Steering Challenges, Strengthening Bonds
As President Donald Trump took oath on his second term in office, his administration's renewed focus on an "America First" agenda is set to pose both challenges and prospects for India. However, uncertainty continues amongst the Indian immigrant community, especially those with H1-B visas.
President Trump so far has largely remained silent on South Asia in his inaugural speeches and initial policy outlines. His administration's actions speak volumes about the evolving Indo-U.S. relationship. An immediate meeting of QUAD ministers is seen of India's strategic importance, especially as a key player in the Indo-Pacific and a crucial partner in the Quad, ensuring that bilateral relations will continue to develop—albeit under the strain of new policies and geopolitical realities.
The Diplomatic Optics
The invitation extended to External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar to attend the presidential inauguration and his first-row seat directly facing Donald Trump highlights the significance Washington attaches to its ties with New Delhi.
One also saw that within hours of the ceremony, Dr S Jaishankar was engaged in high-level talks with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Jaishankar, in a follow-up Press briefing with media persons said, “Meetings with Secretary Marco Rubio as well as NSA Waltz a lot of our discussion centred on the bilateral side. And, you know, in many ways I think between us and the Trump administration we approach the world both with a clear-eyed sense of our national interest… mutuality of benefits in any interaction.”
While emphasising trust between India and the US, Jaishankar added, “I think we have a very strong degree of trust today between India and the United States, a very high level of convergence of our interests, and a sense that while we serve our national interests, while we build our bilateral partnership, definitely on regional issues and global issues, there is a lot of good that we can do. So that sense of global good was also very evident conceptually in what we discussed.”
It signals mutual respect and showcases a way forward and a desire to work together. India has a good reputation with Rubio, who has consistently advocated for stronger ties with India and provides an encouraging backdrop for future engagements.
Many analysts see Rubio's appointment as bringing a new chapter in U.S. foreign policy. His leadership will be under the lens while addressing the United States' pressing international challenges.
India will host the upcoming Quad Leaders' Summit later this year, offering an opportunity to reinforce cooperation with the United States, Japan, and Australia in countering China's growing influence in the region.
Despite the overtures, Trump's protectionist policies and emphasis on economic nationalism could strain relations, especially in the areas of trade and immigration. The United States has already announced a series of executive orders covering energy, trade, border security, and immigration—many of which are going to impact India.
Immigration Policy: A Stumbling Block
One of the major concerns for India is the Trump administration's renewed push to clamp down on undocumented immigration. As we know, thousands of Indians are living in the United States without legal papers. There has been a proposed deportation of an estimated 18,000-20,000 individuals. External Affairs Minister Jaishankar has affirmed India's commitment to legal migration while emphasising the need for a balanced approach to deportation.
While replying to one of the questions, Jaishankar explained that India has a position on mobility, which is a principled position and applies to all countries. “As a government, we obviously are very much supportive of legal mobility because we do believe in a global workplace. We want Indian talent and Indian skills to have the maximum opportunity at a global level.”
While showcasing opposition to illegal mobility and illegal migration, he added, “When something illegal happens, many other illegal activities get joined onto it, and this is not desirable, it's certainly not reputationally good. So, with every country, and the U.S. is no exception, we have always taken the view that if there are any of our citizens who are not here legally if we are sure that they are our citizens, we have always been open to their legitimate return to India “
Starting his second term with a flurry of executive orders, US President Donald Trump has sought to revoke birthright citizenship – automatic citizenship of children born in the US to non-citizen parents. Among the first few ‘Presidential Actions’ listed by the White House on its website, the order titled ‘Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship’ specifies that those who were born in the US “but not subject to the jurisdiction thereof” are excluded from birthright citizenship. A federal judge temporarily blocked Trump's executive order denying birthright citizenship to the children of undocumented people or those in the US. Now, Trump says his administration will appeal the ruling.
The Indian-American community, which is one of the fastest-growing immigrant populations in the US, will be profoundly impacted by this change as and when it comes through. It has already given anxiety to many expected mothers and if media reports are to be believed, many of them are going for preterm birth surgery before February 20, the deadline for birthright citizenship.
Also, the move to tighten H-1B visa regulations presents another challenge as many Indians working in the United States face uncertainty more so the Indian professionals, who form the backbone of the U.S. technology sector. Long visa processing times—currently exceeding 400 days—further complicate matters, discouraging skilled Indian talent from pursuing opportunities in the U.S. Jaishankar took this issue with the secretary of state in his first meeting with him and he said that he took note of it.
