South Asia: Mapping the Contemporary Geopolitical Horizons
There is a lot of chatter amongst the strategic community about the recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit hosted by China, given the timing of the summit amid the ongoing India-US tariff issues and failed meeting between President Putin and Donald Trump. The success of the SCO summit has flooded the headlines, yet no summit—whether SCO, or SAARC, can mask the deeper vulnerabilities that define South Asia today. It may be premature to hail such geopolitical developments or project it as some Asian resurgence, because South Asia remains trapped in a cycle of political fragility, economic distress, and unresolved conflicts.
South Asia is caught in the hard and rock surface where democracy, economic uncertainty and social inequalities pose existential challenges to the state apparatus and hence any peace endeavor with the exception of India. Nepal is yet again rattled by monarchist mobilisations, which threaten to undo the gains of republicanism. Bangladesh faces a severe political and governance crisis, with radical elements and anti-minority tendencies eroding democratic space and any future peace prospects remain grim and gloomy. Pakistan, perpetually oscillates between Mullahs and Military, fragile and failing civilian rule, and hence remains on a knife’s edge. Its economic woes, ethnic strife in Balochistan and military compound its political instability. Myanmar hasn’t revived after the fall of democratic government and bleeds into the South Asian strategic map, where its post-coup turmoil has displaced thousands and provided new ground for insurgencies, opening new floodgates of regional conflicts and global power interference.
The fragility of these democracies and economic distress is not an accident. It is rooted in the unfinished projects of state formation, weak institutions, and the overbearing role of militaries and ruling elites. When politics becomes a zero-sum game between rulers and opposition, institutions hollow out, leaving little room for compromise. This curated chaos in the region has put the region on a downsliding terrain and people are then forced onto the streets, where violence replaces dialogue, particularly Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Srilanka, where the crisis of legitimacy has increased to unprecedented levels.
Into this landscape enters global power competition. China has steadily expanded its footprint in the region, from infrastructure loans in Sri Lanka to strategic ports in Pakistan and railways in Nepal, although it hasn’t had any credible impact on the region’s socio-economic indices. The United States has been navigating the regional geopolitical developments with utmost caution, pushing India on the tariff issue, hailing the strategic relationship with India but not calling out Pakistan on cross border terror. Russia, though weakened by its Ukraine entanglement, still seeks to use forums like the SCO to remain relevant. For smaller South Asian states, this competition creates deep vulnerabilities where strategic balancing between great powers turn into debt traps, political dependency, and external meddling in domestic disputes and regime changes become an inevitable fate of these states.
India, as the region’s largest democracy and economy, has attempted to position itself as a “net security provider.” but it has increased the costs for her to lead a region that is perpetually on fire. The catastrophic governance failures in Pakistan, Bangladesh or Myanmar are not just neighbourly democratic problems, they spill across borders through refugees, terrorism, narcotics, and human trafficking. Anti-Hindu riots in Bangladesh risk creating new migration flows that India’s border states feel the pressure. Nepal’s political churn opens the door for deeper Chinese influence. Thus, India’s regional diplomacy cannot simply be about high tables; it must address the burning realities of the subcontinent itself.
The future holds bleak for South Asia, lest institutional reform, political accountability, and economic resilience hold the ground. Else the growing youth populations, rapid urbanisation, and digital connectivity will push the region into unmitigated chaos and could erupt into further instability. Unless South Asian states invest in democratic deepening, inclusive governance, and regional cooperation, they risk becoming pawns in the larger geopolitical game.
Mehraj Bhat, researcher in South Asian geopolitics.
