Start a dialogue between Jammu and the Valley 

It’s time to see and recognize the reality.  National Conference has all the reasons to celebrate its victory in the Assembly elections held in Jammu and Kashmir  after a gap of 10 years - more than six of which were consumed by the bureaucratic rule.

It is still not clear whether the bureaucrats would be submitting completely to the newly elected government in the manner they used to in the previous  political governments. This time  almost all powers are vested in  Lieutenant Governor and some of the BJP leaders have made it clear that the new Government will have to work as per the roles specified in J&K Reorganization Act, underlining that the statehood may not be possible in the foreseeable future.

The new government will have to do something to incentivize Centre to fulfil this wish of  a majority of voters in Kashmir. BJP has  already started giving explanations for the vote in Jammu – validation of Article 370  and  dismantling of the statehood. There is some kind of desire and compulsion in some quarters in Jammu   to think of the region’s future as a separate entity – independent of Kashmir. They are quite vocal and passionate, like Buddhists  in Ladakh used to be once,  about their separation from Kashmir. 

Chief Minister designate  Omar Abdullah  has made a right kind of noise about his intentions to  work in coordination with Delhi to keep  J&K moving forward. He has also promised that he would be working as much for Jammu - where BJP has won  all  its 29 seats - as for the Kashmir Valley that voted overwhelmingly for National Conference. These are sensible words, deserving due appreciation.

In statistical terms, National Conference has won a clear majority – it scored outright victory on 42 seats and with four independents joining the party, its tally has gone  up to 46 . BJP, on the other hand, because of its  big  win the Hindu heartland, has 29 seats. There are respective ways of looking at, and interpreting the mandate. NC is selling it as a vote depicting the anger and frustration that visited the Valley in the aftermath of August 5, 2019 decisions – doing away with the Article 370 and bifurcation of the state and demotion of J&K as UT. BJP is explaining it as a victory because of its policies and development that has taken place since the abrogation of Article 370, as also assertion of Jammu’s identity and quest for a larger role in the political decision-making . These interpretations are not unfounded.

Barring few, everyone else has hailed this as a historic verdict of the historic election, perhaps reading history in the atmospherics in which the elections were held in a fear-free atmosphere. The term historic has been used quite profusely as if there was no history before these elections  and there would be none in future. History acquires different connotations and definitions in different times. 

But there is a word of caution; history of some of the previous elections should not be repeated. This is the third time  when such a split verdict has come  with two regions voting in a diametrically opposite fashion, largely owing to the communal considerations. First was in 1983, second in 2014 and now in 2024. But the seeds of the split verdict were sown in 1983, when Jammu was made to fear  “Pakistanis coming from across the border and occupying homes and fields of locals because of the Resettlement Bill passed by  National Conference in the state legislature.” It was the Congress campaign . Kashmir  responded with Muslim unity call with Farooq Abdullah and late Mirwaiz Moulvi Mohammad Farooq  making a common cause. The consequences of both these split verdict polls in 1983 and 2014 are well known. I still believe that had July 2, 1984 not happened, for which the Congress government at the Centre was responsible, there would have been no tragedy  of 1987 elections and what followed thereafter. Rest is history. 

The 2024 Assembly polls present  big challenges and opportunities. The biggest challenge is to keep Jammu and Kashmir together, not only politically but also emotionally. It is needless to emphasize that both NC and BJP will have to  respect each other’s mandate. There is no harm in opening a dialogue  within J&K before urging the Centre to do that. The dialogue between the two major parties in J&K is a national necessity, as neither can work by turning their backs to each other.

There are common points on which both the parties can work together, no matter one is in the government and the other in opposition. This is a unique situation and must be addressed in unique fashion. The whole of the Kashmir Valley and Jammu region are reeling under the problem of unemployment, drug abuse, and mindset of frustration for one  or the other reason. This requires both the parties to sit together and devise a strategy to fast-track recruitment process. 

BJP considers itself as a custodian of national interest and nationalism. It believes in this definition to an extent where others start getting a sense that perhaps it is a must for them to toe the saffron party line to qualify to be real Indians. Others have  been through difficult times too and they have demonstrated their loyalty to the nation  as a matter of belief. Pretensions are dangerous, straightforwardness should be respected.

National Conference  will do a lot of good to itself by recognizing the new reality as it is tasked to govern the two regions with extraordinary challenges. That the election results demand extraordinary skills to govern and keep the passions in control is  just few of the tasks, there is a larger picture which needs to be seen; how to bring the peoples of the two regions together on the common issues.  Words alone will not suffice.

ajoshi57@gmail.com