While the U.S. insists on stricter border controls, India must advocate for a more pragmatic approach, emphasizing the mutual benefits of legal migration and the significant contributions of Indian professionals to the American economy. The upcoming bilateral talks will be crucial in addressing these concerns and finding a middle ground that serves both nations.
Trade Tensions
Trade relations between India and the U.S. have always been a mixed bag. The recent announcement of potential 100% tariffs on BRICS nations has raised concerns in New Delhi about India's continued access to the U.S. market.
India has so far managed to avoid being caught in the crossfire of Trump's aggressive trade measures, but the threat remains. Even though the Trump administration will be busier with priorities which have less impact on South Asia, one should not rule out that the Trump administration may demand greater market access for American goods and services, particularly in the energy and agricultural sectors. In return, India will need to press for favourable terms on IT services, pharmaceuticals, and textiles. India should be well prepared to navigate these challenges without compromising its economic interests.
The Indo-Pacific Strategy
The Indo-Pacific region remains a key area of convergence between India and the U.S. The Quad grouping, which has gained momentum in recent years, continues to be a cornerstone of regional security and economic cooperation.
The joint statement following the recent Quad Foreign Ministers' meeting reiterated a shared commitment to a "Free and Open Indo-Pacific," focusing on maritime security, economic development, and supply chain resilience.
India, which will hold the upcoming Quad Summit presents an opportunity to further align its strategic interests with those of the U.S. and other partners. Strengthening cooperation in critical technologies, defence procurement, and countering China's assertiveness will remain high on the agenda.
The Road Ahead
India must brace for a more transactional relationship with its long-standing partner driven by immediate economic and strategic interests rather than long-term vision.
India needs to be prepared for a more unpredictable and demand-driven U.S. foreign policy that prioritises American interests above all else. The era of broad strategic convergence may give way to harder negotiations, as trade, immigration policies, and India's strategic autonomy like ties with Russia, Iran and other global partners come under scrutiny.
India, in the first term of Trump's rule, achieved major progress in trust and business by deepening defence and economic ties. However, Trump's return to the White House is already bringing some uncertainties and caution.
Indian markets, which initially rallied after Trump's election victory, are now adopting a cautious "wait and watch" approach. Investors remain wary of potential shifts in tax policies, tariffs, and broader trade dynamics, particularly in the context of escalating US-China tensions.
India's policymakers face the challenge of balancing relations with a Trump-led America while maintaining strategic ties with Russia and other global partners.
Analysts monitoring the functioning of Trump suggest that he believes more in bilateralism over multilateral frameworks. India accordingly needs to adopt a more calculated approach in navigating trade negotiations and defence agreements.
Political analysts also caution against complacency, warning that Trump's unpredictable leadership style could introduce volatility in diplomatic engagements. While the previous decades, spanning the Vajpayee, Manmohan Singh, and Obama administrations, Modi – Trump bonhomie witnessed steady consolidation of the India-U.S. relationship culminating in the vision of a "defining partnership of the 21st century." The coming years under Trump 2.0 may require India to recalibrate its strategy to preserve hard-won gains.
The Indian diaspora has been playing a crucial role in building bilateral relationships. It could further play a pivotal role in shaping engagement under Trump's leadership. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has consistently advocated for closer ties with the U.S. since his first term in 2014. The future meetings between Modi and Trump, perhaps in Paris in February 2024 on the sidelines of the AI summit and then in India over the QUAD meeting are going to shape up the relationship keeping in view the shifting geopolitical landscape.
India has an advantage. They already have institutional mechanisms, such as the 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue and the Trade Policy Forum. It needs increased dialogue that can help address contentious issues and strengthen further the bilateral relationships that once existed in the “Howdy-Modi” mood at the Houston rally in 2019. The strategic convergence in the Indo-Pacific, coupled with India's growing economic clout, ensures that the relationship will continue to evolve.
Donald Trump looks in a hurry, and as said in his election speeches, he is signing executive orders and taking decisions on several initiatives that he wants to take right at the very beginning to create that big impact.
Political analysts caution that one can expect the unexpected from Trump. So, no one is sure how the relationship between India and the US is going to turn in the future despite robust gains in India and the US relationship that took place during the first tenure of Trump's rule in the US.