Snowfall, better late than never, but...!

After prolonged dry spell, back to back snow spells have rekindled life into Jammu and Kashmir’s depleting glaciers and water resources.

There was an atmosphere of gloom after nearly two months of dry spell with increasing temperatures. But snow spells from the last few days have reset the system, though after passing of the 40-day harshest winter period Chilai Kalan.

We must celebrate the end to the prolonged dry spell, but at the same time worry about erratic climatic patterns in J&K. The due snowfall, which we missed in the last over a month, cannot be compensated by even heavy spells of snow or rains in February.

Snowfall in Chillai Kalan between December 21 and January 29, is considered to be of immense importance for regulating glacier health and stream flows and the region’s water security.

Something is wrong with our eco-system. We must seriously think that how we are responsible for the erratic climatic patterns. At macro level, there has been an influence of El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the climate of J&K. But at the micro level, increasing human activities in J&K’s eco-fragile areas are one of the major triggers of erratic climate.

Recession of glaciers, which are our main sources of water, is a matter of serious concern. Rapid melting of glaciers is bound to enhance serious implications for regional water availability and hydrological regimes.

J&K Himalayas hosts some of the largest glaciers in the Hindu Kush region. Studies indicate that Kolahoi, the largest glacier of Kashmir valley’s Jhelum Basin, is retreating rapidly due to spurt rise in temperature triggered by global warming and extreme pollution. Thajiwas, Hoksar, Nehnar, Shishram, and glaciers around Harmukh are also retreating slowly.

Environmentalists stated that from the last few years, glacier melting in Kashmir and Ladakh regions has been unprecedented. Some studies indicate that glaciers in Kashmir and Zanskar Himalaya in last over a decade have seen the highest melting of glaciers as compared to the rest of the Himalaya and the Alps. The problem has been compounded due to below-normal snowfall during last winter accompanied by high winter temperatures and followed by summer heat waves.

This has triggered high glacier melting.

Kolahoi Glacier, main source of river Jhelum, has lost almost 23 percent of its area since 1962 and has fragmented into smaller parts. The glaciers are losing mass at the rate of about 1.0 m water equivalent annually, which is significantly higher than the glaciers in the rest of the Himalayas. The mass loss of glaciers in J&K amid rising pollution levels is expected to exacerbate in future as a result of the projected climate change, and further diminishing stream flows.

Decreasing precipitation trends and rapid loss of snow cover over Kashmir is like a death blow to our fragile glaciers. As per studies, most of the glaciers have developed crevasses and cracks over the years. Due to glacier recession our food, energy, and water security as well as the dependent livelihoods particularly downstream will be significantly impacted. .

We need to learn lessons from global climate changes. 2023 was the planet’s warmest year on record, according to an analysis by scientists from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). Amid the record breaking heat wave, Antarctic sea ice coverage dropped to a record low in 2023.

In 2022,,Europe witnessed the worst drought in 500 years – a combination of record-breaking temperatures and low rainfall caused rivers to dry, wildfires to rage, and crop failures to compound already high food prices. The Northern Hemisphere in 2022 witnessed severe droughts. As per a study, these droughts were caused by human-caused climate change.

Earth’s average land and ocean surface temperature in 2023 was 2.12 degrees F (1.18 degrees C) above the 20th century — the highest global temperature among all years in NOAA’s 1850-2023 climate record. “The 10 warmest years since 1850 have all occurred in the past decade. In fact, the average global temperature for 2023 exceeded the pre-industrial (1850–1900) average by 2.43 degrees F (1.35 degrees C). Looking ahead, there is a one-in-three chance that 2024 will be warmer than 2023, and a 99% chance that 2024 will rank among the top five warmest years,”

NOAA warns.

Being an eco-fragile zone, J&K is confronted with environmental challenges due to global warming, unplanned urbanisation, deforestation and vandalisation of water bodies. Studies have projected that the Kashmir valley will experience more frequent and prolonged droughts in the future.

The results show that the region will experience more frequent and prolonged dry spells from the mid to end of the 21st century making it a new norm during 2051-2099 due to the climate change.
Climate warming will not only affect the retreat patterns but might affect dependent sectors of the economy that include agriculture, hydropower, and tourism in J&K.

It was after seven years that Kashmir experienced a snowless peak period. Environmentalists have warned that the snowfall deficit and higher temperatures this winter could increase incidence of cryosphere-related hazards like permafrost degradation triggered slope failures, early snow melt. There is also risk of Glacial Lake Outburst floods (GLOF).

Damage we have done to our environment is irreversible, but we can prevent further deterioration. We need to wake up from slumber as the tentacles of climate change have tightened grip on us.

Our existence is at stake. We need to introspect and minimise activities which are detrimental to our eco-fragile environment.

Author is Executive Editor, Greater Kashmir.