Snowless winters, and water security in Kashmir
For many years, climate change was considered a future problem, but in Kashmir Valley it is now clearly visible, in everyday life. The Valley is experiencing warmer winters, rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, frequent cloudbursts and hailstorms, and longer dry spells. Since the 1980s, the average temperature in Kashmir has increased by about 0.8°C, with a faster rise after 2000. These changes have weakened winter weather systems and are turning snowfall into rainfall, especially at mid-altitudes. At the same time, rapid land use and land cover changes are taking place due to population growth, urban expansion, tourism, and infrastructure development. Farmlands, wetlands, forests, and open areas are being converted into buildings, roads, and commercial spaces, particularly around cities and other towns. Wetlands have been encroached upon, reducing their ability to store water, control floods, and support ecosystems. Forest loss due to deforestation, road construction, hydropower projects, and mining has increased soil erosion, reduced groundwater recharge, and degraded river resource water quality.
Nonetheless, black carbon pollution has also become a serious concern. Emissions from vehicles, old transport systems, biomass burning, brick kilns, and winter heating release fine soot particles floats in atmosphere and at faraway areas, settle on snow and glaciers. This darkens their surface, speeds up melting, and worsens air quality, which is reflected in declining air quality levels across the Valley as witnessed during this winter season frequently. Rapid growth in population and traffic has further increased environmental pressure. More vehicles mean higher fuel use, air and noise pollution, especially in cities and tourist areas. Seasonal tourism adds extra stress on water resources, waste management, and fragile mountain ecosystems.
Together, land use changes, black carbon emissions, and growing human pressure are intensifying the impacts of climate change in Kashmir. These factors are declining snowfall, accelerating snow and glacier melt and weakening natural water systems, increasing the risk of floods, droughts, and long-term water insecurity in the region.
Declining Snow and Glaciers
Kashmir has always relied on winter snowfall, which fed rivers, groundwater, soils, wetlands, and farming. In the past, mountain ranges received regular snow from December to February. This snow melted slowly in spring, providing water during early summer. Today, snowfall has become irregular, shorter, and often turns into rain. This situation, called snow drought, occurs when snow is very low or melts too early due to warmer temperatures. Its effects show up later as reduced river flow, dry soils, and early water shortages. Recent studies show that Himalayan snow cover has dropped to some of the lowest levels in decades, reflecting a long-term climate change trend. The winter of 2024–26, with very little snow and rain, is part of this growing problem. Even the traditional Chillai-Kalan period is now largely snowless, showing how quickly winters are changing in Kashmir.
Less snowfall also directly affects glaciers, because winter snow is needed to balance summer melting. With warmer temperatures and reduced snow, glaciers in Kashmir are shrinking fast. The Kolahoi Glacier, the largest in the Valley and the main source of the Lidder River- a major tributary of the Jhelum river, is a clear example. It has lost about more than 20% of its area between 1962 and 2018 and continues to thin by losing mass. Shrinking glaciers reduce water availability during dry months and threaten drinking water, irrigation, hydropower, tourism, mountain ecosystems, and long-term water security in the region.
Declining Water Resources and Ecosystem Challenges
In Kashmir, declining snowfall and early snowmelt are reducing water flow in rivers and streams. Rivers like the Jhelum, Lidder, and Sind now have lower water levels during summer, increasing water stress when demand is highest. At the same time, short but intense rainstorms raise the risk of floods, meaning the region can face both droughts and floods in the same year. This decline in river flow puts more pressure on groundwater, wetlands, and overall water security. Springs, which are vital for drinking water, irrigation, and feeding rivers, are drying up. Hundreds of springs, including Achabal, Verinag, Kokernag, Panzathnag, Aripal, and Sheerbag etc, are showing very low flow or even drying completely-a situation never seen before. Currently, most of the springs are in drying state during this snowless winter season. Factors like reduced snowfall, irregular rainfall, early snowmelt, deforestation, road construction, tunnelling, riverbed mining, and overuse of groundwater are damaging recharge zones and aquifers. Wetlands and lakes such as Wular, Dal, Anchar, and Hokersar are particularly vulnerable. Snowmelt used to maintain water levels, flush pollutants, and support ecosystems. Now, reduced inflow concentrates pollution, lowers water quality, and harms habitats. Alpine ecosystems are also changing: meadows are shifting, wetlands are shrinking, invasive species are spreading, and habitats for birds, fish, and insects are declining. Together, drying springs, reduced groundwater recharge, and changing snow patterns are creating serious ecological and water challenges across Kashmir.
Socio-Economic Impacts
Water stress is affecting people’s livelihoods. Agriculture and horticulture are already suffering. Snow once protected crops and soil from frost and kept moisture levels stable. Its absence affects apple orchards by reducing chilling hours, disturbing flowering, and lowering yields. Saffron and other crops face increasing moisture stress. Rain-fed farming in upland areas has become uncertain, threatening food security and farmer incomes. Hydropower projects struggle with unpredictable water flow, and winter tourism suffers as reliable snow cover declines. Beyond economics, snow and glaciers are part of Kashmir’s cultural identity. Their loss is also a loss of heritage and connection to the land and water in the region.
Way Forward for Water Security Adaptation
Kashmir is at a critical stage. Rising temperatures, declining snowfall, retreating glaciers, and changing rainfall patterns are creating serious water and ecological challenges. Urgent and long-term action is needed to build climate resilience and tackle the region’s water crisis. A few key measures can be adopted immediately for effective water security management as give below.
Rain and Snow Water Harvesting: Snowfall in the Himalayas is declining, and much winter precipitation now falls as rain instead of snow. This increases water stress because rain quickly runs off and is not stored for later use. Rainwater harvesting is a simple and practical solution. Rain can be captured during the rainy and monsoon seasons and allowed to seep into the ground through well-designed structures. Proper groundwater recharge along natural contours can store water that would otherwise be lost, helping to revive drying springs, restore wetlands, ponds, and other water bodies. Rainwater harvesting should start with government buildings and institutions and gradually extend to households, with rooftop systems where possible. National or state schemes can provide funds, technical guidance, and standard designs. In cold and high-altitude areas, snow-water harvesting can also be adopted. Innovative solutions like artificial glaciers and ice stupas can store winter water and release it slowly during spring and early summer, supporting local water needs.
Other Strategies for Water Security: Winter snow, glaciers, and springs must be treated as vital water resources rather than seasonal features. Scientific monitoring through weather stations, snow gauges, field surveys, and satellites is essential to provide early warnings for droughts, floods, and water shortages. Natural recharge systems such as forests, wetlands, alpine meadows, floodplains, and karewa landscapes must be protected and restored. Strict control is needed on encroachment, unplanned construction, mining, and deforestation. Priority should be given to spring revival through springshed management, groundwater recharge, and protection of karst and limestone zones. Agriculture and horticulture should adopt climate-resilient practices, and infrastructure, roads, hydropower, and tourism projects must follow climate risk assessments to protect fragile ecosystems. Active involvement of local communities, coordination among government departments, and wider use of nature-based solutions are crucial to build long-term water and climate resilience in Kashmir.
Conclusion
Kashmir is facing a climate and water crisis with rising temperatures, declining snow, retreating glaciers, and drying springs. Immediate action through water harvesting, ecosystem restoration, sustainable land use, and community involvement is essential to secure water, protect ecosystems, and build climate resilience for the Valley. Simple actions like rainwater harvesting can make a big difference.
Dr. Riyaz Ahmad Mir, former Sr. Geologist- GSI, Scientist-In-Charge National Institute of Hydrology, Western Himalayan Regional Centre Jammu, J&K.
