomic variables and the government’s focused approach to infrastructure development while maintaining fiscal prudence. However, the election season has introduced heightened volatility in domestic equities. Concerns over low voter turnout initially spooked the markets, and volatility picked up sharply with the onset of the election.

Despite this, brokerage firms maintain a positive outlook, expecting healthy gains to follow the election results on June 4, and suggesting that any market dips should be viewed as buying opportunities. Policy continuity is expected to ensure that the government’s focus remains on infrastructure development and manufacturing, benefiting sectors such as defence and capital goods.

Post-election, the market’s attention will shift to the Union Budget, likely to be presented in July. The Union Budget will be highly anticipated, with the industry closely watching potential changes in taxation. Manifestos from leading parties have common expenditure themes, but divergent views on issues like wealth and inheritance taxes could impact stock index movements. There is potential for lowering income tax slabs and rationalizing GST rates to spur both consumption and savings.

The Indian stock market anticipates healthy gains post-election, supported by policy continuity and a focus on infrastructure development. While volatility has been a feature of the election season, the market is expected to stabilize, with a keen eye on upcoming policy announcements and the Union Budget.

Ultimately, the results of the 2024 elections will shape India’s political and economic path, balancing the diverse needs of its population while striving for sustainable growth. The new government’s approach to infrastructure development, social justice, and economic policies will be critical in navigating the complexities of India’s multifaceted society and driving the nation forward.

Author is National Editor,

Greater Kashmir.