Speculation mounts over Israel’s response to Iran ahead of Hamas attack anniversary

New Delhi, Oct 5: As Israel faces pressure to retaliate for the Iranian missile strikes earlier this week, U.S. officials are watching closely, concerned that any Israeli response could further destabilise an already volatile West Asia.

According to a senior U.S. State Department official, as quoted by CNN, it is “really hard to tell” if Israel will time its response to coincide with the first anniversary of the October 7 Hamas attacks, an event that marks a significant date in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The official, speaking to CNN said, “We hope and expect to see some wisdom as well as strength, but as you guys know, no guarantees.”

What Israel is thinking, no one knows nor any assurances have been given by Israel’s command that it will avoid targeting Iran’s nuclear sites. Even though, U.S. officials have been vocal in urging caution. U.S. President Joe Biden said at a press briefing that the U.S. would not support Israel targeting Iran’s nuclear program directly. “If I were in their shoes, I’d be thinking about other alternatives than striking oil fields,” Biden said, indicating a preference for more measured responses that avoid escalating the conflict into a wider regional war.

However, there is a delicate balance at play. On one hand, U.S. officials have publicly supported the need for Israel to respond to Iran’s missile attack, recognising that there must be consequences. On the other hand, there is increasing concern in Washington about the potential for an uncontrollable escalation.

Media reported Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell who in a recent address at Think tank, The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said, “Our dominant message is, ‘let’s take great care in whatever we do with respect to Iran.’” He also acknowledged that surprises have occurred in the past months, which highlights the unpredictability of the situation.

CNN reports that U.S. officials have been in near-constant communication with their Israeli counterparts, trying to gauge how and when Israel might act. President Biden remarked that U.S. officials are “in touch with their Israeli counterparts 12 hours a day,” emphasising the gravity of the situation and Washington’s efforts to prevent the conflict from spiralling into a larger war.

Despite these efforts, the timeline for Israeli action remains uncertain. The senior State Department official told CNN that Israel is “not going to make a decision immediately,” suggesting another view that the window for retaliation is still open and could be influenced by a range of factors.

In the broader context, amid heightened tension are increasing concerns about Iran’s nuclear ambitions. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) released a report last Wednesday as quoted by BBC detailing that Iran’s stockpile of low-enriched uranium has far exceeded the limits set by the 2015 nuclear deal.

The IAEA’s findings show that Iran now possesses over 2,442 kilograms of low-enriched uranium, enough, theoretically, to produce two nuclear weapons. The report also raised alarms about Iran’s advanced centrifuges, which have been moved to an underground facility at Natanz, further complicating the prospect of a diplomatic resolution.

With the current difficult situation, the risks are high for the entire region. As tensions bubble, Israel’s decision on how to respond remains critical. A senior official told CNN, the situation remains “on the edge.” Any miscalculation could spark a wider conflict, dragging in not only Iran and Israel but potentially other regional powers.

With the anniversary of the October 7 Hamas attacks approaching, some U.S. officials have suggested that Israel may avoid retaliating on the exact date to preserve the solemnity of the event. “I think in some ways they would want to avoid the seventh, so in my estimation if there is anything it would likely be before or after,” said the State Department official to CNN.

This could offer a brief window for further diplomatic engagement, though it is unclear how long tensions can be managed before military action becomes inevitable.

As the world watches closely, the next steps taken by Israel, the U.S., and Iran will be key in determining whether the region moves toward de-escalation or deeper conflict.